Kevin Wilson Profile picture
May 30, 2021 16 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

36 new cases were reported in the region: 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 9 in New Brunswick, and 20 in Nova Scotia.

1 new death was reported, bringing the regional total to 134.

There are now 764 known, active cases in the region.
PEI didn't update their numbers today, leaving them with 12 known, active cases.
NL reported 7 new cases today:

1 in the Central health region.

2 in the Eastern region.

4 in the Western region

All new cases are close contacts of existing cases.

There are now 104 known, active cases in NL.
The Central region outbreak saw a lot of progress over the weekend.

There's an emerging cluster in the Western health region towards Stephenville, with increased restrictions being put in place in the immediate area.

Community testing is being rolled out.
NB reported 9 new cases today:

5 in Moncton (4 close contacts, 1 under investigation)

1 in Saint John (under investigation)

2 in Fredericton (close contacts)

1 in Miramichi (close contact)

There are now 143 known, active cases in NB.
NS reported 20 new cases today:

1 in the Western zone

5 in the Eastern zone

14 in the Halifax area (Central zone)

1 new death was reported in the Halifax area, making the provincial total 85.

There are now 505 known, active cases in NS.
NS Outbreak Detailed:

Restrictions/case levels map

Case origins timeline

Cases per capita timeline with Halifax emphasized

Comparison of Halifax outbreak wind-down to the worst outbreak in each health region in the country (scaled peak-to-peak)
The Northern and Western zones both ticked down a level on the map. Halifax will probably do so tomorrow. Eastern zone is a few days behind that.

Halifax is now 3 weeks out from it's peak and cases are down ~85%
Regional Summary:

NB: Some untraced cases in Moncton/Fredericton areas. Hasn't gone anywhere yet.

NS: Ongoing progress, no setbacks yet.

PEI: All quiet.

NL: Solid progress in Central region cluster, emerging Western region cluster (details TBD)
You can see the entire pandemic timeline for the Atlantic region and surrounding area in the animation.

Each tick is a week since the start of the pandemic in March of last year.
Vaccine Roll-Out Metrics

1st graph shows how many days since each province had enough doses to cover their current usage.

2nd graph shows percent of eligible population that is newly vaccinated each day

3rd graph shows days ahead/behind versus national average
This animation shows each province's vaccination pace as a percent of the pace they need to each 80% first dose coverage by the end of June (based on how many they have already vaccinated and how much time is left).

Older data becomes less visible over time.
Here is the current percent of the eligible population of each province covered by at least one vaccine dose (Territories shown in the 2nd graph).
Graph shows actual first dose coverage (blue) compared to a charitable maximum (green) that accounts for previously given 2nd doses and gives a 5-day grace period on deliveries.

Provinces are sorted from smallest (good) to largest (bad) gap between actual/potential coverage.
Nightly quick look at how the rest of the country is doing.
That's it for tonight's update.

Take care of one another and have a great rest of the weekend.

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More from @WilsonKM2

Aug 15, 2021
The Great Big Canadian Pandemic Summary Thread (5th edition)

First a summary of the pandemic in Canada.

Bonus analysis on pandemic outcomes in Canadian health regions and US counties
For all the graphs, I have the national range in the background in grey: the bottom is the lowest per capita rate by any health region and the top is the highest per capita rate.

So everything will be visible on the same scale.

Examples:
Read 32 tweets
Aug 14, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

No one updated their numbers, so I'll just do the full weekend report on yesterday's numbers.

There are currently 126 known, active cases in the region.
The test positivity rate in the region was 0.3%
There are currently 9 known, active cases in PEI, but no known outbreaks/community transmission, and no one is in hospital.
Read 17 tweets
Aug 14, 2021
Quick thread on vaccines, outbreaks, and why *who* is vaccinated as much as how many (although both are very important)
There's a pre-print out that gives estimates (based on sero-prevalence) of the probability of needing to go to the hospital or dying if infected with SARS-CoV-2 for a series of age brackets: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
If you know a population's age structure, you can somewhat estimate what an outbreak of a given number of infections will look like in terms of number of hospitalizations and deaths.

And if you know vaccine coverage, you can update those estimates for those effects, too.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 13, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

27 new cases were reported:

2 in PEI (travel-related)

4 in Newfoundland and Labrador: 1 in Labrador-Grenfell, 3 in the Eastern Health region (all travel)

2 in Nova Scotia: 1 each in the Northern (travel) and Eastern (under investigation) zones ImageImageImageImage
New Brunswick reported 19 new cases:

2 each in Fredericton (under investigation), Campbellton (under investigation), and Bathurst (close contacts).

3 in Saint John (2 travel-related, 1 under investigation)

10 in Moncton (5 contacts, 5 under investigation).
There are now 126 known, active cases in the Atlantic region, of which 84 are in NB (and62 are in the Moncton area).
Read 12 tweets
Aug 12, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

18* new cases were reported

11 in New Brunswick: 2 in Saint John (travel), 9 in Moncton (3 close contacts, 6 under investigation)

7* in Nova Scotia: 1 each in Western (travel) and Eastern (contact), and 5 in Halifax (all travel, 3 old/unreported) ImageImageImageImage
Regional Summary

Remains quiet save for the outbreak in the Moncton area.

Things still getting worse in Maine. Image
Zoom in on NB:

1st graph is case timeline for NB

2nd is cases per capita for all health regions with Moncton emphasized.

3rd is hospitalizations

4th is deaths ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

33 new cases were reported: 2 each in PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador, 12 in New Brunswick, and 17 in Nova Scotia.

There are now 709 known, active cases in the region.
PEI reported 2 new cases today, both related to travel outside the region and both detected during routine testing in isolation.

There are now 14 known, active cases in PEI.
NL also reported 2 new cases today:

1 each in the Central (close contact) and Western (travel-related) health regions.

Neither new cases is connected to each region's respective clusters, both of which remain under investigation.

There are now 101 known, active cases in NL.
Read 23 tweets

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