Thread by @regina_bateson

Forget epidemiology. Apparently, Ontario's COVID response & re-opening plans are being decided via public opinion polls.

So, let's take a look at the polling, from the perspective of someone who does public opinion research.

Come along. It'll be wild.🧵

toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/how-pub…

1. Looking at these questions, the first thing that jumps to mind is, "false dilemma" (aka "false dichotomy"). This fallacy pits two options against each other, when the full range of choices is more complex.

For a quick refresher on "false dilemmas," see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dil….

2. The second phrase that comes to mind is, "push poll."

When we do survey research, we want to be careful not to bias the results by including inflammatory language or imbalanced information.

If questions included terms like "jeopardize" & listed potential harms (but not potential benefits) of re-opening schools, then we shouldn't be drawing substantive conclusions from this poll.

Much like Ford's recent open letter, the poll may have been part of an effort to sway public opinion, not judge it.

For tips on what NOT to do when writing survey questions see 👇, especially #1 and 2:

surveymonkey.com/mp/5-common-su…

3. Now let's talk about the sample & results quoted by @ColinDMello.

There are about 11.6 million adults in ON. Based on 2 million students, I'm guessing that about 4 million adults are parents of school-aged kids. Less than 200,000 more people work in ON schools.

So even if every respondent directly connected to schools wanted them to reopen, a majority could still say, "keep them closed, I want to go get drinks with my friends sooner."

Plus this is a sample of adults. Kids' voices are entirely missing.

4. Finally, a reflection:

Kids have a right to education. This right exists whether or not a majority of adults are impatient to go shopping.

Most democracies prevent majority from trampling rights of vulnerable minorities. Yet that's exactly what's set to happen in ON today.