The way you get bipartisanship on a bipartisan commission is, often, a sort of gentlemen's agreement not to make either party look too bad. Mutually assured destruction.
That's ill-suited for 1/6, because only one party looks bad on that issue
Recall that it was moderate House Republicans who introduced a bill to create a 1/6 commission, just days after the Capitol was stormed.
The idea was, explicitly, that the country needed something like a 9/11 Commission to provide a full accounting of what happened.
What could such a commission do?
1.) It could uncover new facts. But it wouldn't have special powers to do so. Any ordinary cong. committee has the same powers. And a commission half-controlled by McConnell/McCarthy appointees likely wouldn't be aggressive in using those powers
2.) A commission could try to shape a shared national narrative of what happened. This is more in the realm of messaging and communication.
But again, if McConnell/McCarthy appointees aren't on board with this mission, it won't happen. Gridlock will ensue instead.
3.) It could politically damage the GOP. This is of course what Republicans are really afraid of here and why they're set on blocking it.
The issue divides the GOP. But it's also one where the GOP is out of step with public opinion. So any focus on it, they believe, hurts them
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One day later, McConnell says on Senate floor that "after careful consideration" he will oppose Dems' 1/6 commission proposal, calling it unnecessary because there are enough investigations already
McConnell had some disagreements with specifics of Dems' proposal, but of course he could try and negotiate on those if he wanted to.
The lines about a new investigation being unnecessary seem to justify blanket opposition to the idea.
McConnell's position is currently being expressed as his personal opinion, not the party's. So still theoretically possible he will not try hard to block the commission and leave it up to his senators. But he isn't helping.
Punditry shorthand is Biden won because of nonwhite voters and white college grads. Not the whole story. His coalition was:
-39% voters of color
-29% white college grads
-32% non-college whites
That is, he got more actual votes from non-college whites than college whites.
That's because, well, there are lots of white people in the USA, and lots of them vote. White share of the electorate has been shrinking but is still quite high (72% of 2020 voters).
McConnell (speaking now against the For the People Act) was the preeminent opponent of the McCain-Feingold bill. This was before he was GOP leader. His name was on the (mostly) failed Supreme Court challenge to it.
Of the 11 Republicans who voted for McCain-Feingold in 2002, just 1 is still in the Senate — Susan Collins. She has said she opposes the For the People Act in its current form cnn.com/2021/03/22/pol…
Yup, this is the risk. It's already happening. And that's why I've become so pessimistic about a Republican speaking out with a bold principled stance achieves. If the entirely predictable outcome is that they'll soon be replaced by a hardcore Trumpist...
NEW: I profiled Joe Manchin. I cover his 4-decade career, and his improbable rise to become Democrats’ key 50th senator.
I interviewed him about the filibuster, HR1, the minimum wage, whether he’d ever switch parties, and more. Some highlights: vox.com/22339531/manch…
On Manchin's op-ed saying there's no circumstance under which he'll eliminate the filibuster:
“The op-ed was as clear as it could be... If you want to argue about it for two years, then you’re going to waste a lot of your energy and your time.”
Manchin on HR1/S1: “How in the world could you, with the tension we have right now, allow a voting bill to restructure the voting of America on a partisan line?”
He insists it will just feed more distrust in the system and "anarchy" like Jan 6 — "I'm not going to be part of it"