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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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1 Jun, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Let's play a little game: "2021 Liz Truss vs 2016 Liz Truss"

We all know how gung-ho LT is about her shoddy trade deals, and our terrible Brexit arrangement with the EU.

But what did she use to think back in the day, before ambition overtook principles, and she faked amnesia? ImageImageImageImage
Hmm, is that all you've got, Liz?

Actually, no... ImageImageImageImage
That's got to be it, right Liz? After all, you seemed pretty convinced at the time that the EU was the way to go.

What's that, there's more?

There you have it, folks. 2016 Liz Truss trounces 2021 Liz Truss by one fall, two submissions and a knockout. ImageImage
It shouldn't need saying, but 2021 so 🤷🏻‍♂️

The result of the referendum did nothing to influence the quality of Brexit itself. (Only whether we go ahead or not.) It's impossible to vote to make a bad idea good!

So the only thing that's changed is the focus of her ambition.

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
1 Jun
Lots of people seem to be excited about the zero covid deaths reported today for the UK.

But they're forgetting the bank holiday effect, which delays death reporting.

Look at the stats for deaths announced around the early May bank holiday to see an example of this in action...
And this time, we've also got half term to contend with. Labs won't necessarily be as fully staffed as usual.

So to sum up, we're coming off a weekend AND a bank holiday AND it's half term.

All three of these elements will reduce the timely reporting of deaths.
Another data point...

Last time zero covid deaths were reported was 30 July 2020.

But when the delayed reporting finally caught up, it turned out that actually 10 people had died that day rather than none.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
1 Jun
Hurrah! Only 446 days after Boris Johnson warned us we should expect to lose loved ones before their time, Heathrow Airport has dedicated a terminal to flights from the most high-risk countries.

(If they're doing it now, they could have done it before. They've not built extra.)
The next thing to watch out for: do 100% of passengers landing at the new "red" terminal get taken directly to quarantine hotels?

In theory, nobody should be leaving the airport except the staff who work there (and eligible flight crews). Everyone else should be hotel-bound.
One more thing to watch out for: since by definition the average passenger arriving at the "red" terminal is more dangerous than a passenger arriving at another terminal, will very strict social distancing be in place across the entirety of the red terminal and up to the hotels?
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
1 Jun
Still seeing claims on Twitter that COVID-19 only has an infection fatality rate of 0.1%.

Since 127,782 people in the UK have died with covid (conservative estimate) out of an UK population of 68.2 million, 0.187% of the population died.

So 0.1% is *literally* impossible.
To put it in different terms...

If someone claims there's a maximum of 3 red balls in a bag of balls, and you pull out 4+ red balls, you know with 100% certainty that they've underestimated the real number of red balls (could be more left in the bag, but they're ALREADY wrong).
Most studies suggest real infection fatality rates between 0.5%-1%.

At the low end (0.5%) this implies 25,556,400 people caught covid.

At the high end (1%), 12,778,200 people caught it.

But only 4,487,339 people tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK. We've missed most cases.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
28 May
Confession time: I used to be proud to be British.

Not in a "look at me, I'm BRITISH" sort of way (at least, I hope not!) but it felt like being part of a comfortable club.

Now? Not so much. And it's a really gut-wrenching sensation to have pride in your identity whittled away.
Brexit + Hostile Environment + Really Really Hostile Environment + endless post-Brexit antagonism = destruction of the UK's standing in the world.

Think back 9 years to London 2012. Hard to fathom just how far we've fallen since then. And yet things keep getting worse and worse.
Your mileage will vary for sure. This type of sentiment is so dependent on background, situation etc.

Yet it's hard to imagine many people look around the UK of 2021 and think "things have never been better than they are right now".

Only the narrow-minded racists are in clover.
Read 8 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
28 May
THREAD

- Official policy was to discharge COVID-19 patients back into care homes.
- Not all were tested first.
- Not all those who showed signs of covid in care were tested because of limits on tests.
- Testing of all discharged patients only came in on/after 15 April 2020.

1/n
From 2 April 2020 PDF about hospital discharge & admission of care home residents:

"Some of these patients may have COVID-19, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic."

"Negative tests are not required prior to transfers / admissions into the care home."

2/n
 web.archive.org/web/2020040805…
At the time (2 April 2020) there were very strict limits on the number of tests offered to any given care home that suspected a COVID-19 outbreak.

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
27 May
Matt Hancock (15 Apr 2020): "TODAY we can announce that EVERYBODY going from hospital into social care WILL be tested, will be isolated while the result of that test comes through, because that helps to protect people who are in social care."

Unequivocal!
Screenshot, in case the original goes away...
Video clip, in case the original goes away...
Read 6 tweets

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