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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
May 25, 2021 • 19 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Llevo meses alertando de las irregularidades en el rescate a Plus Ultra. He presentado una denuncia ante la Comisión Europea y el Gobierno ha tenido que dar explicaciones.

Tras estudiarlas a fondo, me reafirmo: Es una ayuda de Estado ILEGAL. Abro HILO con la investigación🔎 1/19
Contexto: tras mi denuncia ante la Comisión Europea por ayuda de Estado ilegal a Plus Ultra, el Gobierno ha enviado sus explicaciones a la Comisión. Presentamos nuestra respuesta el 20 de mayo y hoy la vamos a compartir con vosotros. 2/19
Hay 4 argumentos clave sobre Plus Ultra que explico en mi escrito:
👉 No es una empresa estratégica
👉 Estaba en crisis antes del Covid
👉 No es viable: no podrá devolver el dinero en 7 años
👉 La ayuda es manifiestamente desproporcionada
3/19
NO ES ESTRATÉGICA
⭕ Tiene 4 aviones y solo vuela a 3 países
⭕ Cuota de mercado del 0.1% del mercado aéreo español (0.2% si solo se consideran empresas 🇪🇸)
⭕ En las conexiones Madrid-Latinoamérica (su mercado geográfico) tiene la cuota de mercado más pequeña: 1.5%
4/19
¿Y, por qué es un problema que no sea estratégica?
👉 Porque va en contra de la Sentencia del Tribunal General de la UE
👉 Porque es arbitraria: si Plus Ultra no es estratégica, pero ha recibido una ayuda millonaria, ¿Por qué no la recibe un bar o un hotel?
5/19
PLUS ULTRA ESTABA EN CRISIS ANTES DE LA PANDEMIA
❌La UE autorizó al Gobierno a dar ayudas estatales siempre y cuando la empresa NO estuviese en crisis
🧑‍⚖️ ¿Cómo se sabe si está en crisis? Si las pérdidas acumuladas han hecho desaparecer más de la mitad del capital suscrito 6/19
⭕ Desde su creación en 2015, Plus Ultra no había tenido beneficios ningún año (en 2019, antes de la pandemia, tuvo 2.7M de pérdidas)
⭕ Acumulaba 13M de pérdidas, es decir más de la mitad de su capital suscrito (19.2M) 7/19
Para cumplir con el requisito y recibir la ayuda, Plus Ultra utilizó un préstamo participativo SIMULADO de €6.3m que le dio la empresa panameña Panacorp. Os explico el truco en el video (aviso: huele fatal) 8/19
UNA AYUDA MANIFIESTAMENTE DESPROPORCIONADA
Según la ley, la ayuda no puede ser mayor a las pérdidas de capital sufridas entre 31/12/2019 y el momento de la solicitud, el 02/09/2020. En el caso de Plus Ultra, consta que, a finales de octubre de 2020, había perdido, 16.3M
9/19
El Gobierno le ha dado una ayuda ¡3 veces mayor que la cantidad legalmente permitida! a una empresa controlada por personas de dudosa reputación 10/19
RIESGO DE QUE EL DINERO NO SE DEVUELVA

Plus Ultra dice que recuperará su nivel de actividad en 2022, pero organismos internacionales de aviación civil estiman que en el mejor de los casos será en 2024
👉 los vuelos internacionales fuera de la UE serán los que más tarden 11/19
Incluso con unas estimaciones tan optimistas, Plus Ultra espera perder 34M entre 2020 y 2022.

¿Cómo va a poder cubrir el agujero de pérdidas acumuladas y devolver €53m en 2026 (como se ha comprometido con la SEPI), sabiendo que jamás ha generado beneficios? 12/19
LA TRAMA VENEZOLANA

Si Plus Ultra no es estratégica para España y no cumplía las condiciones para recibir la ayuda… ¿para quién es estratégica? 13/19
Los accionistas de Plus Ultra están relacionados con investigaciones por corrupción y blanqueo de dinero. 14/19
La ex fiscal general de Venezuela ha acusado al Presidente y accionista de Plus Ultra, Rodolfo Reyes, de operar compañías corruptas en beneficio de Nicolás Maduro 👇15/19
En conclusión, las explicaciones del Gobierno ante Bruselas no solo no eliminan las sospechas, sino que confirman todos los extremos de mi denuncia 👇
16/19
Voy a ser muy claro: El Presidente del Gobierno y los ministros implicados deben dar explicar a todos los españoles y asegurar que la ayuda pagada del bolsillo de los contribuyentes no acaba en una cuenta en Panamá. 17/19
Esta mañana he dado una rueda de prensa donde explico con detalle todo el caso. Podéis verla aquí 👇18/19
Y aquí podéis ver el escrito de alegaciones que he enviado a la Comisión 👇 19/19
luisgaricano.eu/wp-content/upl…

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19
New data shows that the EU Commission has blown the chance the NextGen gave it to get the EU on a growth path. Two key elements.
1. Pensions in Spain.
2. Reforms in italy.

The new data is from the ageing report of the EU Commission on the budgetary impact of the pension "reforms"- more below

( h/t @rdomenechv @fernandosols with official data from the Spanish government.)

Small THREAD (1/7)economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2…
The EU NextGen plans gave an unprecedented and powerful stick to the EU Commission to demand reforms and investments in exchange of money. Never has the Commission had the chance to get states to get some reforms going.

In Spain, the EU Commission has been complicit (in spite of numerous warnings) in setting Spain on an unsustainable Fiscal path
(2/7)
Under cover (!!!) of the "reforms" required by the European NextGen plan, the Spanish government abrogated the 2012 reforms of pensions (the single reform done by the Rajoy government), based on an automatic adjustment mechanism, without putting anything else meaningful in place.

The cost is 3.3 points of GDP higher than before the reform.

(3)Image
Read 7 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 15
Some reactions to the (wonderful) Levitt interview.
1) On the @uchicago PhD program and the atmosphere in the department in the 90s (toxic?).
2) On Price Theory and its future at @uchicago and beyond.
3) On the "technification" of economics and the blurring of the "theory-empirics" boundaries.
(link to interview: )
(Thread)
1/npodcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ste…
1) On the Econ PhD Program. I went in 1992, graduated in 1998. I did not feel the ambiance was toxic. It was tough work, almost brutal, not toxic. I was given a chance I would not have gotten elsewhere. There was nothing personal about the standards. We were getting trained by the best and that was intellectually invaluable -we got the chance of a lifetime. Here are some profs of my first two years (note 5 nobels):
Macro: Sargent, Lucas, Cochrane, Woodford, Stokey, Townsend.
Micro: Becker, Rosen, Murphy, Scheinkman
Metrics: Hansen, Heckman, Zellner.
It was extremely hard, by far the hardest thing I have ever done. But it should be hard. They were trying to put a bunch of kids at the frontier of knowledge.
It was not for everyone, but we knew what we were getting into. My admired supervisor, Sherwin Rosen, then department chair, gave us a "superstar" (he wrote THE paper after all) talk on the first day. He told us half of us would fail in the first year Core (and exit with an MA, is that so bad?), half of the rest would not make the prelims. Of the 50 we were there, maybe 10 would finish the PhD, most of those would never get any citation.
And yet we persisted. We wanted to learn, and were grateful for the hance.
2/n
2) On Price Theory. What is the Chicago Price Theory style? Best thing I can recommend is to experience it yourself by listening to the playlist of Kevin Murphy's classes. . He is an amazing teacher, and makes economics come alive.
Is it true as Levitt says, quoting Mulligan to Friedman, that this style of Micro lost in the market place of ideas?
3/nyoutube.com/@chicagopricet…
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 1, 2023
Prometí hacer un pequeño hilo con datos sobre el estancamiento de la economía española, al hilo de mi entrevista en @elmundoes.
Aquí van 4 gráficos. Al final del hilo, el texto de la entrevista completo.
La economía crece por demografía o por productividad.
Demografía: somos 47 millones.

La ONU estima que a finales de siglo seremos 30.8 millones, con una orquilla entre 21m y 43m: en el mejor caso (con mucha inmigración) estancamiento de la población.

data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=Sp…
Image
Productividad: estancada desde 2006. Ha crecido 0.5% en total en 16 años. Image
Read 6 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 22, 2023
We have seen much about Bob Lucas' macro contributions these days, but he also had a highly influential contribution to the theory of the firm: the "assigment theory of the firm", which explains, for instance, why Musk earns so much (and controls so many resources).
THREAD Image
Before Lucas 1978, we had Marshall-Viner: individual firms have U-shaped long-run average cost functions. In equilibrium, each firm produces at the minimum point of this curve, with firm entry or exit adapting to get aggregate production. Resonable for plants, but not for firms! ImageImage
The size distribution which emerges is a solution to the problem: allocate production over firms to minimize total cost.
It goes without saying that this is counterfactual for firm size.
Here is the actual firm size distribution (Axtell, Science 2001). Image
Read 25 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 4, 2023
🚨Stunning document, leaked today supposedly from GOOGLE, on whether there is a "moat" (Barrier to entry) in the LLM space.
The author argues neither Google nor OpenAI have a moat, and open source wins. Thread with critical comment at end:
semianalysis.com/p/google-we-ha…
The question of whether one-three players dominate the industry (like Operating Systems or Search) or it is perfectly competitive is hugely important:
1) For consumer welfare: more competition is better.
2) For control of direction/ethics: more competition makes it harder.
To answer the question requires answering: what are the barriers to entry protecting the incumbents? What can their competitive advantages be?

If there are huge barriers, then the winner (Google in search) takes it all in AI, like Google did in search or MSFT in Office.
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19, 2023
Where are we on Climate Change?

Mike Greenstone @UChi_Economics gave a great talk @ChicagoBooth. I will post a few of his charts.

1. Including battery back-up, cost of electricity from renewables is 3x/4x more expensive than from fossil fuels. Image
2. Same for cars. Oil prices need to be quite high for EVs to be less costly: you need oil price at €129 for battery powered car to be more economical. Image
3. Fossile fuels will not just run out on their own.
On the contrary we are finding oil faster than we can use it:

We had 30 years worth of oil in 1980, 40 years today. Huge reserves of coal and gas. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets

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