With 0 deaths across England from COVID today, I am reminded that on April 22, 2021, England downgraded its epidemic to "endemic" status when an infection no longer is causing morbidity/mortality to justify extreme measures adopted earlier without vax news.yahoo.com/covid-pandemic…
Now the UK is at 58% 1st dose and we are at about 50% 1st dose because they adopted a 1st dose first strategy so going faster than we - please see World Vaccine tracker here. And UK does a lot of testing & has seen B.1.617 but has not changed 0 death mark ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…
You can see and track cases/hospitalizations/deaths here at Worldometer across regions & this is what UK rate looks like. When hospitalizations/deaths become DECOUPLED from cases with vax, not prudent to track cases as metric of re-opening (or variants) worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Schools opened full-time in March in UK with kids <12 not requiring masks (teachers vax). On May 17, UK stopped masking for older children (12-18) because admissions so low (adult vax); learning enhanced without masks; they used clean metric (had downgraded to endemic on April 22
UK/Europe has had better approach to in-person learning than US all along. Here are numbers in CA. 5 deaths across state with our current first vax rate of 63.9% (covid19.ca.gov/vaccination-pr…). Lowest in-person learning in US covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboar…
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These days in U.S., asked what end of epidemic would look like & I wanted to explain why COVID - once controlled- will be more like measles (where public doesn't think about every day) than influenza (where public does think about in winter). COVID has highly effective vaccine
like measles does - the effectiveness of the measles vaccine is high like the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine - one dose 93% effective and two doses 97% effective per original studies. We give measles vax fda.gov/consumers/cons…).
two doses in childhood & then high exposure populations like healthcare workers/international travelers often given booster - schedule is here. We have already discussed that T cells from measles vaccination last a long time -remember paper cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/m….
Wanted to talk to you about our #inoculum hypothesis and may have particular relevance in the vaccine era. Our idea was -after seeing that mitigation procedures like masks didn't always block transmission especially if just cloth or plain surgical, but seemed associated with less
severe disease and more asymptomatic infection - was that if you are exposed to less viral inoculum or dose, more likely to get mild disease. We first explored this hypothesis here and then, given that even asymptomatic or mild infection triggered T cells, link.springer.com/article/10.100…
we hypothesized that anything that would drive the infection towards asymptomatic or mild (if unlucky enough to be exposed) while awaiting a vaccine was helpful -e.g. nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like masks nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
I am so relieved. Let's take this victory for now towards a science-based approach to outside masking for children in camps this summer & keep working towards rest once I take a little break from this my friends. news.yahoo.com/cdc-relaxes-gu…
By the way, this guidance means no unvax person has to make outside as per the science. This is good to be aligned with WHO who has been so right on so many things (natural immunity, children <5 don't need to mask, no outside masking unless crowded) wsj.com/articles/take-…
Due to need to go back to my "real work" in academia, I will be taking short break from Twitter. However, if interested, I tried to summarize my thoughts on why we won't need boosters anytime soon in this article technical-leaps.org/booster-shot/ and less washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
In terms of COVID origins, effectiveness of the vaccines & why CDC messaged what they did (of course you still can mask if more comfortable as individual choice) & global vaccine equity please watch this segment from @democracynow democracynow.org/2021/5/27/covi…
Much confusion about children should not be masked outdoors this summer & return to normal life (with masks removed in school like UK once hospitalization or cases low in area)- Explain in voice on @NPR & print in WaPo washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… npr.org/podcasts/47885…
There is much upset today: Please listen to this segment if you can. 1) CDC & AAP will only consider a metric (of cases or hospitalizations in community) for lifting masks on kids, we propose 3-5 hospitalizations/100K; 2) @KrugAlli has detailed comparisons on flu vs COVID in kids
@TracyBethHoeg, @drlucymcbride, @KrugAlli & I put together studies on how children less likely to transmit than adults here which refutes the unfortunate claim that children become vectors for adults so must continue restrictions to protect adults
This is not science-based; this is emotional. And there are so many inconsistencies from a pediatric-based organization (AAP) who is not fighting for children to be in school, not discussing mental health effects, & discuss masking children outside:
If you put together our WaPo piece from today with the data from Yahoo News , you can see that children now are very low risk in the US (without masking) because of the power of vax in adults; we have to update our recs with time due to vax news.yahoo.com/youngest-child… via @YahooNews
As an Infectious Diseases doctor, am very sensitive to the idea of people being called vectors -can lead to stigma. Children less likely to transmit infection than adults (school studies show it is usually adults to children if anything) so they are not vectors. Adult vax
Here are some papers on this (that children not efficient transmitters): Seropositivity among children was more closely linked to exposure at home than at the daycare thelancet.com/journals/lanch…