MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus
By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”
Clever!
Emanuel is a regular go-to by reporters to counter IPCC - not directly but by countering those who invoke the IPCC consensus on extreme weather and disasters
Emanuel was called in to justify removing me at 538 in 2014 & more recently is used to bludgeon @ShellenbergerMD
Facts!
If you ever wonder why my research on hurricanes & disasters is never mentioned in the major media despite being widely cited & in IPCC, it’s very good science but very bad “facts”
No reporter wants to risk being “fact checked” by citing these bad facts🤷♂️
MIT's Emanuel has effectively monetize RCP8.5 by selling hurricane projections to gov't & industry (including fossil fuel)
I wouldn't deny anyone the chance to make a buck off their expertise, but these bucks should be relevant when appointing "independent fact checkers"😎
I was once a co-collaborator with Emanuel (& R. Mendelsohn) on a World Bank project on hurricane risk (L)
I resigned from the project when I learned how much $👀 Emanuel was being paid by the WB to produce "synthetic hurricane tracks" (R)
Emanuel has been after me ever since
Emanuel uses RCP8.5 in extreme projections at odds with IPCC & uses those pubs to recruit clients for his business selling "synthetic hurricane tracks" from these papers
He uses his "fact checking" platform against anyone who openly expresses a more mainstream view of hurricanes
Don't take it from me, Emanuel associates (below) almost all of his publications since ~2006 to the marriage of his research & his business windrisktech.com/publications.h…
So when Emanuel was writing in 2014 to undercut my peer-reviewed research on hurricanes & disasters, you may have thought he was making a set of scientific arguments. Maybe so, but he was also writing to preserve a business model, a very lucrative one
Emanuel has parlayed his standing into a prominantrole as "fact checking" gatekeeper at Climate Feedback, where he routinely attacks anyone who cites IPCC consensus on extreme events here are two false claims from Emanuel just this month . . .
First
In a "fact check" of a new book by Steven Koonin Emanuel cites a recent PNAS paper (L) but fails to reveal that that paper was followed by a major correction (R) that undercut the findings Emanuel is citing
Fact check fail
Second
Emanuel says "no one familiar with the global record of tropical cyclones would look at data prior to 1980"
There is plenty of data worth looking at
Kerry's a nice guy
He also is massively conflicted in his dual roles as a highly successful RCP8.5 salesman & powerful "independent fact checker" of RCP8.5-based claims
And Kerry is not unique in this
It persists because other than right here, you'd never know about it
/END
*unwelcomed
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We’ve reached the point where an IPCC author is openly rejecting the conclusions of the IPCC out of concern over how their political opposition is correctly interpreting the AR6
The integrity of the IPCC on extreme events is now under attack
The IPCC explains that a trend in a particular variable is DETECTED if it is outside internal variability and judged with >90% likelihood
For most (not all) metrics of extreme weather detection has not been achieved
That’s not me saying that, but IPCC AR6
The IPCC also assesses that for most (but not all) metrics of extreme weather the signal of a change in climate will not emerge from internal variability with high confidence (ie, >90%) by 2050 or 2100, even assuming the most extreme changes under RCP8.5
The US National Academy of Sciences has a new study committee on Extreme Event Attribution
Among its sponsors are the Bezos Earth Fund and Robert Litterman
Who are they? . . .
The Bezos Earth Fund sponsors World Weather Attribution, an advocacy group promoting the connection of weather events w/ fossil fuels in support of press coverage & lawsuits
Robert Litterman is on the board of Climate Central which founded WWA & collaborates on climate advocacy
The fact that a NAS committee is funded by political advocates is crazy enough
But that is not all
On the committee itself are individuals from two climate advocacy groups
One . . . the Union of Concerned Scientists which is working to use attribution to support lawsuits . . .
A time series of base (i.e., current-year) loses was first compiled from annual reports published in the Monthly Weather Review by Chris Landsea in 1989 for 1949-1989
I extended the data using same methods to 1996
Chris and I extended back to 1900 for Pielke and Landsea 1998
Then, Pielke et al. 2008 extend the dataset to 2005, again using the same methods
The heavy lifting was done by my then-student Joel Gratz
Joel graduated and went to an insurance company called ICAT . . .
Last month I revealed based on files part of the public record of the Michael Mann trial how Mann coordinated peer review of a paper of mine to ensure that it "would not see the light of day"
I only had a snippet of the relevant Mann email
Now I have the whole thing
And JFC...
First
New: the editor of GRL, Jay Familigetti, originally sent our submission to Mann!
That's right
A paper by Pielke & @ClimateAudit was sent to Mann to peer review
Mann wisely didn't accept but instead recommended hostile reviewers so that "it would not see the light of day"
@ClimateAudit Mann emails his partners Caspar Amann (NCAR) and Gavin Schmidt (NASA) to express his glee that this gives him an opportunity to cause harm
🧵
"The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s"
The US has 240,000 miles of high voltage transmission capacity
An expansion of 645 miles/year is just about 0.3%/yr
Take that 0.3%/year HV grid expansion to the next Tweet
The Princeton study (@JesseJenkins) used to promote the Inflation Reduction Act claimed the HV grid has been expanding at a rate of 1% per year based on a newsletter from JP Morgan
That 1% is >3x greater than actual recent grid expansion rates of 0.3%