As of today 20 states have announced plans to opt out of all enhanced federal UI programs and 5 more have announced they will opt out of the $300+ weekly benefit supplement only. Here they are by April 2021 unemployment rate: 
Observations:
1. All R governors except of VT, MA opted out of $300+ supplement.
2. No D governors have (->red/blue coloring).
3. Most states opting out of all programs (14/20) had April UR below 4.5%. If ARP used state-level triggers, these states would have been off early.
1. All R governors except of VT, MA opted out of $300+ supplement.
2. No D governors have (->red/blue coloring).
3. Most states opting out of all programs (14/20) had April UR below 4.5%. If ARP used state-level triggers, these states would have been off early.
4. Why do states with R governors have lower unemployment? Not:
a. Opt-out itself. April is before any opt-out of federal UI programs was even announced.
b. Pre-pandemic differences in unemployment rate. Next chart shows change in unemployment rate from Feb-2020 to Apr-2021:
a. Opt-out itself. April is before any opt-out of federal UI programs was even announced.
b. Pre-pandemic differences in unemployment rate. Next chart shows change in unemployment rate from Feb-2020 to Apr-2021:
Other possibilities:
a. Other policy differences.
b. Different risk aversion to COVID. Although next chart shows similar LFPR change in these states.
c. ??
a. Other policy differences.
b. Different risk aversion to COVID. Although next chart shows similar LFPR change in these states.
c. ??
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