Short thread with reflections on the committee session today.
1. This isn't about Cummings's rehabilitation. You don't have to like him and he clearly has an agenda. HOWEVER, there are things we know went wrong - we just didn't know why. On that, Cummings was devastating. 1/ ~AA
Those are the things on which the government will be badly damaged. For instance, we KNOW we were too late into the March lockdown. This is uncontroversial. The picture of behind-the-scenes chaos is damaging, because it rings completely true. It passes the sniff test. 2/ ~AA
We KNOW the gov't failed to protect care homes. The notion that they had done absolutely no work on the effect releasing untested older patients would have, is very easy to refute. They can just publish it. They won't, because I suspect, it doesn't exist. 3/ ~AA
And, most damning, we KNOW that the gov't repeated the same pattern, the same mistakes in the autumn. Only this time it was against the scientific evidence and - now we know - against the advice of most advisors and ministers. That is simply unforgivable. 4/ ~AA
We know what Downing Street will attempt - we've seen it enough times now. They will stonewall on the issue and say there's an inquiry some time between next year and never, so we all have to wait for that. Hancock is already briefing that it is "beneath him to comment". 5/ ~AA
What Cummings did was to dislodge a number of hanging threads. It's now up to the opposition, tory backbenchers with a conscience and journalists to pull at them. Accountability, transparency, the need to fix failed systems, should override allegiances. I hope they do. 6/6 ~AA
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
"There is an absolutely ferocious row going on in Whitehall over the Australia deal with real pressure to get it resolved by the end of this week. Gove and Eustice are on one side, Truss and Frost on the other.” @pmdfoster👇 - we're going in. 🧵 1/ ft.com/content/8c5f7a…
The government estimates that a free trade agreement with Australia would be worth an additional 0.01-0.02 per cent of GDP over 15 years — or £200m-£500m more than 2018 levels.
So, a tiddler of a trade deal. But it's a must-have if the UK wants to join the CPTPP. 2/
Truss wants a 'zero tariff, zero quota' deal with Australia. A lot has been made of working with "our kinsmen down under" (most recently by pro-Brexit Daniel Hannan 👇).
But it gets thorny when we look at regulations. 3/
Bill Cash opens the EU Scrutiny Committee with a comment on the "very fragile consent" that has been given for the operation of the NI protocol, and @DavidGHFrost's msg to EU to "stop point scoring" and "build a relationship fit for the future". A powerful start - stay w/ us 1/
.@DavidGHFrost says he has 4 priorities: 1. Responsible for managing overall relationship & implementation of TCA 2. Responsible for implementing effective conduct w/ EU and member states 3. Third country trade issues & finding solutions there 4. The opportunities of Brexit 2/
Our relationship w/ EU will "be a bit bumpy for a long time," says @DavidGHFrost. One of his biggest responsibilities will be to identify things that we can do differently that'll "make the biggest difference to our economic success". He should engage with @UKTradeBusiness 3/
The OBR has today confirmed Brexit will cause both a short-term and long-term drop in UK GDP, with the Government's Trade & Cooperation Agreement set to cause a 0.5 per cent short-term hit to GDP and a 4 per cent reduction in productivity in the longer term. 2/
"This paper-thin Brexit deal has already dealt a thousand cuts to UK exporters," says @pimlicat. "In the first month of Brexit, our pork exports to the EU were down 70 per cent, chocolate was down 68 per cent and beer 62 per cent on January 2020 levels." 3/
A THREAD: The war of rhetoric between UK and EU cannot be deescalated while dismissing their complaint as sour grapes over Brexit. It creates a narrative that the UK cannot influence, by declaring fatalistically the EU already decided to 'punish us'. It's also not true. ~AA 1/7
Of course there is an equitable solution to be found but both parties have to look for it. And a precondition to finding it is the ability to see their grievance from their point of view - a skill for which our gov't (and much of our press) has shown little aptitude. ~AA 2/7
This is how it looks to EU leaders: they're battling a variant third wave, for which they see the UK as partly responsible, while our gov't wastes no opportunity to provoke them, humiliate them in front of their electorates, and gloat about its own vaccination programme. ~AA 3/7