[Thread] The UN Monitoring Team's annual report for the 1988 sanctions committee on the Afghan Taliban is out. Some highlights: 1/n undocs.org/S/2021/486
On the Taliban's leadership: Mullah Yaqub is second in line after first deputy Siraj Haqqani to Taliban leader Akhundzada. 
On Taliban's cohesion: Independent operations and power wielded by Taliban field commanders has become a growing concern; Sadr Ibrahim and Zakir at times act more autonomously; overall though unity within the movement remains strong.
On Taliban leadership position on peace talks: Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada's position is not known, but Yaqub and Siraj Haqqani remain opposed to peace talks and favor a military solution.
On high violence: The year 2020 was the most violent year ever recorded by the United Nations in Afghanistan with 25K+ incidents.
On Taliban size: Current Taliban fighting force estimated to range from 58K to 100K with numbers fluctuating due to deployment on the battlefield and use of reserves.
On capability: Haqqani network remains the most combat-ready, a hub of cooperation with regional foreign fighters and primary liaison between the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Besides inroads in the south and east of the country, the Taliban have moved forces in the north of the country, with Taliban forces exerting more control over road networks in the north than at any other time since 2001.
Both Taliban and ANDSF have suffered high attrition but Taliban recruitment has been steady whereas Afghan security forces' has continued to decline.
On target killings: Taliban have targeted gov't officials, women, human rights activists, and journalists in targeted attacks; increased assassinations orchestrated by Haqqani network but also believed to have been favored by Mullah Yaqub.
On al-Qaeda: Taliban and al-Qaeda remain closely aligned and show no indication of breaking ties.
Al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri is assessed to be in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, and news of his death has not been confirmed. Al-Qaeda core members from North Africa and the Middle East remain in Afghanistan as well. AQIS strength might be up to 500 persons.
Al-Qaeda has a presence across 15 provinces; the core group has a unit called "Jabhat-al-Nasr" under one Sheikh Mehmood, and maintained contact with the Taliban.
ISIS-K continues to suffer losses and attrition with surviving cells forced to decentralize and acting autonomously; funds from ISIS core to ISIS-K have dried up.
ISIS-K leader Muhajir is a former Haqqani Network leader and according to one member state continues to cooperate with the Haqqani Network. But monitoring team has not been able to confirm this from other member states.
Some member states report tactical and commander-level collaboration between ISIS-K and Haqqani but other member states strongly deny such claims.
On foreign fighters: Monitoring team estimates 8000 to 10000 foreign fighters in Afghanistan with the majority affiliated with the Taliban and many support al-Qaeda.
Taliban's intelligence & military commissions issued directives on the handling of foreign fighters. Intelligence commission required a census+registration of foreign fighters, imposed restrictions; military commission barred battlefield leaders from bringing in foreign fighters.
Despite growing tensions, the Afghan Taliban and the TTP remain aligned as before.
ETIM/TIP has several hundred members in the north; the group has established a corridor to move fighters from Syria to Afghanistan; its leader Haji Furqan leads as many as 1000 foreign fighters including 400 of ETIM/TIP in Badakshan.
Monitoring team assesses that Taliban denial of foreign fighter presence and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan "in the face of conclusive evidence" can be a problem for the international community in conducting meaningful discussions with the Taliban on the issue. n/n
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