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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
May 29, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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It appears this pretty looking storm is doing some serious damage. Stay safe Ōtautahi. Image
And we have a live report from north Canterbury.
NOTE: This is not an official forecast. But it is alarming. It seems that that peculiar cloud formation is special in a number of rather alarming ways. [Image: @NOAA's GFS model forecast, latest run.]
The Euro @ECMWF model is saying pretty much the same thing. The scale is different so it doesn't look as bad. Both of these are till midday on Thursday. Image
Longer range forecasts show there's not a lot of relief in sight. A second big rain is due to arrive on Saturday. But Northland gets the worst of that. ImageImage
Live coverage from the @NZStuff crew here >> stuff.co.nz/national/weath…
Official Met Service warnings here >> metservice.com/warnings/home
And live animations of the storm causing all this here >> zoom.earth/#view=-36.3,17…
Amazing effort to rescue the guy swept away in his car in this. Stuff's live coverage of this flooding event is superb >> stuff.co.nz/national/weath… Image
The cause of these #CanterburyFloods is remarkable.

This animation (Oz's Access-G Model) starts on Thursday at midday and runs to the end of the southern drama around midday on Tuesday. The water is coming from the tropics.
Here (Euro @ECMWF model) starts Saturday Morning and provides a closeup view through to the end. The moisture that comes in from the East circles up into Northland and then runs up the East Coast of the North Island.

Its definitely a freakish weather event. #CanterburyFloods
I have let this version (Canada's CMC Model) run to the end.Turns out something similar of tropical origins may be coming through next week. Albeit not nearly as impactful. A big wet westerly front running from Cape Reinga to Bluff. #CanterburyFloods.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 18
COP29 Erasure – COP29 Media Center Crippled scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
The official video record of COP29 is being erased every 12 hours & nobody here knows
The Media Center for UNFCCC COP meetings was transformed in 2021 in Glasgow during the UK Presidency of the COP. The new high tech set up has cameras in all official meeting places recording the events in full. The content from this system is then made available to media in the MEDIA Center via the IBC (Interational Broadcast Center) platform.
The center also has desks for several hundred journalists to work during the COP.
The first signs came on Thursday day four (14 November 2024) of COP29 last week during the first week of the COP. Ordinarily reporters attending COPs can request access to get files downloaded through a media desk. This can be useful to extract quotes or report on events that we are unable to attend due to timetable clashes etc.
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 12
The wrong headed and frankly selfish approach of NZME and STUFF on the issue of the "Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill" [see: mch.govt.nz/our-work/broad…] is deeply problematic for independent and digital native publishing companies such as @Scoop.

Part 1 of my thoughts on the subject can be found here.

"Google's Support For Democracy And Media In NZ" scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
Other medium sized digital native publications including @NewsroomNZ and @TheSpinoffTV are in a similar position to us - as well as a large group of smaller independent digital and print publications across New Zealand.
.@Google has made it very clear to the Government that it will withdraw its support for NZ media companies should this Bill pass. It considers the proposal to be a link tax and that the precedent that this would create for how the internet works globally is something that it cannot accept. As this is a global policy issue it will not back down on this.
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 5
The final pre-election comedy roasts of @realDonaldTrump VIDEO-THREAD

/1 Jimmy Kimmel

Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric, Epstein Bombshells Dropped & Jimmy's Electio... via @YouTube
/2 Stephen Colbert

Senior Women Back Harris In Iowa | America's Fresh Start | Trump vs. The... via @YouTube
@YouTube John Oliver on with Stephen Colbert.

The Weirdest Moments Of John Oliver's 11 Seasons Hosting "Last Week Toni... via @YouTube
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
Who owns RCP politics?

Because…

it’s headline arithmetic system is borked

259 to 269 electoral votes ain’t possible Image
That said at the moment This is now Trump’s election to lose in the polling. And the turning point was September 30th. Image
What happened on September 30th?

A lot of really bad shit in Gaza. And through most of October.

So it looks like if Kamala Harris loses the election it is because of Democratic Party support for Israel’s Genocide. Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
U.S. warns Tehran against retaliation after Israeli strikes in Iran Haaretz haaretz.com/us-news/2024-1…
The Biden administration has told Tehran through an intermediary that it should avoid responding to the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday and allow the U.S. to bring an end to the ongoing cycle of hostilities between the nations,

The messages were relayed through a third-party country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating that the U.S. would increase its efforts in the coming days to achieve an agreement to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. An Iranian response to the strike, the message warned, would hinder the American diplomatic efforts in the region.

Since the start of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday night, the U.S. administration has been signaling that this move aligns with President Biden's requests to Israel to target only military sites, rather than oil production facilities or Iran's nuclear program.

In the weeks leading up to the strike, Biden provided Israel with a ballistic missile defense system, while also publicly opposing an Israeli strike that would harm Iran's oil industry, due to concerns that such an action would destabilize oil markets and increase global energy prices.

A senior administration official said Biden encouraged "Prime Minister [Netanyahu] to design a response that served to deter further attacks in Israel while reducing risk of further escalation."

The administration clarified that the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli strike, but it's warning to Iran included a message that an Iranian response against Israel might lead to direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

"Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack ... If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again," a senior administration official said. "This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran."

In the days leading up to the IDF offensive, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle Eastin an effort to revive negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held there.

The French government convened an international conference in Paris on the war in Lebanon, aiming to build a global consensus for ending the conflict based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France also sent a direct message to Iran, urging it to avoid responding to the Israeli strike to avoid disrupting these efforts.
… continues.
The Americans are currently examining two possible deals regarding Gaza. One option is a "small deal" under which a single-digit number of hostages held by Hamas would be released, and Israel would announce a two-week ceasefire in the region. It remains unclear if this deal would include the release of a certain number of Palestinian prisoners. The goal of this deal would be to lay the groundwork for a larger agreement, with precise details to be negotiated during the limited cease-fire, ultimately leading to the release of all hostages and an end to the war.

Meanwhile, a more extensive deal is also being considered, one that would involve the release of all hostages, an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to the war. This option currently appears less likely and is expected to face strong opposition from Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition partners from the far-right parties – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Both ministers have voiced opposition to reopening negotiations for a hostage deal and expressed disapproval in security cabinet discussions of even a smaller deal that would include a temporary cease-fire. The U.S. administration is aware of their opposition but hopes that if Hamas agrees to one of the proposals, public pressure in Israel might compel the government to agree to the deal.

/ends @threadreaderapp unroll
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
Video Thread: Israel-Gaza-Lebanon Security Crisis.

This post Israeli calibrated retaliation on Iran for its attacks during the height of this crisis (attacks by Iran also very calibrated) opens the Overton Window for a resolution of the entire post, October 7th Hamas Attack,initiated crisis.

It also shows considerable diplomatic pressure - possibly the most intense so far- was applied on Israel by the U.S to secure this result.

youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…

The first video is from @AJEnglish’s flagship Inside Story breaking news service and was published yesterday, before last nights very calibrated Israeli response by Israel over night. One which has not escalated the crisis.

It addresses divided European policy positions on the issue of an arms embargo on Israel - Spain-France (yes) vs Germany Netherlands. Other nations are also split and several have formally announced recognition of Palestine.

[NB: The UK is now out of Europe and no longer has a formal influence in Brussels EU institutional deliberations .]
🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0… via @YouTube

@AJEnglish’s love coverage of the attack is still watchable and begins roughly one hour ago on the current live stream.

Aljazeera ought to publish this full live stream as it is outstanding.

The Inside Story episode mentioned above appears to precede the attacks based on initial remarks from participants. It should be available on demand on YouTube Shortly.

The conclusion we can draw from this is that U.S. public and private diplomacy around this was extremely deftly managed and choreographed.

And this is therefore the best opportunity to end this war since it started. Israel may have even agreed on a communications strategy going forward on this, however implausible this suggestion may seem.
Correction: The @InsideStory édition on Europe mentioned in the OP was live. But I suspect recorded yesterday based on speakers referring to the attacks having not yet occurred in the opening minutes.

This is a screenshot showing the time spot of broadcast of early Aljazeera coverage of the attacks. 2.20 pm CEST Is the current time.

To view this now you can scroll back the red line to around 10 hours ago.Image
Read 10 tweets

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