Based on my estimates Protector Forsikring has now delviered a +30 % equity return so far in 2021 compared with less than 20 % for the overall market.
Since 2014 when Dag Marius took over Protector have delivered a 250 % equity return or around 20 % annual return on equirty
this compares to around 10 % for the Norwegian/Scandinavian index
At the same time they have delivered signifcant returns on fixed income far ahead of the market with lower risk and volatility.
Rising interest rates will be a big benefit for Protector as they have low duration in their bond portfolio and a lot of bonds is with floating rates.
This is not a 1 year track rekord but a 7 year track record and counting now. We think Dag Marius will keep outperforming in the future. With superior growth and investments income why is Protector still trading with a 50 % discount to peers?
We are willing to bet our money on Dag Marius and the rest of the Protector team vimeo.com/522383005
If anyone else know another company trading at a single digit P/E with a +10 year track record of compounding shareholder at a +25 % CAGR pleese DM or email me :)
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The current setup for XL Media Plc looks highly compelling in my mind.
The company trades around its net cash position at the current share price:
There has been a lot of fears that the company will try to use the cash to invest in the business or do more M&A etc. etc. Here is why i think that fear are no accurate and that a total sale of the company is the most likely outcome within the next 12 months.
First its important to understand the "history" of XLM. It have been one of the worst run Affiliate companies, there has been made terrible M&A deals etc. it was former an Israeli company, then a UK and now basically a US company. The company even stated clearly in the sales amount that their is no plan for more M&A.
My point is. There is nothing here to "build upon". There is no culture, no strategy, no future as a stand-alone.
Then its important to understand the shareholder structure and sas Premier Investment sits on the board and is it for shareholder value:
It is also worth remembering what job the current CEO is in it for. After the company went through a disaster again in 2022 and had to replace CEO the current CEO David King was hired. Here is what was referenced to when they hired him:
To me this clearly speaks that he was not hired to "rebuild XLM". He was hired to cut cost, optimse the business and sell it. The first step was the sale of the european assets in march 2024.
Received some questions around our Catella position as some people saw it was reduced from 4,0 to 3,3 million shares on holdings. We normally wont comment on our trading/positions but investors should be aware holdings seldom is accurate for L/S funds as ours as ….
… our prime brokerage (SEB) constantly takes assets in and out of collateral positions as security for our shorts. In the concrete case of catella we did not sell a single share in december and still hold 4.000.000 shares. SEB just took 700.000 as collateral and those…
… moved them out of our custodian account, and into their collateral account. We still have the same P&L exposure.
While we wont comment on future trading just remember you cant rely on Holdings in the cases
Do i have someone in my twitter feed with an understanding of the UK/EU AG/Seed space?
We have been researching Origin Enterprises (full disclouse: we hold a small/medium sized position).
While our initial research indicates a favorable risk/reward opportunity, we do have some questions we have a hard time answering ourselves
Our base case in summary:
1) Origin operates within the ag/seed/crop protection space. While earnings are volatile they are tied to weather and farm sentiment (mostly crop prises) and not the general economy
We have written a piece around the current status of the Affiliate industry and why we are bullish on Gaming Innovation Group symmetry.dk/wp-content/upl…
please read disclaimer in the end
We think the industry have structually changed for the better with more stable, diversified revenue streams that should end up demanding higher multiples of earnings.
We think BETCO and GiG are the best stocks in the sector:
We are long GiG for several reasons. One of the main points is the impressive leadership Jonas Warrer has in GiG Media after becoming CEO in the end of 2019
Yesterday GiG reported the Q1 2022. We are really impressed with what the team are doing there and have increased our position significantly post the report. Here is to why:
GiG have ongoing monentum reaching ATH revenue, EBITDA and EBIT
They will consolidate SportnCo from 1/4 and have already secured deals together and have 40% of pipeline as combined deals.
They also icnreased their cost synergies from 5-6 EUR to 8 millioner EUR. Its significant savings for a 160 million EUR market cap.
GiG alone is licensed in 14 jurisdictions. 12 month from now the combined company will be licensend in 35 jurisdictions creating a lot of synergies and contract options.