Upstream flow gauges in Temuka, Rangitata, Rakaia & Waimakariri appear to be peaking or in the case of the Waimakariri close to peaking.
Meanwhile the official ECAN alerts page seems to not be freaking out, so that's all good >> ecan.govt.nz/home/flood-war….
Steady as she flows.
"Breakouts" in the Ashburton vicinity & inland, are the major concern at present. But whatever "breakouts" are they sound a lot less alarming than floods and evacuations.
Also no alarm around the major rivers, yet. Also good.
The remaining concern will be river mouth flood/tide collisions. High tide timing today is around 6.30am near Timaru, 7.50am at the Rakaia and around 8.30am in Christchuch and at the Waimakariri river mouth.
And there is also 40kmh onshore wind and waves. However on the other hand these are steep rivers, they are not very tidal and the river beds and mouths are designed for huge floods. And as ECAN isn't mentioning them I don't think they are worried either. Except about sightseeing.
As usual,the worst flooding will almost certainly be in Christchurch itself, as it is low lying and has never sorted out its rivers, over more than 150 years.
As for who to blame, if it happens again, I nominate Brownlee. He was in charge and his electorate was flood prone.
Meanwhile this storm is still full on blasting Te Wai Pounamu's East Coast with high winds and rain from Oamaru to Wellington now just after midnight.
Tomorrow is going to be a terrible day to be on the roads in NZ. Everywhere from the look of things.
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The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.
“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”
The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.
As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.
How can this still be continuing?
How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.
It is certainly already nearly as desolate.
Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.
This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.
Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”
“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”
For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.
And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.
The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.
And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”
The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.
Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.
This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.
Thread….
I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.
Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.
Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2
The shear speed with which the events unfolded in Syria was and remains breathtaking. As if perhaps divinely directed.
Even Netanyahu’s response - to bomb Damascus- whilst monstrous in both it’s paranoia and execution is positive, in that it has now ruled Israel completely out of the process of rebuilding Syria which will soon commence.
Netanyahu openly proclaimed his messianic ambition in New York to a Nearly empty UNGA assembly meeting hall, his vision of a greater Israel that included Syria. And no doubt he remains enthralled to these ideas. But by bombing Damascus he just ruled himself out as a partner for peace in the region. /3
If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:
1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…
2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.
3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.
Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube
From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.
The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.
“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.
The debate is exactly that and all speakers are experts in different aspects of the Syrian Question and the players. Which include.
- the rebel group whose lightning speed taking of Aleppo HTS/formerly Al Nusra over the last 4 days initiated this new crisis currently in the north of Syria but which HTS and other anti Assad forces in Syria appear to be intent on heading to Damascus to displace Assad.
Note: As you can see here (map) Damascus is just north of due east of the Israel-Lebanon border south east of Beirut & very close to Israel. (Check out the 1967 war & Angolan Heights to find out why)
The war crimes attorney, French, based in Lyon, who lodged the first war crimes complaint against Netanyahu was Giles Devers.
He recently died.
The complaint was based on the #GreatMarchOfReturn IDF operations during which 223 Palestinians were shot
The protests:
30 March 2018 – 27 December 2019
(1 year, 8 months, 3 weeks and 6 days)
…. peaceful. Young people gathered on the border and threw stones at snipers on defensive mounds above the protest area. A varying number of protestors were shot each day. including medics and members of the media.
The protests reached their zenith when Trump was present in Jerusalem for the opening of a U.S. embassy there during his first term as President.
Forensic evidence was collected for the prosecution case by a team from Gaza’s Ministry of Health - and supervised by my colleague, Kiwi Journalist Julie Webb Pullman.
And this evidence and formed the substance of the first complaint laid by Advocat Giles Devers of “War Crimes” against Israel’s Govt and the IDF.