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Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
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3 Jun, 9 tweets, 5 min read
My latest: If you're confused about what's going in Israel right now, you're not alone. My latest is an explainer about Israel's potential post-Netanyahu government. Six essential insights about what just happened and what it means for Israel's future: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
First, it's important to understand that Netanyahu has *not* been replaced. There is a coalition attempting to oust him, but it must hold together long enough to pass a parliamentary vote. This isn't a done deal, and won't be until that happens.
tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Here's a quick explanation of why Israel hasn't been able to form a government to replace Netanyahu for two years and several elections, and what's changed in the last 24 hours: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
The proposed new Israeli government will have a right-wing frontman, with a bunch of centrists, leftists, and Arabs running the show behind the scenes. It's an impressive gambit by opposition leader Yair Lapid. It's also going to be ... pretty weird. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
For the first time in Israeli history, the new proposed government would contain an independent Arab party (an Islamist one, in fact). Its leader, Mansour Abbas, is poised to become the most powerful Arab politician in Israel's history. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Israel's most racist politicians were vehemently opposed to the inclusion of any Arab parties in the governing coalition, correctly understanding that Jewish-Arab collaboration in Israeli politics would make it much harder for the right to win elections. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Arab voter turnout in Israel has long lagged behind Jewish turnout. But if Arab politicians in the proposed new government deliver tangible gains to their constituents, it could boost that turnout and dramatically erode the right's electoral prospects. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
This isn't a left-wing government. But it would be a shift to the left. "It’s like replacing Trump with Liz Cheney, but if Cheney couldn’t pass anything w/o the assent of Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Ilhan Omar, and Mitt Romney, and if she'd later get replaced w/ Chuck Schumer."
Anyway, there's a lot more in here, including thoughts on how Biden might approach a new Israeli government on everything from Gaza to Iran. Give it a read. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…

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More from @Yair_Rosenberg

Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
3 Jun
Let's check in on the official Yair scoreboard...

LAPID⬆️
NETANYAHU⬇️
I regret to inform you that the world's worst Yair is at it again
I have definitive Rosenberg rankings and definitive Yair rankings, as you always want to keep track of the people whose actions you'll probably be blamed for at some point
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
2 Jun
As usual, the head of Israel's largest majority Arab party is more pro-two states than those in the West who claim to be the allies of his constituents. The one-state solution remains a Western fantasy in search of a Middle Eastern constituency.
We have years of polls showing pluralities of Israelis & Palestinians support two states, while a tiny percentage (when asked with details) support a *democratic* one-state. I don't think one-state is bad or "antisemitic." I just think it's a non-starter. pcpsr.org/en/node/823
There's absolutely nothing wrong with popularizing one-state ideas to people in Israel/Palestine and trying to build support for them. I personally think we should consider halfway models of confederation. But any solution must start with what people on the ground actually want.
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
2 Jun
They say Netanyahu is a divisive politician, but he did bring together some pretty unusual allies ... to kick him out of office. Pictured: Yair Lapid, secular leader of Israeli opposition, Naftali Bennett, settler party head, and Mansour Abbas, leader of Islamist Arab party Raam.
Just because Lapid got everyone's signatures on paper to replace Netanyahu doesn't mean it's a done deal. Bibi will pursue every possible pressure point right up until the new government is sworn in. But getting all those signatures on paper together is historic in its own right.
BREAKING: Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid announces that he has successfully formed a government to replace Netanyahu. Official statement:
Read 13 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
1 Jun
If Twitter's Trending Topics were honest
Read 7 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
30 May
Lapid has repeatedly sacrificed his own ambition to be prime minister, and offered the job to other candidates, for the sole purpose of getting Netanyahu out & resetting Israeli democracy. It's remarkable precisely because it's just not something you see in contemporary politics.
If you are wondering what on earth is going on right now in Israeli politics, what the plan is to replace Netanyahu, and what that replacement might look like, I covered it all for you in this explainer: yair.substack.com/p/what-you-sho…
As I've said, I will believe that Netanyahu is out the moment the replacement government is sworn in, and not a second before. Bibi still has days to derail this. But this is the closest he's come to losing power.
Read 7 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
27 May
"Media coverage of the lab-leak hypothesis was a debacle, and a major source of that failure was groupthink cultivated on Twitter," writes @jonathanchait. This is far from the only important story where this has been the case. We need to talk about that. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
@jonathanchait The problem is that once fashionable Twitter opinion coalesces around a consensus, it raises the costs for anyone to dissent. In many cases, writers will receive vituperative and sustained abuse for daring to question what's in vogue. This means that many just won't bother.
@jonathanchait Because most elite tastemakers and opinionmakers are on Twitter, its social pressures have the effect of forging false consensuses that don't actually reflect the real world, whether it's about the coronavirus, Trump's odds or winning, or Biden's primary strength.
Read 8 tweets

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