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24 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Wrote this about COVID lab leak theory a year ago, reiterating it today.
Big difference between (1) a virology lab was studying a virus it found & some sort of mistake let it out, and (2) created by humans in a lab.
Unfortunately, many who focus on this topic blur the distinction
I remain extremely skeptical of the Chinese government's pronouncements on COVID. Not that everything they say is a lie, but it's not exactly the most trustworthy regime, and blocking or hindering international efforts to investigate the pandemic's origins rightly raise eyebrows.
I'm also skeptical of COVID-China conspiracy theories, especially from people who (1) wanted confrontation with China pre-COVID, (2) want to downplay how the US or other govts screwed up w/ COVID, (3) often conspiracy theorize.
Non-conspiratorial screw up➡️govt lie
That's normal.
I also think it's interesting that some see this as "SO IMPORTANT." Possibilities (not mutually exclusive):
-Want heightened confrontation with China
-Distract from Trump screw ups
-Media criticism uber alles
-Evil humans easier to comprehend than bad luck
What, exactly, are the origins of the COVID pandemic? I don't know. You don't either.
But there are many plausible explanations of China's cover ups besides a lab leak: Spotted new, naturally occurring illness early, underestimated it, reflexively keep secrets, didn't want panic.

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More from @NGrossman81

Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
21 May
"Conservatives" like Tucker Carlson and Josh Hawley have been crying "cancel culture" in bad faith, and will keep doing so.
But I've also seen many of the most vocal cancel culture critics—@robbysoave @thomaschattwill @CathyYoung63 @TheFIREorg plus more—criticizing UNC and/or AP.
Two high profile cancelations of people who expressed left-wing views, involving their current or about-to-be employers facing pressure from right-wing activists, strikes me as a good opportunity for some culture war detente.
For one, recognize that there are more than two sides.
I get that few know how academic hiring and promotion works (it's highly unusual for trustees to overrule a faculty + admin decision) and don't know the specifics of this position (specifically for a practitioner, not a PhD researcher), but... (cont.)
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
18 May
GOP Leader Announces Bad Faith on Jan. 6 Commission

In deal with Rep. Katko (R-NY), Dems agreed to equal numbers of Rs and Ds, and that Rs could block any subpoenas on their own.
Minority Leader McCarthy rejects anyway, tries vague process complaints, whatabout unrelated things.
The GOP caucus position, if it wasn't already obvious from their decision to oust Liz Cheney, is that the Capitol attack was good, or at least not bad, and that lying about it is more important than understanding it and preventing something like it or worse from happening again.
It would be much better if both parties thought a violent attack on American democracy was bad.
But given Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's official announcement of bad faith on a Jan. 6 commission, it's clear the GOP doesn't, so we have no choice but to move forward without them.
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
12 May
Concerning. Retired military have the right to express political opinions, but I don’t think there’s ever been such a partisan statement from retired officers, especially not outside of campaign season. Includes multiple disproven falsehoods about 2020. politico.com/news/2021/05/1…
The US survived the recent threat to Constitutional democracy because:
-enough state officials followed the law (many now purged or sidelined)
-courts rejected claims for lack of standing and lack of evidence
-security services didn’t split (despite some individuals joining 1/6)
A scenario with two people claiming to have won the White House in 2024 and military officers splitting to line up behind one or the other may not be likely, but the chances aren’t as close to zero as they should be, putting it in low probability - high impact event territory.
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
6 May
I appreciate Liz Cheney's rejection of whataboutism in her call for a Capitol attack commission.
Some will object to her characterization, but the point is these are separate events, and there's no reason anyone has to be concerned with only one, or has to address them together.
Cheney's right, we need a full Capitol attack investigation.
And she's right that "whatabout BLM and antifa?" is just an attempt to avoid one.
Unfortunately, the main obstacle to investigating the insurrection is her party doesn't have a problem with it.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Nationally & especially in states, the GOP is working to facilitate future election theft by removing things that thwarted Trump's effort.
Downplaying & trying to move on from Jan. 6 is part of that, as is sidelining truth-telling pro-democracy officials.
arcdigital.media/p/set-up-the-s…
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
3 May
Much of the IDW ended up in anti-vax, fad dieting, post-fact Trumpism, and “just asking questions” conspiracy theorizing.
There’s a lesson there.
I think the lesson is be wary of confusing iconoclasm or contrarianism with genius.
Sometimes thinkers are out of the mainstream not because they’re serving up brilliant insights the powerful don’t want you to hear, but because they’re bullshitting and/or recycling rejected ideas
I disagree. “Steelmanning” is in large part a trick.
Don’t strawman. Be fair to positions you’re critiquing. Those are important.
But in practice, many calls to steelman are effectively “no fair pointing out flaws in the argument I made; argue against something smarter instead.”
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
30 Apr
Jan. 6 was an attack on US democracy in a way 9/11 wasn't—incited by a POTUS' lies, aimed to overturn a US election—but at least 9/11 was an attack. The difference is who, what, and why.
The 1965 Immigration Act is a duly passed law that reduced discrimination by national origin.
Was the Jan. 6 insurrection "the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War," as Biden said? Debatable. How do we measure "worst"? Hoes does an attack "on our democracy" differ from an attack on America?
But is an immigration law an attack on our democracy? Absolutely not.
Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 removed preferences for northwest Europe, and gave priority to relatives of US citizens & permanent legal residents.
You can criticize it, sure, but thinking it an attack on US democracy is accurately called “white nationalist” or “racist.”
Read 5 tweets

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