Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Hourly earnings growth in leisure and hospitality (nonsupervisory) remained high in May, but came back down to earth a bit (this chart shows three-month change, but one-month slowdown even more significant).
But note that hourly pay in leisure and hospitality is now running above its pre-Covid trend. Wouldn't make too much of one month of data, but if that continues, it's notable.
(More on wages from me and @jeannasmialek in today's print edition: nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…)
The official unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in May. Adjusting for misclassification and labor force exits (roughly what the Fed has recently been discussing lately), unemployment was 8.7%, down just a tick from April.
Labor force participation was down slightly overall last month, and flat for prime-age (25-54) workers. That's pretty disappointing given the hole we're in
Notably, participation among prime-age women actually ticked down last month. Monthly data bounce around, so wouldn't read too much into that, but the bigger picture is clear: Women left the labor force in greater numbers during the pandemic and have made little recent progress.
Although if we look at employment (rather than participation) and at all adults (not just prime age), women have caught up to men and both now face the same jobs deficit.
Different story by race. Black and Hispanic workers still face a larger jobs deficit than white and Asian workers.
In my story yesterday, I highlighted (at @ConstanceHunter's suggestion) involuntary part-time workers as a sign of labor supply. By that measure, not much sign of a labor shortage: "part-time for economic reasons" basically flat last month. nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
This is interesting: Unemployed people were roughly as likely to leave the labor force last month as to find jobs.
Meanwhile, most people who got jobs last month came from outside the labor force -- though that share is still below its prepandemic level.
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CBO is out with its final cost estimate of the tax-and-spending bill passed by the House.
- Revenue ⬇️ by $3.7 trillion over 10 years
- Spending ⬇️ by $1.3 trillion
- Debt ⬆️ by $2.4 trillion over 10 years
- Uninsured pop. ⬆️ by 10.9 million in 2034
Full analysis: cbo.gov/publication/61…
The spending cuts mostly come from Medicaid ($344 billion over 10 years), food stamps and related programs ($295 billion) and the Affordable Care Act ($132 billion).
Note that these estimates don't take into account the macroeconomic impacts of the policy changes (it is not "dynamic" in wonk parlance). So to the extent tax/spending cuts affect economic growth, that will also affect revenues. CBO is working on an analysis that estimates these effects.
So this was an interesting finding from @NateSilver538, but one I found odd because @BLS_gov publishes CPI for regions (and for some metro areas) but not for states. So I dug into it a bit, and there's less here than meets the eye.
Nate's data is coming from this tracker from the @JECRepublicans. They don't have a state-level inflation estimate either, though. They just use BLS's estimate of regional inflation and apply it to an estimate of household spending when Biden took office. jec.senate.gov/public/index.c…
You can see this if you hover over their map (or download their data). States in the same region all have the same cumulative rates of inflation. But they differ in the amount of inflation experienced in dollar terms because some states have higher avg household incomes.
I hate that @ellawinthrop is leaving us, but I'm so glad I got to work with her on her last piece for @nytimesbusiness. She's the best, most collaborative, most creative visual journalist I've ever worked with. A thread with a few of my favorite Ben-and-Ella collabs:
Good news on inflation! U.S. consumer prices FELL 0.1 percent in June, and were up just 3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, stripping out volatile food and fuel, were up 0.1 percent from May and 3.3 percent from last June. Data: …Live coverage: bls.gov/news.release/c… nytimes.com/live/2024/07/1…
This is the second straight month where there has been effectively no inflation on a month-to-month basis. Prices were flat in May, and down in June.
If you take a longer view here: At 3% year-over-year, inflation is no longer outside historical norms (though it is still higher than immediately prepandemic). And over the past three months, rents have risen at an annual rate of ***just 1.1%.***
Job openings ticked up in May (but only because April was revised down). Layoffs edged up. Quits basically flat. All consistent with a gradually slowing, but not collapsing, job market. #JOLTS
Full data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.1 million job openings on the last day of May. That's up from 7.9 million in April, revised down from the 8.1m originally reported.
Larger story here is that openings are clearly falling quickly, even if they're still high in absolute terms. #JOLTS
There were 1.2 job openings for every unemployed worker in May. That's more or less where things stood immediately before the pandemic (when the labor market was widely viewed as strong but not overheated).
The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)
This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.
For all the predictions of a recession, G.D.P. growth actually *accelerated* in 2023, and topped the prepandemic average growth rate as well.