Thread by @Tim_Bousquet

54 new cases of COVID-19 announced in Nova Scotia today (Tuesday, May 25) /thread

Of those, 35 are in Nova Scotia Health's Central Zone, 15 are in the Eastern Zone, 3 are in the Northern Zone, and 1 is in the Western Zone.

Nova Scotia Health labs completed just 3,973 tests yesterday.

There are now 846 known active cases in the province. 72 people are in hospital with the disease, 20 of whom are in ICU.

Here is the graph of daily new cases and the 7-day rolling average (today at 68) since March 28, the last day with zero new cases:

Here is the active caseload since March 28:

As of end of day yesterday, 510,054 doses of vaccine have been administered (I'll have much more on vaccination when the briefing starts)

48.3% of the entire population has received at least one dose:

Here is the graph of daily new cases since the pandemic started in March 2020:

And here is the active caseload since the start of the pandemic, annotated with the primary association of the 3 largest outbreaks:

The briefing is scheduled to start at 3, so I'll continue this thread. As soon as Rankin starts speaking, I'll have a flurry of tweets about vaccinations.

I've been informed there are some technical issues in the media room, so the briefing may be "a few minutes late in starting." [insert your wry comment here]

We're about to start.

As of yesterday, Nova Scotia has received 598,800 doses of vaccine. 510,054 doses have been administered and there are 82,496 vaccination appointments scheduled this week

Here are the percentages vaccinated so far by age cohort. Ignore that 75% dotted line — that is an error. It should be an 85% line. I can explain that later if you want, just take my word for it for now.

Officials stress that uptake is very high in all age groups. In fact, those over 65 are still booking appointments; it turns out that people are, for whatever reason, taking a bit of time to book appointments, but they are.

With more Pfizer vaccine to arrive than previously expected, the schedule for the second dose of mRNA vaccine is being moved up. (People who had first dose of Moderna can get a second dose that is Pfizer.) (I’ll get to AstraZeneca in a moment)

So, most people will be able to move their 2nd dose appointment up 2 to 4 weeks (if they want to; no one will be required to). And this is new, the 2nd dose doesn’t have to be at the same location as the 1st.

So the big new — fantastic news, actually: it’s expected that “population immunity” (75% of entire population getting 2 doses) will be achieved in early September rather than late October. Almost 7 weeks early.

Here are 2 busy graphs that explain the situation. This first graph shows the plan before today. The blue bars show the existing schedule for the first 200,000 2nd doses (105 days out from first dose), and the green bar out from there

The second graph shows the new plan — those 200K appointments (the blue bars) will be moved up considerably, and this has a cascading effect that moves up the latter appointments as well.

What this means: Beginning in early June groups of age cohorts will be notified by email or news release and invited to move their appointment up. It depends on how many people take advantage of this, and on actual vaccine deliveries, for how many and how quickly.

But the expectation is that, for example, someone who received their 1st dose on March 22 and has a 2nd dose scheduled for July 5 could move that 2nd appointment to June 20 (2 weeks sooner).

And, someone who received their 1st dose on April 26 and has a 2nd dose scheduled for August 9 could move that 2nd appointment to July 12 (4 weeks sooner).

Now, back to the briefing…

Rankin: now that hospitalization numbers are coming down, Dr. Strang and I are talking about a reopening plan.

Strang: "keep following restrictions even when no one is looking"

Strang: we are several weeks ahead of the vaccination schedule. Everyone over 12 will be able to book an appointment by the end of the week.

Strang: young people are booking appointments at a remarkable rate.

Strang explains the sped-up vaccine schedule I laid out up thread.

Strang: when the opportunity comes, book an appointment, or move it up when you can.

Strang: NACI says if you got a Moderna for your first dose, you can get a Pfizer for your second.

Strang: We should know by early June if people who got one dose of AstraZeneca can get an mRNA second dose (Pfizer).

The thought it that people will be fully informed with the scientific study knowledge, and they can decide for themselves.

For those asking, yes, there's a greater than expected delivery of Pfizer, while Moderna delivery is expected to be spotty, hence mixing the two for first and second doses

Strang: we're still working on the plan, but we'll have details about the lifting of restrictions in the summer on Friday.

You people keep asking me questions that are answered downthread. I can only type so fast.

Strang: if Moderna comes more than we think now, it's possible we could reach herd immunity in August.

In response to my question, Strang repeats that he does not yet have details of the vaccination status of those who are hospitalized or have died. He says nothing is 100%, so expect some, but vaccines help protect everyone.

I also asked Strang about the province's strategy for long-haulers, and he didn't really have an answer beyond the science is evolving.

Rankin repeats several times that NS's numbers are coming down faster than has happened in any other province.

The briefing is over. I'll have more demographic and geographic info in a full article in a bit.

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