Thread by @althecat

Here is a small fragment of what is coming in the model forecasts.

On June 15 after Europe is completely overwhelmed by elevated precipitable water some cold arctic air mounts a futile fightback.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1399747771725398027

I'd be interested in some computer modellers views of this. The experience of those of us with weather model powered interfaces in our hands have come to realise that a technology that was formerly fairly reliable in Europe isn't really coping.

I have a live example here in Bretagne which is about to play out in real time. This is what my phone says. Rain is coming in 8 hours time. Lowish probability and only lasts four hours.

But this is the view looking out my window.

It may be harmless and it may not rain on me. But I would bet dollars to donuts that the @apple weather smarts have no idea it’s there.

This satellite feed from @zoom_earth runs in 15 minute increments so this animation may now be about 25 minutes out of date.

That storm is almost certainly this one and its most probably about 50kms away at the most. And as you can see behind it is a broiling storm front.

Zooming out you can see this storm front runs from Monaco to Brest and there are significant areas of storm activity well behind the front. By morning this will be in Belgium.

Update: Was probably being a bit harsh on the models here. The weather app has updated following the storm flare up. It’s now due to arrive in an hour.

Just saw some lightning. I do like a good storm.

But seriously the weather is going a bit bonkers here. And by here I mean the entire North Western Hemisphere.