Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Hourly earnings growth in leisure and hospitality (nonsupervisory) remained high in May, but came back down to earth a bit (this chart shows three-month change, but one-month slowdown even more significant).
But note that hourly pay in leisure and hospitality is now running above its pre-Covid trend. Wouldn't make too much of one month of data, but if that continues, it's notable.
(More on wages from me and @jeannasmialek in today's print edition: nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…)
The official unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in May. Adjusting for misclassification and labor force exits (roughly what the Fed has recently been discussing lately), unemployment was 8.7%, down just a tick from April.
Labor force participation was down slightly overall last month, and flat for prime-age (25-54) workers. That's pretty disappointing given the hole we're in
Notably, participation among prime-age women actually ticked down last month. Monthly data bounce around, so wouldn't read too much into that, but the bigger picture is clear: Women left the labor force in greater numbers during the pandemic and have made little recent progress.
Although if we look at employment (rather than participation) and at all adults (not just prime age), women have caught up to men and both now face the same jobs deficit.
Different story by race. Black and Hispanic workers still face a larger jobs deficit than white and Asian workers.
In my story yesterday, I highlighted (at @ConstanceHunter's suggestion) involuntary part-time workers as a sign of labor supply. By that measure, not much sign of a labor shortage: "part-time for economic reasons" basically flat last month. nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
This is interesting: Unemployed people were roughly as likely to leave the labor force last month as to find jobs.
Meanwhile, most people who got jobs last month came from outside the labor force -- though that share is still below its prepandemic level.
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Good news on inflation! U.S. consumer prices FELL 0.1 percent in June, and were up just 3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, stripping out volatile food and fuel, were up 0.1 percent from May and 3.3 percent from last June. Data: …Live coverage: bls.gov/news.release/c… nytimes.com/live/2024/07/1…
This is the second straight month where there has been effectively no inflation on a month-to-month basis. Prices were flat in May, and down in June.
If you take a longer view here: At 3% year-over-year, inflation is no longer outside historical norms (though it is still higher than immediately prepandemic). And over the past three months, rents have risen at an annual rate of ***just 1.1%.***
Job openings ticked up in May (but only because April was revised down). Layoffs edged up. Quits basically flat. All consistent with a gradually slowing, but not collapsing, job market. #JOLTS
Full data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.1 million job openings on the last day of May. That's up from 7.9 million in April, revised down from the 8.1m originally reported.
Larger story here is that openings are clearly falling quickly, even if they're still high in absolute terms. #JOLTS
There were 1.2 job openings for every unemployed worker in May. That's more or less where things stood immediately before the pandemic (when the labor market was widely viewed as strong but not overheated).
The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)
This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.
For all the predictions of a recession, G.D.P. growth actually *accelerated* in 2023, and topped the prepandemic average growth rate as well.
Job openings, quits and layoffs all edged down slightly in November. Consistent with a gradually cooling labor market, but definitely no sign things are falling off a cliff. #JOLTS
Data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.8 million job openings on the last day of November. That's down a touch from October, but only because October was revised up. Big picture: Openings are trending down (and quite quickly, at that), but are still high by historical standards. #JOLTS
The number of job openings per unemployed worker actually ticked up in November (because unemployment fell), but ignore the noise. The labor market is becoming more balanced, though the ratio is (again) high relative to the prepandemic period.
The big increase in unemployment is mostly for "good" reasons: More people working, but also more people *looking* for work. Labor force grew by 736,000. Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points.