TheLastRefuge Profile picture
May 25, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The data behind this trend is several months lag. Inventories are increasing more rapidly than financial community would like to admit.... Watch background data.

Excluding local & looking overall Big Picture... If u are a seller, do now. If you're a buyer, wait and watch.
2. Declining wages (real income) and rapid inflation in blue/white collar is a major factor. Financial security (optimism) way down. Mid-level home prices overinflated in numerous regions. As buyers contract, inflation bites, home prices will drop.
3. Outlook supported inside the data: "Sales were concentrated in the $200,000-$399,000 price range. Sales below the $200,000 price bracket, the sought-after segment of the market, accounted for a mere 2% of transactions last month."
4. Housing issues (from an economic standpoint) are a bottom up problem (reverse snowball effect).

Hits low tier first (entry level), then mid-tier (upgrading), then mid-high tier (upgrades), then approaches higher tiers.
5. Compare current 2021 position to summer 2005.

The Housing bubble burst in December '05 and rapidly spread outward.... by mid '06, into '07 it was in full collapse.

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More from @TheLastRefuge2

Apr 18
1. I'm getting hit with a lot of newly awakened people wondering about AG Pam Bondi; wondering if the stuff from her old days surfacing is accurate.

I will try to encapsulate and provide receipts. The issues with Pam Bondi are much more serious than most understand.

Pam Bondi was the Florida Attorney General during the incident when George Zimmerman shot Trayvon Martin.

“When I worked with Governor Scott to appoint State Attorney Angela Corey to the case involving Trayvon Martin, I did so with the full confidence that a swift and thorough investigation would be conducted."Image
2. On the evening of February 26, 2012, in Sanford Florida, George Zimmerman fired one shot into the heart of 17-year-old Trayvon Martin, fatally killing him.

The Sanford Police lead investigator into the shooting was Chris Serino; the Police Chief was Bill Lee, and the local prosecutor was Norm Wolfinger.

Detective Chris Serino questioned and investigated George Zimmerman, who used a traditional “self-defense” justification for the shooting.  Eventually the case went to trial and the same “self-defense” justification was used in court.  Despite what you might have heard in the media, it was never a “stand your ground” defense.  It simply was not needed.

In addition to questioning Zimmerman, Serino documented two eye-witnesses to the shooting.  One woman in an apartment who saw the initial encounter between Trayvon Martin and George Zimmerman, and another eye-witness, a man in an adjacent apartment who saw and partially recorded, the entire confrontation as it unfolded on the pathway approximately 20 feet from him.

The second witness called 911 and described in real time what he was seeing.  Trayvon was straddling George in an “MMA style” position and slamming Zimmerman’s head into the sidewalk.  During the 911 recording you can hear Zimmerman calling out, “help me; somebody help me.” [NOTE: Both of those witnesses as well as the recording were later buried but came out at trial.]

After a thorough investigation, all of the statements by George Zimmerman were corroborated by the eye-witnesses, the forensic evidence, the audio recording, and all the physical evidence found at the scene.  Detective Chris Serino gave his investigative report to Police Chief Lee along with the recommendation that Zimmerman’s claim of self-defense was valid and justified.  Serino and Lee then consulted with prosecutor Norm Wolfinger who reviewed the evidence and agreed.Image
3. Trayvon's father, Tracy Martin, was in a new relationship with his girlfriend Brandy Greene. Ms. Greene was a corrections officer.

Ms. Brandy Greene was eventually put into contact with a Florida “civil rights lawyer” named Benjamin Crump.  After some back-and-forth positioning and discussion, Crump decided to champion a wrongful death case for the Martin family against George Zimmerman, the City of Sanford and the Sanford Police Department.

Benjamin Crump hired a PR firm run by Ryan Julison to create media pressure.  Using his civil rights contacts, Crump requested support from groups like Al Sharpton, Dream Defenders, and allies in the DOJ.  That approach led to AG Eric Holder and eventually President Barack Obama.

Additionally, having worked previously (2007) with Florida prosecutor Pam Bondi in the Martin Lee Anderson case, Benjamin Crump called the now Florida Attorney General Bondi for support. 

The detective (Serino) sided with George Zimmerman.  The Police Chief, Bill Lee, agreed with Serino and the evidence.  The local Sanford prosecutor (Norm Wolfinger) refused to bring a case against Zimmerman based on the evidence.

…. Enter Florida AG Pam Bondi, who told Florida Governor Rick Scott a special prosecutor was needed for her friend Ben Crump.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 15
1. OK you want to go there? I'm game.

Bongino said "Mistakes were made." You concur. So, let's look at these FBI "mistakes."

Start with this one. This was an FBI mistake? Image
2. 40 FBI agents investigated Trump for two years, knowing there was nothing to investigate.

"mistakes were made?" Image
Image
3. “If these allegations are true and accurate, the Justice Department and FBI are – and have been – institutionally corrupted to their very core to the point in which the United States Congress and the American people will have no confidence in the equal application of the law. Attorney General Garland and Director Wray, simply put, based on the allegations that I’ve received from numerous whistleblowers, you have systemic and existential problems within your agencies.”

drive.google.com/file/d/1EuxPN1…
Read 24 tweets
Mar 27
1) **ahem** Also, every argument for retention of 702 is a false premise. Americans either have a 4th Amendment, or we do not. It really is that simple.

Want to conduct electronic surveillance on an American; want to read their "private papers," GET A WARRANT!

This is my hill!
2) Why is this my hill?

Because every downstream action for the surveillance state is predicated on the legal arguments behind FISA 702.

Real ID, facial recognition surveillance, metadata collection, AI enhanced trace and tracking, etc, all of it is contingent upon the arguments within the FISA 702 issue as it relates to the 4th amendment.

If FISA 702 is not a violation of the 4th amendment protection against unlawful search and seizure, then all domestic downstream DHS surveillance, collection and exploitation is similarly not a violation.

If FISA 702 is determined to be a violation of privacy, a violation of the 4th amendment to be secure in your papers and effects (which it is), then all approaches to conduct domestic electronic surveillance through the network of DHS data assembly is also a violation of privacy.

This is a privacy argument that has not reached SCOTUS. It is still being fought with success at state level.

If you are being monitored without a warrant, you have no privacy. The core argument behind 702 authorizes warrantless monitoring.Image
3) This is why the DC system supports FISA 702 with such severity. It is essentially the path through which the U.S. Govt is authorizing itself to conduct surveillance.

This is why the SSCI will not confirm a nominee without them supporting 702. Congress demands every member of the national security apparatus approve domestic surveillance, on behalf of the Intelligence Community who create and operate the systems.

Remove 702 authority and Palantir stock drops overnight. Why? Because the predicate of their domestic product intents, the surveillance software, are dependent on the legal arguments behind it.

Destroy 702, you destroy the 'one ring.'Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 27
Billions of dollars of German auto manufacturing (assembly) investment in Mexico were just vaporized by President Trump. Image
This is a very big kick in the teeth to Germany.  Previously in a long-term strategy to avoid U.S. tariffs, German automakers invested billions in auto assembly plants in Mexico.  Ex. the BMW parts were shipped from Germany and the cars assembled in Mexico.  Now that investment is worthless as the vehicle will be taxed at a rate of 25% regardless of whether it is assembled in Germany or Mexico.
It cannot be overstated how big a hit this will be to the German economy specifically.  That’s why EU President Ursula von der Leyen is couching her words very carefully.

Germany drives the economic engine of the EU, and the Germans care about their money far more than they care about the security of Ukraine.

“As I have said before, tariffs are taxes – bad for businesses, worse for consumers equally in the US and the European Union,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. “We will now assess this announcement, together with other measures the US is envisaging in the next days.”

The EU outlook, specifically financial support, toward the EU/NATO Ukraine strategy will change in 3.... 2....1....Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 23
1) Emissary Steve Witkoff’s positive perspectives on Qatar were/are actually shocking to me. Remember, CTH is banned from view in Qatar, and even the U.S. military there cannot access CTH in that duty station.

Qatar is NOT a good actor in the Mideast conflict. On this material supposition and presentation, I comprehensively disagree with Witkoff and would love to debate this matter with him.

I can only conclude there is some financial relationship between Witkoff and the Qataris that lies behind his views.

Qatar provided safe haven for the 5 key Muslim Brotherhood agitators who were exiled from Egypt, and Qatar was factually the GCC nation that had to be confronted for their support of Islamic extremism by Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Why Witkoff puts such a positive spin on Qatar, and why Tucker Carlson seemingly affirms and goes along with it is quite odd, given the nature of the discussion.

Qatar funds Al Jazeera, the major propaganda wing of the Islamic extremist coalition supported by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Qatar funds the Brookings Institute, which also then funds the operational efforts of all the Lawfare and CIA agencies.

Qatar is factually in a very deep relationship with the CIA. VERY DEEP.

Qatar was also the mechanism used by Clinton/Panetta to send Surface to Air missiles into Libya, which ultimately resulted in the death of Ambassador Chris Stephens during a covert operation to retrieve them.

All of these known facts, put great pause on the review of Steve Witkoff, who -amid other issues- appears to be doing an exceptional job on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. We should watch this carefully with eyes wide open.

cc: @realDonaldTrump @LeeSmithDC @Scavino47 @DevinNunes

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/03/2…Image
2) Qatar and Witkoff:

“Witkoff bought the hotel in 2013 for $654 million with a plan to convert the bulk of the building’s 600 or so rooms into high-end condos. But by 2016 he and his partners — Harry Macklowe, Howard Lorber’s New Valley and Highgate Holdings — had decided the Billionaires’ Row market had become oversaturated.

They put the conversion on hold.

A few months later, Chinese developer Greenland Group bought a 41 percent stake in the project from Kuwait Strategic Investors. The project seemed to be back on track.

But shortly after the deal closed, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit looking to seize the hotel as part of its investigation into the Malaysian businessman Jho Low, who was accused of stealing $4 billion from a development fund in his home country.

"Witkoff put the property up for sale in 2017.” “Qataris shell out $623M for storied Park Lane Hotel –
Witkoff-led group bought property decade ago eyeing condo conversion” [Aug 28, 2023]

“The building’s status was in limbo for almost six years due to the owners’ unsuccessful $1bn auction attempt in 2017.”

“Financier Jho Low, also known as Low Taek Jho, was a member of the group that owned the hotel.

In 2022, Low was convicted in the US of corruption charges related to embezzling billions of dollars from the Malaysian investment fund.

The US Justice Department had at first wanted to confiscate the hotel as part of its probe against Low.

But the department later reached a deal with the owners, led by developer Steven Witkoff, for the divestment of the property instead. It holds Low’s portion of the proceeds in escrow.

The building’s status was in limbo for almost six years due to the owners’ unsuccessful $1bn auction attempt in 2017.

According to a Bloomberg report, real estate and management company Witkoff Group and the Qatar Investment Authority have not responded to requests for comment regarding the sale, which was first reported by PinusCo.”

SOURCING/RECIEPTS

archive.is/20230828174336…

qatarliving.com/forum/news/qat…

hotelmanagement-network.com/news/qatar-inv…
3) President Trump: “The nation of Qatar has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level”.

President Trump: “I decided, along with secretary of state Rex Tillerson, our great generals and military people, the time had come to call on Qatar to end its funding, they have to end that funding and its extremist ideology.”

President Trump said he helped those countries make the decision to break off relations with Qatar during his trip to Saudi Arabia [last month]. “Nations came together and spoke to me about confronting Qatar over its behaviors,” he said.

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2017/05/2…

edition.cnn.com/2017/06/09/pol…Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22
1) While repeating his claim that Canada can easily replace their trade relationship with the USA by seeking larger trade relationship with other countries, specifically the EU, current interim Prime Minister Mark Carney repeats that no contact will be attempted or accepted by the Canadian government until President Donald Trump shows him respect.

This doesn't portend favorably for U.S-Canada relations; which, to be fair, they would argue have been destroyed by President Donald Trump questioning their sovereignty. 

However, here's the kicker, what Canadians don't seem to realize is that questioning their sovereignty is simply a strategy by President Trump to eliminate the one-sided trade relationship with Canada.

It is funny to me that Canada just can't figure this out.
2) As long as Canada refuses to engage with President Trump due to a perceived lack of respect, President Donald Trump will continue to enhance his disrespect of Canada, because the absence of engagement assists his 'total trade reset' objective. 

President Trump wants to show, perhaps prove to the Canadian people, how dependent they are on their USA relationship; vis-a-vis they are already not a sovereign, economically independent nation.
3) Somewhere around 80% of Canadians have no concept of how their economy is functioning.

Most Canadians seem to think they have some form of capitalistic system in operation and tweeking the knobs will fix things; it won’t.

So, from an American political perspective, specifically from the perspective of President Trump - as noted in all of his repeated remarks about the upcoming Canadian election, having Mark Carney carry out his policies and watching the system therein collapse, might break the borg-mindset. 

Sure, it will be massively painful for Canadians when their currency heads toward 0.25¢ to the US dollar.  However, that currency collapse will more than eliminate any Trump tariff impact.

Eat your broccoli. FAFO. You pick the slogan.
Read 6 tweets

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