Thread by @DefenseNigeria

Chad and the Central African republic on the brinks of war.

"This premeditated attack will not go unpunished."

- Chad's defence ministry

Strong words indeed. What happened?

On Sunday Chad's defence ministry said troops from the Central African Republic attacked a Chadian military post, killed one soldier, and kidnapped and executed five others

The heavily armed Russian trained troops attacked a post manned by 12 Chadian soldiers near Chad's 1,000-km border with CAR. The CAR's military police then contacted the Chadian embassy in Bangui to come collect the bodies of the five soldiers executed by CAR forces.

This sparked outrage, with the Chadian military promising retribution. To quote Chads Defence ministert verbatim:

QUOTE

This extremely serious war crime and this premeditated murderous attack, planned and carried out within Chad cannot go unpunished.

END QUOTE.

However the CAR accused Chad of fueling instability in the CAR by arming rebel groups, and said its troops pursued one such rebel group near the Chadian border, resulting in the deaths of troops on both sides. The CAR will not tolerate another March 2014 incident.

For those wondering what the incident was. In March 2014 Chadian troops crossed into the CAR and killed 24 people in the nations capital Bangui. They opened fire on residents of Christian neighbourhoods in response to Chadian troops being attacked by Christian militia.

Chadian troops was accused of supporting the rebels, who are mostly Muslims. Hatred between Christians and Muslims skyrocketed shortly after with each sides committing atrocious barbarous acts. We talking about acts of cannibalism and children's heads being cut off.

Lets hope cooler heads prevail. Despite the sabre rattling the Chadian military is no joke when it comes to conflicts of this nature. They have arguably the best "desert army" in the world, and in an all out conflict will sweep CAR forces aside without external intervention.

But this could draw in the Russians who have close security cooperation with the Central African republic ..which in turn could draw in the French, who have similar security arrangement with Chad.

In March 2021 Emmanual Macron asked the French armed forces to prepare for high intensity war. This kicked off OPERATIOM ORION, in which all French military capabilities will be involved on a scale that has not been tested in decades.

Two months prior in January, the French General Staff quietly created ten task forces to examine the country’s readiness for a high intensity war. I wrote a thread concerning this development some time ago. To quote the French army chief Thierry Burkhard verbatim:

QUOTE

We have to prepare for war. This requires a “hardening” of the army. At present we maintain 5,100 soldiers in the Sahel. Future operations will involve several brigades that is 25,000 soldiers. We will be tested more and more brutally. We have to face it.

END OF QUOTE

So the obvious question, why is France preparing for high intensity warfare?..and by the way, where will this war be fought? Not in Europe, definitely not in Asia. Your guess is as good as mine. AFRICA. The world's guinea pig for testing geo-political strength.

Why would a nation that profess to want nothing but peace in Africa be preparing for high intensity war in Africa? Its simple. Protecting its interest. France has watched in disbelief, its influence erode in recent years. In North Africa they lost Libya to Russia and Turkey.

They lost the CAR to Russia. In West Africa, there is a resurgent Nigeria that have been expanding and modernizing its military. The CAR President was in Abuja last week, where he said the CAR was looking to rebuild its army and soliciated Nigeria's assistance. The dictators

..they once relied on to maintain French influence and keep the population in check are either dead, as is case with Chad, where the death of Idris Derby sparked pro-democracy movement, or those about to die as is the case with almost 90 year old Paul Biya.

The nightmarish scenario Paris hoped will never happen is happening right in front of their eyes. That is francophone states are gravitating towards Nigeria, and an increasingly assertive and revitalized ECOWAS, with zero tolerance for dictatorship among member states.

..just yesterday West African leaders, meeting in a regional summit, suspended Mali from ECOWAS after a second coup by the Malian military. The suspension from ECOWAS takes immediate effect until the deadline of the end of February 2022 when they are supposed to hand over

French influence in West Africa has so diminished, they are now looking towards Southern Africa. Theyve made overtures to Rwanda and Namibia in recent days. They are looking towards forging relations with South Africa to combat the ISIS affiliated militants in Mozambique.

The biggest mistake South Africa can make will be to accept Macrons proposal for close military ties to tackle ISIS in Mozambique.

Two weeks ago at the COVID 19 Summit, Emmanual Macron pulled PMB aside and offered military cooperation with Nigeria to help in the fight tackle terrorism in Lake Chad.

Today are making the same offer to South Africa. The bizzare call by Emmanual Macron to have the French military prepare for high intensity war is indicative of the fact that France will not give up its influence without a fight.

Africa should be ready for another Maskirovska and formulate a strategy to respond effectively.