There will undoubtedly be more cases because of the delta, but let's remember we are in an entirely different situation compared to even 3 months ago. One vaccine dose still provides protection. A 4th wave will look much less severe most notably because... 2/
...hospitalizations will be significantly less. I sound like a broken record on this, but the objective of restricting the community is to prevent overwhelming of hospitals. With hospitalizations being markedly reduced with vaccination.... 3/
...the threat of lockdown does NOT loom with rises in cases. In the post-vaccine era hospitals will do what they've always done: take care of people who fall ill, and the community continues to function around it. 4/
Vaccines have completely changed the face of the pandemic, including here in Ontario. Cases are now decoupling from hospitalization, and the virus has been "defanged". This is all thanks to vaccination. 5/
And to re-iterate what I said above (and at the same time creating a never ending programming loop that Alan Turing would laugh at)
Anecdotal observations from COVID in hosp: 1. Notable absence of LTC admissions (vaccines work!) 2. Not many community dwelling people >70y (vaccines work!) 3. No doubt that average age is younger 4. Younger people are almost all essential workers or their family members.
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5. Younger people admitted have a history of not just exposure but heavy, prolonged exposure. 6. Obesity and/or metabolic syndrome are common themes (including in younger pop'n) 7. A few older people with 1 dose vaccine. Most within 2w. Over 2w, seem not to be as sick
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8. Younger individuals do turn around faster, and less needing ICU 9. But those who need ICU are often there for a long time. 10. All have indoor exposure 11. Yet to see someone who went to HomeSense....
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With respect to COVID, many of us have been on about hospitalizations and death, and how the vaccines relate. This is very important because it takes us back to why we are doing all of this in the first place THREAD: 1/
At the present time, SARSCOV2 is spreading in a pandemic fashion all over the world. It's a respiratory virus, but that has significant differences than others (e.g. influenza etc.) my goal here is not to dwell on these differences 2/
As we saw in Northern Italy and NYC, the big problem with COVID and unchecked community spread, is that you get a massive expansion of cases and from those, a large number of hospitalizations all at the same time. 3/
There was a lot of concern over a video of a lineup at HomeSense last weekend. Truth be told, I think the risk of people lining up in a large building for a fleeting time with masks, is not risk-free, but it's low risk. @zchagla@BogochIsaac@DocDominik@MikeHaddadMD 1/
These "viral" videos are obviously visible and garner a reaction, but take attention away from the much higher risk and (much) less visible high risk settings where COVID is spreading (i.e. the essential workplace - household transmission chain). 2/
We should continue to focus efforts on risk mitigation, and not forget the tried and true infection prevention principles which work whether high or low risk setting...whether variant or not. 3/
I've been wanting to write this thread for a while. It has been inspired by hearing a common thought: why can't people just "listen"? If people just followed the rules, we wouldn't be in this mess. I think this is oversimplification of the problem with COVID: 1/
It is true, there are people who haven't been following guidelines (by definition that happened a LOT at Christmas/NYE in my region), but even before, we know transmission in private gatherings happens. 2/
These private gatherings are pictured to be big raucous parties, but in reality, even before lockdown, this is just people having dinner, watching TV, doing things we did before on a daily basis. These little ripples when added across the country make a big wave.. 3/
The South Asian community I am part of has a number of overlapping risk factors that increases the risk of both acquisition of COVID and also at risk for having a more severe outcome 1/
First many work in ESSENTIAL, public-facing jobs (including in health care) as well as crowded workplaces where it is difficult to physically distance (e.g. factories, food processing plants etc.) 2/
We are more likely to live in a multigenerational home (especially in the hotspots across Canada and the world), with an average of 6-8 people. This is a prime situation for amplification of a single infection brought in to the household. 3/