Some inside info on FUD & fucking with markets by someone who's had blood on their hands (many times) before.
This is going to be decently detailed, so sit down & take your time.
I'll also add some proof as I dig through some old drives (without doxing any clients obvs).
1/n
1st a quick intro. Prior to my move to crypto I was a Sr. exec in the dominant company in one of the most competitive sectors out there. My P&L alone was larger than that of some small nation states. We were also highly regulated with over 125 licences in ~100 jurisdictions.
in 2016 I YOLO'ed into crypto by launching a full service company covering:
• Legal and regulatory - Meh
• Solidity development - Pumping out those shitcoins you all love
• Marketing & PR - Pumping your bags to the moon
• OTC - For the smart money to exit with minimal rekage
In all we serviced ~50 clients, mostly vanilla ERC20s but also some early ERC721 (NFTs as the kids call them). Back then we were using them to build stuff like SKRs for physical gold for private banks in HK, CH, MC etc.
We also did a lot of sentiment management for our OTC desk
So, say you're a fund wanting exposure to $BTC but think you missed the optimal entry. If only there was a dip you could enter in.
Cue us - What flavour of dip would Sir prefer this morning? Flash crash? Liquidity hunt? Ah, excellent choice! The End of the Bull Market it is!
So we're gonna crash the markets to allow you to scoop up cheap sats.
Step 1 the ground work - We pay several low tier media outlets to publish bearish news but not promote it on their channels. It just sits there for now.
Step 2 - Pay several contributors to Bloomberg/Forbes etc to publish hot takes on the story citing the article
It's easy as:
a) The starving writer meme is real
b) They're desperate for fresh content
c) Compensation is tied to the amount of traffic their stories generate
So now the content is on some low tier news sites & a few tier 1s. This is where you break out the rolodex and ping every pasty tech writer you ever bought drinks for at a conference & FOMO them in.
You're missing the story dude, it's on Reuters too FFS, you need to publish NOW
Story is gaining momentum & it hits the PR wires. Its on all sites from NewsBTC to Reuters so it's obviously legit.
Time to break out the CT Influencers. These guys all tweet out the story or variants of it with key words that sentiment algos pick such as "ban", "hack" etc.
It's now time to tie it all together by initiating the dump via our algo. This is the opposite of the standard OTC algo, in that it looks for the thinnest books on exchanges which comprise Futes price indexes (CB, Kraken, Gemini etc) and market dumps on them.
Retail sees the dump, rush to twitter to find that CT in engrossed in this new story. They panic as algos start to dump and liqs begin.
Retail sells, cascading SLs & Liqs finish the job & drive price to your orders. We dump on any rally to keep momentum high.
Bingo.
That's all for today. I hope this was educational, and when the next perfect storm hits crypto you'll remember that it's perfect because it's engineered with military precision by professionals.
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$ETH is going to be my main play this cycle. Been accumulating on dips, and slowly converting most of my $BTC.
This is my thesis 🧵
ETH's smaller MCap causes it to outperform in uptrends, and get rekt vs BTC in downtrends. My thesis is that we have already seen the bottom.
This means that the RR presented by a higher Beta asset is skewed significantly to the reward side.
Why do I think we've seen the bottom?
Well, anyone who was prone to getting liq'ed is already dead (there are no more Luna/3AC type implosions left in the system), and anyone who was going to paperhand the bottom has already capitulated.
After several months work, the TCP Swing Algo is almost™ complete.
It outperforms buy & hold by a significant margin running on spot (so no margin risk).
Here's performance on $BTC (This is v3.5. v4.0 code will reduce drawdown, ETA this week).
Whilst working on this I began discussions with @khingoei, founder and CEO of Captur, which is a platform that would allow the public to follow my algo's trades automagically, whilst leveraging my returns from it without me using actual leverage (I'd get paid a % of profits).
FWIW, I'm not affiliated with Captur in any way, nor was I paid for this. But they're gonna send me a free JPEG which can be staked to earn tokens on the Captur platform (to pay for fees).
So another win-win, where my NFT might appreciate. Failing that it'll pay trading fees.
We're looking good with a reclaim of the daily Tenkan. This is currently being retested on the lower timeframes.
Lagging span very close to entering price, indicating resistance.
On the 12H, we broke out of the cloud (after a textbook double bottom). This trumps the bearish TK cross as a signal.
Ideally we'll retest the cloud span and continue upwards to confirm range breakout.
On the 4H we can see a clear trend forming with HHs and HLs. We're currently retesting the cloud edge after a bullish TK cross. Since we've been ranging, I expect the cloud span to be violated and a bounce of the TL (v. bullish if we bounce here).
⚗️ Here's a thought experiment that might save your portfolio.
Don't skim it, invest some actual mental bandwidth here. Your grandkids will thank you for it.
Context: Let's assume that #Bitcoin is guaranteed to break the critical support at $29.5.
1/n
You're sitting staring at the screen, watching the hugest, reddest dildo since the Elon Tweet rip down through the chart as your portfolio value begins to tumble like a NYE countdown screen.
No lies, you're shitting yourself & debating whether you should sell, or hodl.
But which *should* you do?
You want to hodl because you don't want to sell the bottom and this might be a fakeout.
You want to sell because you don't want to baghold all the way down to $2XK and back and miss out on a 50% compounding opportunity.