Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25, 2021 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Llevo meses alertando de las irregularidades en el rescate a Plus Ultra. He presentado una denuncia ante la Comisión Europea y el Gobierno ha tenido que dar explicaciones.

Tras estudiarlas a fondo, me reafirmo: Es una ayuda de Estado ILEGAL. Abro HILO con la investigación🔎 1/19
Contexto: tras mi denuncia ante la Comisión Europea por ayuda de Estado ilegal a Plus Ultra, el Gobierno ha enviado sus explicaciones a la Comisión. Presentamos nuestra respuesta el 20 de mayo y hoy la vamos a compartir con vosotros. 2/19
Hay 4 argumentos clave sobre Plus Ultra que explico en mi escrito:
👉 No es una empresa estratégica
👉 Estaba en crisis antes del Covid
👉 No es viable: no podrá devolver el dinero en 7 años
👉 La ayuda es manifiestamente desproporcionada
3/19
NO ES ESTRATÉGICA
⭕ Tiene 4 aviones y solo vuela a 3 países
⭕ Cuota de mercado del 0.1% del mercado aéreo español (0.2% si solo se consideran empresas 🇪🇸)
⭕ En las conexiones Madrid-Latinoamérica (su mercado geográfico) tiene la cuota de mercado más pequeña: 1.5%
4/19
¿Y, por qué es un problema que no sea estratégica?
👉 Porque va en contra de la Sentencia del Tribunal General de la UE
👉 Porque es arbitraria: si Plus Ultra no es estratégica, pero ha recibido una ayuda millonaria, ¿Por qué no la recibe un bar o un hotel?
5/19
PLUS ULTRA ESTABA EN CRISIS ANTES DE LA PANDEMIA
❌La UE autorizó al Gobierno a dar ayudas estatales siempre y cuando la empresa NO estuviese en crisis
🧑‍⚖️ ¿Cómo se sabe si está en crisis? Si las pérdidas acumuladas han hecho desaparecer más de la mitad del capital suscrito 6/19
⭕ Desde su creación en 2015, Plus Ultra no había tenido beneficios ningún año (en 2019, antes de la pandemia, tuvo 2.7M de pérdidas)
⭕ Acumulaba 13M de pérdidas, es decir más de la mitad de su capital suscrito (19.2M) 7/19
Para cumplir con el requisito y recibir la ayuda, Plus Ultra utilizó un préstamo participativo SIMULADO de €6.3m que le dio la empresa panameña Panacorp. Os explico el truco en el video (aviso: huele fatal) 8/19
UNA AYUDA MANIFIESTAMENTE DESPROPORCIONADA
Según la ley, la ayuda no puede ser mayor a las pérdidas de capital sufridas entre 31/12/2019 y el momento de la solicitud, el 02/09/2020. En el caso de Plus Ultra, consta que, a finales de octubre de 2020, había perdido, 16.3M
9/19
El Gobierno le ha dado una ayuda ¡3 veces mayor que la cantidad legalmente permitida! a una empresa controlada por personas de dudosa reputación 10/19
RIESGO DE QUE EL DINERO NO SE DEVUELVA

Plus Ultra dice que recuperará su nivel de actividad en 2022, pero organismos internacionales de aviación civil estiman que en el mejor de los casos será en 2024
👉 los vuelos internacionales fuera de la UE serán los que más tarden 11/19
Incluso con unas estimaciones tan optimistas, Plus Ultra espera perder 34M entre 2020 y 2022.

¿Cómo va a poder cubrir el agujero de pérdidas acumuladas y devolver €53m en 2026 (como se ha comprometido con la SEPI), sabiendo que jamás ha generado beneficios? 12/19
LA TRAMA VENEZOLANA

Si Plus Ultra no es estratégica para España y no cumplía las condiciones para recibir la ayuda… ¿para quién es estratégica? 13/19
Los accionistas de Plus Ultra están relacionados con investigaciones por corrupción y blanqueo de dinero. 14/19
La ex fiscal general de Venezuela ha acusado al Presidente y accionista de Plus Ultra, Rodolfo Reyes, de operar compañías corruptas en beneficio de Nicolás Maduro 👇15/19
En conclusión, las explicaciones del Gobierno ante Bruselas no solo no eliminan las sospechas, sino que confirman todos los extremos de mi denuncia 👇
16/19
Voy a ser muy claro: El Presidente del Gobierno y los ministros implicados deben dar explicar a todos los españoles y asegurar que la ayuda pagada del bolsillo de los contribuyentes no acaba en una cuenta en Panamá. 17/19
Esta mañana he dado una rueda de prensa donde explico con detalle todo el caso. Podéis verla aquí 👇18/19
Y aquí podéis ver el escrito de alegaciones que he enviado a la Comisión 👇 19/19
luisgaricano.eu/wp-content/upl…

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More from @lugaricano

Sep 18
Live from Palo Alto! "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs workshop. I will be trying to live tweet (mega jet lagged--flew from HKG--, so I really hope I can keep it up) the papers presented. Watch this thread
Here is the fantastic line up
nber.org/conferences/ec…
Intro talk from Agrawal, Korinec and Brynjolfsson. The assignment: lets not discuss if transformative AI will or not happen. Instead, lets assume it is going going to happen and draw the consequences for makets and the economy. Image
Paper 1: Agrawal–Goldfarb–Gans, "Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative AI"
Q: If “genius” is on tap (Einstein level intelligence), what is this worth—and how does it get allocated ?
A: Paper argues in the short run, human geniuses specialise in questions that are furthest from existing knowledge, where their comparative advantage over AI is greatest. In the long run, routine workers may stay at the edges and eventually be completely displaced as AI efficiency approaches human genius efficiency.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 10
There is widespread sense AI adoption is slowing down and productivity gains are hard to get. Is it true? Why? I just attended the inaugural conference of the Center for AI, Management and Organizations at Hong Kong University. A thread on insights.
1/17 Image
A general answer before going deep in: firm adoption of GenAI is widespread, but it is shallow, and barely profitable. An often repeated point was that only a small minority of firms are seeing P&L impact. Data from a Deloitte&CAMO survey of 109 top executives: 2/17 Image
Executives say they overestimated expected financial returns from AI implementation.
At launch, many expected strong ROI but outcomes disappointed. 45% reported returns below expectations; only 10% exceeded them.
3/17 Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 29
1/10 Good news on AI could be bad news for Europe's debt.
A boom in AI-driven productivity could end decades of slow growth. But for Europe, this silver lining may hide a fiscal storm cloud. Here’s why. Image
2/10
The key is the global real interest rate, r*. Think of it as the price that clears the world's market for assets. For 70+ years, high demand for assets from savers and slowing productivity has kept r* low. This is about to reverse.
siliconcontinent.com/p/r-without-g
3/10
AI changes the game.
It boosts the supply of assets (higher profits, huge data center investments) and lowers demand (richer future generations save less).
More supply + less demand = lower asset prices, which means higher interest rates. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 10
Let's not kid ourselves: Europe can't compete on compute.
- Energy costs 2-3x more than in US.
- Permitting makes building anything a nightmare.
- We lack tech ecosystem.
Catching up in model-building is delusional.

An alternative: Europe can be a smart second mover.

🧵1/10 Image
Nobody knows who will capture the value created by AI: could be chips (NVIDIA), manufacturing (TSMC/ASML), models (OpenAI), or implementation layer.

Our proposal is to tilt the playing field towards this last layer.
2/10
siliconcontinent.substack.com/p/the-smart-se…
What we do have:
- 450 million consumers in a (semi-)unified market.
- Top companies in manufacturing, pharma, automotive. - A highly educated workforce.

The question isn't how to build models - it's how to ensure the value stays at the implementation stage. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical.
This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13 Image
2/The economists' core insight, which Epoch misses, is that progress works itself out of a job.
The more successful a technology becomes, the less it matters economically. Revolutionary technologies shrink their own importance precisely through their success. Larry Summers: Image
3/Consider history's greatest productivity miracle: artificial light.
In 1800, one hour of reading light cost more than a day's wages. By the 1990s, we produced the same light using 1/3,000th the energy. The price fell 40,000x. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 19
1/10 🧵 @masuch_klaus have written a post arguing the late 2010s QE was a big mistake. The debate sounds technical--central banks sold is as technical fine-tuning. But it's massive fiscal policy by unelected officials, creating perverse incentives and wealth transfers. Image
2/10 Fiscal consequences: QE transforms government debt structure. When central banks buy long-term bonds and pay with overnight reserves, they swap fixed-rate debt for floating-rate debt. The state suddenly owes money at today's rates, not yesterday's.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-hidden-c…
3/10 Example: Government issues €100bn in 10-year bonds at 1%. Central bank buys them, creates overnight reserves. When rates hit 3%, annual costs triple from €1bn to €3bn. ECB's €5 trillion portfolio lost ~€650bn when rates rose. Taxpayers absorbed the duration risk.
Read 10 tweets

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