Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Jun 3, 2021 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Today's COVID vaccine update:

- Shots reported today: 411,460
- Total shots: 24,933,524
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 67.9%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 71.3% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 65.6
- Inventory: 8.7 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/
Detailed data on vaccination rates by age comes with a long lag. I construct my own estimates. Here's the latest:

- Those 60+: 88.9% have at least one dose and 12.3% have two
- 18-59: it's 63.6% and 6.3%
- Adults: 71.3% and 8.1%
In total, Canada is now up to 24.9 million shots given -- which is 88.6% of the total 28.1 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,161,060 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 2.4 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 411,460 shots given compares to an average of 369,459/day over the past week and 357,964/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 269,567
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Aug 28
Canada's pace of vaccinations remains high, though shots are shifting towards more second doses. Currently, one in three shots is a second dose. Great to see!

This will slow the pace of % of pop with a first dose, which we've also gradually seen.
Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses at Canada's current pace we reach 75% by June 24. We reach enough for 75% of those age 12+ by .

Gray lines are past projections.
What about two doses? Here's when we'll have enough doses to reach different points:

- 75% of age 12+ w/ 1+ dose and 20% w/ 2: June 20
- 75% of 12+ w/ 2 doses: August 9
Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~19-39%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…
Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 128 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NL at 61

- Highest share of delivered doses used: NB with 94%
- Lowest: NU with 64%
A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 68% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: BC at 58% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 60%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 44%
Looking forward, here's time to reach 75% of people age 12+ w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.

- QC fastest at 4 days.
- SK slowest at 18 days.
How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 32nd
Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 0.97 per day. The US rises by 0.37 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 40 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 25 days.
The gap in total doses per 100 with the US is closing fast. So too will the gap in second shots!

Today is the first day our average pace of increasing the number of second doses exceeded the US. Watch these two lines cross very very soon.
Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!
Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

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More from @trevortombe

May 21
Today's data: inflation rate falls to 2.7% in April. Would have fallen more, but gasoline pushed the rate up. Shelter remains largest contributor, but pace of increase is falling.

#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
The key Bank of Canada core measures of inflation have also remained within the target range -- lower than 2% -- over the past 3 months. This is what the bank is looking forward before lowering rates. Image
Here are the contributors to the drop. Most items down, but energy prices offset some of that.

This accounts for *changes* in the CPI annual rate of increase. Alternatively, had energy prices remained flat yoy, then CPI growth would have been 2.4% in April. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 20
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.



#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.

Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm. Image
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 16
Today's data: inflation!! 📈 Consumer prices were 3.4% higher in December than one year earlier. That's up from 3.1% in November.

I'll explore some of what's going on. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter. Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 21, 2023
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.

I'll unpack some more patterns here 🧵 #cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years. Image
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 11, 2023
Some Alberta Pension Plan proponents are concerned about Albertans paying more in contributions than they receive in benefits. Is this "overcontribution" legitimate? If so, does it imply the CPP is unfair? Would an APP solve it?

Allow me to explain. 🧵🤓 #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The Government of Alberta regularly cites $60 billion in excess contributions over what has been received in benefits. The report commissioned by the government includes this figure. Red is Alberta. Positive means contributions > benefits. 👇 Image
The data are accurate. You don't even need an actuary. Statistics Canada reports this annually. Total contributions from 1966-2021 amount to approximately $60 billion. Adjusting for inflation provides a clearer perspective. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 4, 2023
To better understand this claim, consider an equally true but misleading statement: eliminating the GST would "reduce inflation by 61%"! 😲

Does that mean the GST is inflationary? What about the carbon tax?

I'll try to clarify things 🧵 🤓 #cdnecon #cdnpoli
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: )www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
So, eliminating the GST would drop the CPI by 2.3%. Since the latest inflation reading is 3.8%, that would leave us at 1.5% (assuming nothing else changed). And 1.5% is 61% lower than 3.8%.

Simple. But not helpful or informative.
Read 10 tweets

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