Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* The Good: Record-lows for infection rate, case rate, & positivity rate. Also, hospitalizations & deaths are down after a brief post-Easter spike. Could we be at herd immunity?

*The Bad: Vaccinations are nearly at record-lows.

1/

Monthly Overview

* Cases: 111/day in May, lowest in the past yr apart from the 106/day in March
* Positivity: 6.0%, lowest in the past yr except the 4.6% in March
* Deaths: 56, lowest in the past yr except 50 in Apr
* Vax: 1523/day, the lowest on record (Feb has fewer days)

2/

Case Rate

We're down to 4.8 per 100k ppl.

And we've been under 10 per 100k for 4wks now.

This is the first time we've had sustained success. Not just progress, but actual success over time.

3/

Even the case rate for non-vax'd ppl has fallen below 10 per 100k for the first time.

For context, the only time the overall case rate dipped below 10 per 100k in the past year was the snow wk in Feb.

In short, this is the safest it's been in over a year.

4/

Now, we know that case data can be inaccurate as a result of low testing. And testing is down from already low levels.

But cases have been dropping faster than testing for 3wks now.

And so the positivity rate has dropped from 6.6% down to an incredible 3.7% in that time.

5/

Hospitalizations are down, too, after a post-Easter spike.

Same with deaths, although the post-Easter effect was delayed since deaths are a lagging indicator (infection to hospitalization to death takes about 4wks).

6/

All of this is just incredible and deserves a big Ric Flair "Wooo!"

7/

Now, the obvious question is this:

We're nowhere near "herd immunity." Only 39% of the local population is vaccinated. And just 10.5% have been infected.

So why are cases dropping so rapidly?

I think the answer to this comes from @youyanggu's models. Let me explain.

8/

As I've said for months, @youyanggu's models have consistently been the most accurate, by far.

And he estimated that actual infections in Shelby County were about 3x higher than reported. So, over 30% have immunity from infection.

If so, we may have reached herd immunity.

9/

That's the most plausible explanation to me.

The infection rate rose from mid-Mar to early-Apr, to a peak of 1.1, but has dropped steadily since then.

And the drop has been the most dramatic in May, which is when total immunity, using @youyanggu's estimates, reached 65%.

10/

Caveat: Yes, I know, some people who were infected have also been vaccinated. So we have to subtract the overlap to get the true level of community immunity. But we don't have that data. Or at least I don't. So I'm just going to use the rough numbers. Either way, we're there.

8/

We're now at 71% total immunity (minus the overlap).

And the result is that we are crushing covid. As a result, we are largely getting our lives back.

A word of caution, though...

9/

A word of caution:

According to @_stah, the new variants have a higher reproduction number, which means the threshold for herd immunity is higher.

He says we'll need to get to about 80%. So we've still got work to do on the vaccination front.

https://twitter.com/_stah/status/1400799242445328387

10/

And that's a real problem right now.

We've essentially vaccinated everyone who wants to be vaccinated.

We saw a brief spike after vax was approved for 12-15 year-olds, but then demand fell off a cliff.

(I can't, however, explain the huge spike in today's vax data.)

11/

If we're going to stay safe from the variants, we're going to need to vaccinate at least another 150k ppl.

Given that we've only vax'd 366k ppl so far, it's going to be hard to get another 150k.

12/

The next 150k will be harder to get than the first 366k. Bc they're not as eager. They need more personal contact. They need people they trust to sit down with them, to talk with them, to answer their questions and address their concerns.

But I'm afraid this won't happen.

13/

And let's not forget that our children are still not eligible for vaccination.

This is the biggest impediment to getting things back to "normal."

14/

Speaking of children, @TennesseeStand has teamed up with a dozen other local orgs to form the Moral Budget Coalition.

As @RevDrBarber reminds us constantly, budgets are moral documents that speak to our values.

Ask our leaders for a moral budget:
bit.ly/moralbudget901

15/

I'm going to end there.

The good news: Our covid data is looking better than it has at any point in the pandemic. And we may have reached the herd immunity threshold.

The bad news: We need more immunity to fight the variants, but vaccination efforts have stalled.

16/16