Thread by @magi_jay

I wrote about the rising crime rate for @johnastoehr. There are a lot of headlines out there about surging violence. Republicans are seizing on the issue.

So is crime actually on the rise? The truth is complicated, but there are a few things we *do* know
stoehr.substack.com/p/there-is-no-…

A few key points:
-Murders & aggravated assaults rose in 2020 & are likely rising in 2021. The exact % is unknown. Meanwhile, rapes and robberies are likely in decline.
-Violent crime is still much lower than the 1990’s.
-Crime rates fluctuate quite a bit from year to year.

Also, we saw this exact same thing in 2015. Crime rose. Everyone freaked out. Many blamed anti-racism protesters for causing police shyness (🙄). Then crime fell again. Eventually it was determined that primarily ~3 cities drove the increase in homicides. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…

So, when you see headlines about SURGING CRIME now, consider that we saw the exact same thing in 2015 ⬇️.

None of this is to say we shouldn’t be concerned by a rise in any kind of violent crime. But headlines are obscuring the complexities, as are conservatives. It could be that we’re seeing an actual rise in some kinds of crime. It could be normal variation. We just don't know yet.

There’s a lot more to talk about here, but, overall, liberals should be pro-active in this point: regardless of year-to-year fluctuations, the U.S. has a shameful homicide rate.

Why?

GUNS.

And who has a solution here?

Liberals. Not conservatives.

Anyway, there's more in the piece. Hope you consider giving it a read. stoehr.substack.com/p/there-is-no-…

I've already had one person say "Defund the Police" is definitely responsible. To this, I'll respond:
-Could be. Doubt it. But I'll keep an open mind. Either way, we don't have the data
-The limited data we do have indicate that crime was already rising in 2020 prior to "Defund"

Also, if you're going to posit a strong causal factor--which you really shouldn't do w/o evidence--you should at the very least try to explain why "Defund" would cause homicides to rise while rape & robbery declined. And take a gander at explaining between-city variation:

One point: we can discuss the efficacy of the slogan "Defund the Police." An entirely different matter is that conservatives & some in the media are using "Defund" as a stand-in for all racial justice protests & are stipulating these protests **caused** a rise in violent crime

Folks who say this have absolutely no evidence for the assertion. And they made the exact same claim in 2015/2016, which they called "The Ferguson Effect." The claim: Racial justice protests lead to police being too intimidated to do their jobs & therefore crime rises.

There wasn't evidence for this in 2015/2016 and there's not evidence for it now. And, say there WAS evidence (which there's not). That still wouldn't be the fault of racial justice protesters. Police are responsible for doing their own damn jobs, even in the face of criticism.

So, even if it were true that there was some kind of causal relationship here, still wouldn't be the fault of racial justice protesters. But there's not a causal effect that we can observe at this moment in time & anyone who says we can see it is literally just making stuff up.