One thing that's probably worth mentioning as impeachment polling starts to come out: Until we have a better sense of factors behind 2020 election polling error, can't discount that some of the same factors are affecting non-election political surveys.
To the extent there was a likely-voter-model problem, that's not a factor. But differential non-response very well could be.
Reasonable hypothesis that national impeachment polling might understate opposition by up to 3-4 points.
Compared to elections (where slim margins can be crucial), something like 39% opposition vs. 42% opposition isn't as meaningfully different.
But it's probably a good reminder that all these numbers are, by definition, estimates.
Sort of an interesting crosstab: how likely Dem voters think it is that GOP will work with Biden vs. whether they think Biden should try to work with GOP. Even those who think he should compromise are mostly bearish it will be reciprocated.
One scenario I've worried about: With Trump's messaging so inconsistent, many Trump voters focused on the more pro-restriction things he said, which aligned with their own beliefs. (See this from July.)
With a Dem president advocating for preventative measures, is there any possibility of some backlash effect? Probably depends to some extent on who the loudest GOP voices are, and what message they're putting forward.
I don't have a ton to add to the polling discussion at the moment -- want to get a lot more information before I start theorizing in detail about what happened, or what that means for polling in the future.
Here's an initial writeup, to which I'll add a few personal thoughts:
-Yes, they're happening this year
-A lot of the work was done prior to Election Day
-Final results not foolproof, but provide useful data about the electorate
-Don't try to use early results to guess who's going to win
-Especially this year
I get into this more in the story, but: there are a lot of reasons to use caution when analyzing top-issue polls. One thing I DO think they can be useful for is gauging which campaign messages are resonating or not.
We've been asking this question biennially since 2014. A few things that stand out to me this year:
-Immigration is WAY down in salience from 2018
-Trump's messaging on crime is just not resonating, even with his supporters
(I really dislike chatty first-person-plural ledes that make casual, sweeping assumptions about one's readership)
Also interesting: "It might seem like paying close attention to this year’s Presidential election would lead to higher levels of stress, but paying close attention to the race is actually correlated with lower levels of perceived stress."
New HuffPost/YouGov poll: Most voters think social media platforms have a responsibility to prevent users from spreading conspiracy theories/false information. Big partisan gap, but also an age divide.
Voters are pretty divided on whether it's a good or bad thing for elected officials to be on social media, but they're more likely to think Trump's tweets hurt than help him. huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac…
I realize this is beating a dead horse, but...SSRS, CNN's pollster, also conducts some of their polling online (their post-debate poll was phone, but includes call-backs of voters originally reached through SSRS's panel). "Online" is not the problem here!
I realize this seems nitpicky, but I think it runs the risk of being genuinely confusing as the industry moves toward different modes. Gallup is doing online polling. Pew is doing online polling. AP is doing online polling. Etc.
Twitter polls are not representative of what people thought of the debate and focus groups are not representative of what people thought of the debate -- I know you all know this, but I just realized I'm not going to get to say this again for ages.
no worries, I can still be a condescending scold about the SotU
While I'm at it: snap polls are a more-or-less reasonable gauge of who watched the debate, but "debate watchers" is not the same sample universe as "the electorate."
Because this is a good use of time on Saturday night, I want to just pull out this 2016 post-mortem from the pollsters' professional org (full disclosure, I'm a member), which examines in depth the possibility for a shy Trump vote.
In a poll taken Friday-Sunday:
-86% of Americans were trying to stay home
-78% called state stay-at-home orders right decision
-65% would stay home regardless of restrictions
-60% more worried about states reopening too quickly than too slowly
Methodology listed from 5WPR is "a survey via phone of 737 American beer drinkers over the age of 21 on February 25 & 26, 2020."
Meanwhile, YouGov sees negative "buzz" for Corona (which could include...stories like that CNN one!) and a dip in "purchase intent," but notes "the summer-y beverage...does see substantial seasonal fluctuation"