New post:

Talking To The Diamond Hands

This is the 3rd and last post of recent reflections about investing and risk.

This post is about how personal risk is.

What you'll find:

moontowermeta.com/talking-to-the…
🧠How Finance Brains Think Of Risk

Investors use math and models to quantify risk and size positions.

But it all rests on an unchallenged, qualitative assumption. Relax it, and people seem less crazy.
🧑‍🤝‍🧑How normies think of risk

I include a short script of how you can talk to a normal person about risk.

I explain what it means when you disagree. Sometimes it's ignorance. Sometimes it's different goals.

But you won't know unless you engage. The script helps you engage.
Risk is the possibility of not reaching your goals. It's not a formula.

Understand:

🛒"need to have" vs "like to have"
🏆The role of thymos
😞regret
This post will help you reflect on:

🎯Your goals and your reasons for them
📓 Risk management rules that match your objective
🤳The personal aspect of risk and goals.

I hope this post sparks thought, empathy, and differentiating between reckless and when "reckless" is the way
Separately, this is the 3rd and final post of my recent reflections. I appreciate the awesome response the prior 2 received.

Investing Feels Like Astrology moontowermeta.com/why-investing-…

My mistakes in porting trading ideas to investing
moontowermeta.com/how-i-misappli…
And finally one last bit...I saw this tweet by @BrentBeshore

So I went to @morganhousel site and found a very related recent post that resonated.

collaborativefund.com/blog/play-your…

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More from @KrisAbdelmessih

27 May
A musing from the "grass is greener" file

Finance is a super competitive "blood from a stone" business. It has a lot of optimization to squeeze perma-threatened margins.

It's draining in that zero-sum way and because it's a scale business the rewards return to scale (& owners)
As the last year showed, optimizations often revolve around liquifying excess capacity, redundancy.

It's short vol in that sense since options are sold. Time decay on slack, will cost you customers in short term.
As @moreproteinbars mentioned on Corey's pod the fear in commodities is to the upside because shortages are what destabilize markets

(Oil call skew is anti-correlated to excess days-to-cover)

Anyway...
Read 11 tweets
15 May
Sharing more widely as DMs asking me to evaluate trade ideas grow.

I'll add a few more points...
Categories of relative vol trading:

-cross-sectional equity
-dispersion
-cap structure rel value
-vix/spx complex

-cross-sectional macro/commods
-intra-commod complex

(last 2 were my focus for past 15 yrs)
None of this should be attempted at home unless you listened to @darjohn25 with Corey and thought "yea, I could do that"

it's more natural to use vol-informed ideas to structure directional option trades (if you dig thru the vol wiki there's plenty on how to think about this)
Read 9 tweets
13 May
I like Pat giving an economic reason of why regime shifts in surface behavior happen. In this example it's the washing out of vol sellers.

I'll give another example from oil markets...
Banks and market makers get short say an 80%-60% put spread every year due to the annual Hacienda hedge. If the market drops, vol beta is strong...but what if the market trades below that 80% strike...
Now the hedgers are short an ITM puts and long an OTM put. In other words, they went from being short a PS to being long skew on risk reversal. The inventory causes the call skew to firm, and the vol beta to decline to the downside as dynamic hedgers are no longer stressed lower
Read 7 tweets
12 May
Reading about scarcity mindset from @NeckarValue and the Horowitz interview

We have a hack at home to help (my wife picked it up from a pod guest maybe) for keeping scarcity mind away:

"You can never be negative when you're in a state of gratitude"
I have found the phrase weirdly effective.

I had a scarce mindset until my 30s. My wife is anything but and I literally watched by example why it's so pointless.

(She's experienced scarcity in scary ways that her abundance mindset was almost necessarily adaptive)
Not everyone feels gratitude and it's not my place to judge anyone.

But if you do self-identity as having gratitude and want to break scarcity thinking loops, maybe it will help.

If not, no harm just leave it alone.

You can't be negative when you're in a state of gratitude
Read 4 tweets
11 May
Look closely Sam's dropping hints.

The best trading/mm firms aren't just capturing spreads. They use market intel to read the table and make big bets. Obsession was finding real EV knowing they had bankroll to bet big when they found it.
It ties back to a lesson I've mentioned before and makes sense when your bankroll is large

if you make money every day you're leaving money on the table

You don't close trades unless your getting edge to do so.
Like Darrin said on @choffstein pod...if you sell a tail you must collect the whole premium otherwise the times you lose multiples mean you def have neg ev

Example below...
Read 4 tweets
10 May
Outstanding.

That's an interview with a trader.

Last 10 minutes advice so 🔥🔥. Real talk.
A few favorite takeaways:

Building sims instead of backtesting as a way to get more samples. Table stakes to get a fingertip feel especially when you don't get the apprentice experience

(btw, doing this gig w/o being an apprentice sounds impossible so huge props to Darrin)
The idea of pricing out financial products to the penny. Darrin called it "back-office" kinda stuff that retail doesn't do. Corey said he does this too.

This is exactly what you do at a mm/arb shop. Giant spreadsheets pricing fair value for financial products. Not optional work
Read 9 tweets

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