MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus
By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”
Clever!
Emanuel is a regular go-to by reporters to counter IPCC - not directly but by countering those who invoke the IPCC consensus on extreme weather and disasters
Emanuel was called in to justify removing me at 538 in 2014 & more recently is used to bludgeon @ShellenbergerMD
Facts!
If you ever wonder why my research on hurricanes & disasters is never mentioned in the major media despite being widely cited & in IPCC, it’s very good science but very bad “facts”
No reporter wants to risk being “fact checked” by citing these bad facts🤷♂️
MIT's Emanuel has effectively monetize RCP8.5 by selling hurricane projections to gov't & industry (including fossil fuel)
I wouldn't deny anyone the chance to make a buck off their expertise, but these bucks should be relevant when appointing "independent fact checkers"😎
I was once a co-collaborator with Emanuel (& R. Mendelsohn) on a World Bank project on hurricane risk (L)
I resigned from the project when I learned how much $👀 Emanuel was being paid by the WB to produce "synthetic hurricane tracks" (R)
Emanuel has been after me ever since
Emanuel uses RCP8.5 in extreme projections at odds with IPCC & uses those pubs to recruit clients for his business selling "synthetic hurricane tracks" from these papers
He uses his "fact checking" platform against anyone who openly expresses a more mainstream view of hurricanes
Don't take it from me, Emanuel associates (below) almost all of his publications since ~2006 to the marriage of his research & his business windrisktech.com/publications.h…
So when Emanuel was writing in 2014 to undercut my peer-reviewed research on hurricanes & disasters, you may have thought he was making a set of scientific arguments. Maybe so, but he was also writing to preserve a business model, a very lucrative one
Emanuel has parlayed his standing into a prominantrole as "fact checking" gatekeeper at Climate Feedback, where he routinely attacks anyone who cites IPCC consensus on extreme events here are two false claims from Emanuel just this month . . .
First
In a "fact check" of a new book by Steven Koonin Emanuel cites a recent PNAS paper (L) but fails to reveal that that paper was followed by a major correction (R) that undercut the findings Emanuel is citing
Fact check fail
Second
Emanuel says "no one familiar with the global record of tropical cyclones would look at data prior to 1980"
There is plenty of data worth looking at
Kerry's a nice guy
He also is massively conflicted in his dual roles as a highly successful RCP8.5 salesman & powerful "independent fact checker" of RCP8.5-based claims
And Kerry is not unique in this
It persists because other than right here, you'd never know about it
/END
*unwelcomed
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The idea it was perfect under Democrats, as @afreedma & other advocacy journos suggest, is simply wrong
The most recent NCA was totally capture by interest groups and companies that would benefit from the report - UCS, TNC, EDF, CAP, Stripe etc
Below just a few of its authors
@afreedma The head of the NCA5 stated publicly that she would never cite our work in the assessment, even though our work is by far the most cited research on economic losses in the US associated with floods, hurricanes, tornadoes
🧵Let's take a quick look at the implications of the regulations that have followed from the 2009 EPA endangerment finding
According to @C2ES_org the 2021 GHG standards for light vehicles would reduce projected CO2 emissions by a cumulative 3.1 billion tons to 2050 c2es.org/content/regula…
Over the next 25 years the world would emit 925 gigatons of CO2 assuming constant 2025 emissions and ~690Gt assuming emissions are cut in half by 2050
That means that the projected impact of the regulations would reduce global emissions by 0.0003% (constant) & 0.0004% (halved)
The idea that CO2 can be regulated out of the economy is flawed
If the purpose of CO2 regulation is to create a shadow carbon tax, then it is a horribly inefficent way to do that
Once again, all this leads us back to Congress and the need for smart energy & climate policy
🧵
The percentage of a percentage trick is increasingly common & leads to massive confusion
Here a undetectable difference of 0.01 events per year per decade is presented as the difference between a 31% and 66.4% increase (in the *likelihood* of the event, not the event itself)
The resulting confusion is perfectly predictable
Here is a reporter (NPR) explaining completely incorrectly:
"The phenomenon has grown up to 66% since the mid-20th century"
False
Also, the numbers in the text and figure do not appear to match up
I asked Swain about this over at BlooSkeye
A Frankenstein dataset results from splicing together two time series found online
Below is an example for US hurricane damage 1900-2017
Data for 1980-2017 was replaced with a different time series in the green box
Upwards trend results (red ---)
Claim: Due to climate change!
The errors here are so obvious and consequential that it is baffling that the community does not quickly correct course
The IPCC AR6 cited a paper misusing the Frankenstein hurricane loss dataset to suggest that NOAA's gold standard hurricane "best track" dataset may be flawed
JFC - Using flawed economic loss data to suggest that direct measurements of hurricanes are in error!
We’ve reached the point where an IPCC author is openly rejecting the conclusions of the IPCC out of concern over how their political opposition is correctly interpreting the AR6
The integrity of the IPCC on extreme events is now under attack
The IPCC explains that a trend in a particular variable is DETECTED if it is outside internal variability and judged with >90% likelihood
For most (not all) metrics of extreme weather detection has not been achieved
That’s not me saying that, but IPCC AR6
The IPCC also assesses that for most (but not all) metrics of extreme weather the signal of a change in climate will not emerge from internal variability with high confidence (ie, >90%) by 2050 or 2100, even assuming the most extreme changes under RCP8.5