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Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
@aedwardslevy
Jun 4, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Aug 8, 2023
New from us:

Americans’ discontent with the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade remains as potent as a year ago, with record-high share saying they’re likely to take a candidate’s position on abortion into consideration when voting.

cnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…
There's a lot in the piece, but I do just want to pull out this slightly wonky crosstab on "cross-pressured" voters, which demonstrates nicely why any attempt to measure an issue's electoral impact is so complicated.

https://t.co/9l3EQS9e2Wcnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…
Image
Anyways, this is one of those keep-several-things-in-mind stories:

-Econ issues still dominate
-Salience of abortion has risen, particularly on left
-Electoral effects depend on if issue matters to swing/inconsistent voters
-In close races, even small effects can be crucial
Read 6 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
oh, wow, nearly half of registered voters say they're not satisfied with the two major presidential candidates and want other choices!

also, did I mention it is the year 2008 and the candidates are John McCain and Barack Obama
same story in May 2000 with Bush/Gore
and Carter/Reagan in 1980
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
May 23, 2023
General polling rule of thumb: the degree to which public opinion on an issue is responsive to framing tweaks tells you a lot about how stable/deeply held those opinions are.
(Obviously, this is one of the high variance cases. A good counter example: there have been a ton of polls asking about striking down Roe in various ways that all produce basically similar results to the effect of its being highly unpopular.)
(Another counter example: you can ask the public any number of ways, and cutting Social Security is still not going to be popular.)
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 3, 2023
From our new poll: "Sixty percent of Americans approve of the indictment of former President Donald Trump...About three-quarters of Americans say politics played at least some role in the decision to indict Trump."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
"A scant 10% overall see Trump as blameless regarding payments made to Daniels...About 4 in 10 say he acted illegally (37%), 33% unethically but not illegally, and another 20% say they aren’t sure."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
"About three in 10 say the decision strengthens US democracy (31%) and an identical share say it weakens democracy (31%). Roughly a quarter say it has no effect on democracy (23%) and 15% are unsure."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
inbox: national association of republican crossword constructors endorses ASA (3) hutchinson

(this is, should it need to be said, a joke about crossword fill)
help
campaign consultant who only speaks in palindromes, unveiling new slogan: "Asa ran AR. Asa!"
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
i can't be the first person to make this joke but it would be so great if an orchestra hall rolled out a "high wind advisory" right before every piccolo solo
tbh it's eminently possibly that this is also not the first time I have made this joke
and now I'm stuck trying to find if there are any symphonies with piccolo solos
Read 5 tweets

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