*PORTMAN VOTES AYE on advancing the 1/6 Commission
I count 6 Republicans, 4 shy of overcoming McConnell-led filibuster.
The other 5 Republicans who have voted to advance the 1/6 Commission, unlike Portman, voted to convict Trump of inciting 1/6:
*SASSE
*CASSIDY
*COLLINS
*MURKOWSKI
*ROMNEY
The vote right now is 54-35, which is a losing vote in the U.S. Senate.
A "No" vote is irrelevant to the outcome.
In the U.S. Senate, 59-1 would lose because of the filibuster rule.
You must get 60.
Waiting on TOOMEY, who told me last night he is undecided but already voted to convict Trump for inciting the 1/6 insurrection.
Burr, who also voted to convict Trump, has previously expressed opposition to a commission, preferring an internal Senate probe like he did on Russia.
If they wanted to, all of the Republicans who wanted to filibuster save 1 could have just left town without voting with no effect whatsoever on the outcome.
The vote has been called. The U.S. Senate, where winning a vote by 19 votes means you still lose:
The 1/6 Commission vote is a great example of how *attendance is not required* for a successful filibuster.
If you needed 41 votes to filibuster and not 60 to end one, yesterday *might* have gone differently.
At minimum, 6 more Republicans would have had to show up and vote.
The way the Senate rules work, a 59-1 vote is a victory for the 1. Likewise 54 loses to 35.
You need 60. I think @NormOrnstein has proposed 41 affirmative votes and some other tweaks to at minimum require attendance and make a filibuster harder work than it is today.
I don't think a 41 vote requirement would mean all that much in practice though. Take yesterday: Schumer needed consent of the Republicans to schedule the vote when he scheduled it.
Most of what the Senate does is done by *unanimous consent.* Once you start mucking with rules...
It is actually possible to not miss any Senate votes.
Susan Collins hasn't missed any.
Chuck Grassley went 27 years without missing a vote before his positive COVID test.
Senators often know when their votes won't change the outcome, and so will skip town for a family function, a funeral, a codel, a medical appointment, etc. Others refuse to do that because they see the vote itself as very important even if outcome doesn't change.
It's pretty darn rare for a missing lawmaker to actually change the outcome, and it didn't today.
Activity on the Senate floor. I think I heard Mike Lee say "9 a.m."
Hopefully that means they adjourn and let the staff (and yours truly) go home for a bit???
Floor staff in intense discussion with Elizabeth MacDonough, the parliamentarian. Not sure what procedure they are discussing. Durbin, Schatz chatting away while they figure it out.
AFTER ALL THAT, THE SENATE HAS ADJOURNED UNTIL 9 AM AND I AM GOING HOME.
Dick Durbin on the Senate floor holding down the fort until the Republicans decide they are done mini-filibustering.
While you are here and waiting, I recommend you pass the time by watching Durbin's epic speech about the evils of the aluminum baseball bat. c-span.org/video/?c450470…
Trust me, it's better than his speeches against energy drinks.
We're now on the John Kennedy version of tonight's mini-buster. Says he doesn't think people know what's in the bill. Says their staffs know more about the bill than they do and floats letting the staff vote.
Kennedy hasn't talked about the bill yet, but lots of talk-talk.
Kennedy said he doesn't think there was a true open amendment process. (There were more votes on this bill than any non-reconciliation bill in recent memory, though).