Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Lara Putnam Profile picture
@lara_putnam
May 24, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
A tale of two very different kinds of anti-Peduto voters👇 (As a reminder, PA has closed primaries: Tony Moreno's strength among registered Dems in the precincts where Trump did best is both unsurprising* & 👀) Image
*unsurprising because 👇
[also, apparently today is my day to retweet classic @RyanDeto articles from dawn to dusk]
pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/pit…
But Moreno's support in Trump-loving Pgh precincts could only carry him so far, given that nearly 4x as many mayoral votes were cast in precincts where Donald Trump got under 5% of the vote than in precincts where he cracked 50%. [Because A: it's a Dem primary, and B: Pittsburgh] Image
Meanwhile turnout (combining all votes cast) was way up from 4 ys earlier across Pgh's political geography... in contrast to Nov 2020, when votes cast were *down* fr 2016 in Pgh's most anti-Trump (=least white, & most disadvantaged) precincts. Image
The % increase in '21 primary votes in Trump-won precincts this year, visible👆, surely reflects the statewide ballot referenda, which this year gave angry non-Democrat Pgh voters a reason to show up for a primary, which in Pgh they rarely have...
When we look look not at % increase over 4 ys before but at # increase (or decline), it becomes clear how a one-step-left shift of the turnout surge (which in Nov was centered in precincts where Trump got 20-40%, but last wk was strongest where Trump got 10-19%) helped Gainey Image
We can look at some basic demographics, drawing on 2010 census data (obvs there have been some shifts since then, esp in the two middle clusters here). Even in the cluster of whitest precincts, Gainey came close to winning (there was a huge spread within that cluster tho hold on) Image
Here's what total votes cast (not just % breakdown) looked like by precinct demographics. A reminder that the bulk of Pgh's population lives in very white precincts... Image
... & that those very white precincts are not all alike, even among registered Dems. Ed Gainey won 70+% of the vote in some, & barely 10% in others. In those latter, Tony Moreno got 50+% of Dem votes. Black Pgh neighborhoods in contrast were unified in their support for Gainey Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Lara Putnam

Lara Putnam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lara_putnam

Lara Putnam Profile picture
Sep 4
This🧵is going to be about PA voter registration trends but let me start here. The thing about our beautiful commonwealth is: it's made up of a bunch of different kinds of places whose politics are being pulled in opposite directions. Start w this map, using @AmcommPro categories Image
@AmCommPro Teal=Rural. (Fun fact: PA has the 3rd largest rural pop., in absolute terms, in the whole USA!)
Green="Middle Suburbs." Think Rust Belt: aging ex-industrial.
Orange=Urban suburbs: diverse, dense, educated.
Yellow=exurbs: less dense, less diverse, relatively wealthy.
Pink=Big City Image
@AmCommPro Each of these county-types accounts for a meaningful chunk of population: by 2023 stats, Urban Suburbs are home to 26% of PA's pop; Rural 20% [or ~23% if you add the 2 smaller rural categories to it], MiddleSuburb (=Ex-Industrial) 18%, Exurbs 17%, Big City (=Philadelphia) 12% Image
Read 16 tweets
Lara Putnam Profile picture
Nov 9, 2023
to appreciate the scale of Dems' statewide success this wk you have to cast your mind back to the distant past of... Nov 2021, at whch point it looked fully possible the PA electorate would keep speeding rightward twice as fast as it had lurched left after the election of DJTrump
Here's an even clearer metric I ended up with, one that captures turnout shifts as well as vote choice swings: change in net votes by county, averaged across statewide candidates each year to create something close to generic Dem v generic Rep results Image
In Delco, Montco, Philly & Allegheny Dems had hung on to some anti-Trump era gains, but pretty much everywhere else* across the state—most impactfully in Bucks, SCPA, & the big non-Allegheny counties of SWPA--Republicans were ascendant

*ok Dauphin Lackawanna & Monroe broke even Image
Read 12 tweets
Lara Putnam Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022
It was certainly plausible to think that John Fetterman would have a uniquely strong performance among white working-class or rural Pennsylvanians but... that didn't turn out to be the case at all?🤷‍♀️
The results are especially striking because surely holding everything equal, one would expect Doug Mastriano's appeal to be strongest in the rural+rust belt areas that swung hard in support of Donald Trump: & Oz to be more appealing in the upscale/moderate/cosmopolitan suburbs?
The darker green counties here are the ones where Shapiro outperformed Fetterman most strongly: which is the same as saying, where Oz outperformed Mastriano most strongly. SCPA/the capitol region, Bucks, but also Cambria, Westmoreland, Butler, Erie🤷‍♀️
Read 14 tweets
Lara Putnam Profile picture
Nov 11, 2022
Return of the 2018 Coalition, On Steroids (A Quick Thread on 2022 in Pennsylvania Before this Website Collapses).

tl;dr After Dobbs, the suburbs' anti-Dem realignment screeched to a halt & the anti-Trump realignment returned Image
Lots of things happened around the end of June: Dobbs, bipartisan bills, gas prices coming down, Jan 6 hearings gaining news. The exact proportions of which had an impact on who may remain up for debate. But what's clear is things changed & stayed changed
The geography of voter reg trend shifts was striking: Dems stopped hemorrhaging voters in PA's "Middle Suburb"/once-industrial counties: & went back to posting 2016-18 style gains in PA's upscale/cosmopolitan "Urban Suburb" counties
Read 20 tweets
Lara Putnam Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
This👇is not wrong! But note it's not just a demographic thing. The state & local organizations created/recreated by the anti-Trump grassroots ran through the tape for downballot Dems this year: even while hearing (& believing!) national voices foretelling doom
National voices #onhere have not yet processed what a stunning year this was for downballot Dems in PA. The inverse of 2020, when the presidential result distracted attention from PA Dems' grim downballot slide. PA lived the midterm backlash 2 ys early!💪
.@LetsTurnPABlue @TuesdaysToomey @acttogethernepa etc — plus the groups of different origin & profile who saw their potential & figured out how to partner: @seiuhcpa @NewPennsylvania @UniteforPA & many more
Read 13 tweets
Lara Putnam Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
Because you are all about to realize you need to know this: in 2021 Democratic PA Supreme Court candidate Maria McLaughlin's share of provisional ballots in both Lehigh & Northampton counties was exactly 20 ppt higher than her share of EDay+Mail votes in each.
...& likewise in Montgomery County. fwiw. 👀
... and likewise in Bucks 👀 . 2021 provisionals were 19 ppts more Dem than the combined E-Day and Mail ballots were.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(