Early thread about Spiteful Squad today because I'm going to be on a flight tonight to California. 1/x
ALSA of 7.33. Looking at the Card Evaluation Metagame graph, it seems that it's actually been going down since the start of the format. Maybe people are comparing it to Star Pupil, and moving it down as Pupil goes down? 2/x
Squad might look similar to Star Pupil, as it has the same modular-like ability. But they are fundamentally different cards. Pupil's is an aggressive 1-drop that needs extra +1/+1 counters to function, while Squad needs no extra counters and gums up the ground with value. 3/x
Squad's deathtouch lets it trade with any ground creatures, which is especially relevant against big Fractals. The ideal scenario is to threaten to trade it off with a big creature and put its counters on a flier; the threat of this will often prevent attacks altogether. 4/x
And even if you don't have fliers, the 2 counters helps with a lot with grinding on the ground. I've won several games with Squads and Pilgrims eventually trading off with all of my opponent's creatures. 5/x
Something I heard someone say near the start of the format is "the more Rise of Extus you have, the more Spiteful Squads you want." And I think that rings very true: Squad is very much a grindy card, not an aggressive one. You *can* attack with Squad, but you'd rather block. 6/x
The main problem with Squad is that there's a lot of 4s already in Silverquill. Basically all decks would rather have Combat Professor or Specter of the Fens. You can only have so many 4s, and Squad is much worse at playing offense. But sometimes you don't have that luxury. 7/x
Conclusion: while Squad isn't your first choice for 4s, it's still definitely playable as a powerful defensive and grindy card. It goes very well in grindy Silverquill or Mardu decks, along with cards like Pilgrim or Rise. 8/8
Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7