I'm going to write a longer column on this but I think that the people reassuring each other that the urban crime spike is only homicide, while other violent crime fell last year, should not assume that those trends will keep diverging.
It's hard to assault/rob/rape someone who is home in their living room behind a locked door, rather than out on the street or in a bar or a parking lot where you can find them.
If the homicide spike was an anomalous reaction to the emotional and economic pressures of the pandemic, then homicide will fall back towards other crimes. But if homicide was driven by depolicing, and that continues into reopening, then likely other crime will rise instead.
I don't know which is the case, but "this is just some isolated gang wars" (that happened to occur in 30 cities simultaneously) is not the most likely explanation.
Also, nota bene, a huge amount of crime is driven by drinking, so as bars reopen ...
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