Thread by @KaiHeron

Climate chaos rarely strikes directly. Its effects are elliptical. They ripple across capital's tentacular global relations, inflecting and exacerbating non-climatic social and ecological crises and insecurities. Here's an example:

Food prices have been steadily climbing for months. Yesterday the FT reported a surge of 40% globally. Predictably, some of the most food insecure regions have been hit hardest: a 23% increase in Nigeria, 200% in Sudan, 400% in Lebanon. Why? ft.com/content/8b5f4b…

There are several reasons but one of the most important is that that Brazil is presently suffering its worst drought in 91 years. Water shortages have decimated the country's soy, corn, sugar and coffee harvests and endangered livestock. agriculture.com/markets/newswi…

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soy and its second largest exporter of corn (behind the US). These are essential crops. They’re consumed directly by humans but around 75% of all soy produced is used as animal feed. Corn is used in everything from animal feed to biofuels

The significance of these crops to global food systems means that when their price increases millions are at risk of descending into (or further into) food insecurity. Right now soy is at an 8-year high. In May, corn jumped 142% on the previous year. marketwatch.com/story/soybean-…

This is why the FAO’s chief economist is cited in the FT saying that “everyone has to pray that the weather in the US is going to be good.” If the US — another major soy and corn exporter — suffers a drought similar to Brazil's, prices will soar even higher.

The situation isn’t looking good. Already this year farmers from Canada to California have experienced droughts and the US’ soy growing states have been been hit hard. So guess what? The price of soy is rising. agriculture.com/news/three-big…

As the climate crisis escalates, it’s not hard to imagine droughts hitting Brazil and the US simultaneously, devastating corn and soy yields, and sending food prices spiralling upwards.

Recall that the Arab Spring was in part initiated by rising food prices – by a crisis in labour's reproduction within the circuits of capital – to get a sense of where this can go.

That’s one thread we can pull on. One series of tentacular relations. There are others. One is that the drought has reduced Brazil’s hydropower capacity to such an extent that the country is importing natural gas to cover the deficit. oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…

That’s more carbon produced in transnational shipping and logistics, more GHGs burned, more global heating, more droughts, more food insecurity. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is trying to create a favourable regulative environment for the fossil fuel industry. rigzone.com/news/wire/braz…

Another thread is that this drought has been worsened by the very process that made Brazil one of the world’s largest producers of corn and soy in the first place: aggressive deforestation and the forceful removal of Indigenous peoples and wildlife.

Rainforests *create* precipitation. Rainforest loss means less rain, means lower crop yields, means a crisis in labour’s reproduction, a crisis in profitability for capital, soaring food insecurity, potential social upheavals, and so on. Elliptical.
nature.com/articles/s4146…