I'm sitting at my in-law's pool and kind of bored. I'm trying to think of some hot take but reality is most of my takes rn are pretty boring.

Best FI moves rn are defensive carry. Trying to hit a HR in here (in just about any asset class) will prob get you killed.
A good investor knows when it is time to just be boring. Now is one of those times.

It's easier said than done though.
BTW when I say be defensive and don't make big moves, I consider going to cash a big move. Who knows how long this bubbly environment lasts? If you go to cash the FOMO just gets stronger every day the mkt doesn't go down.
If you do go to cash, you need a very defined thesis and time horizon. "Mkt is too expensive" as a thesis is a disaster waiting to happen.

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More from @tdgraff

12 Jan
We don't know who the Trump companies owe money to exactly, but a few things to consider.

1) There's reporting that Trump owes DB $300mm. Is that secured by something of value? If so, DB probably doesn't have much to lose.

(thread)
2) Other lenders with weak (or no) collateral will be taking more risk. A lender suddenly refusing to roll over debts typically results in bankruptcy.
3) Bankruptcy isn't always the worst thing for a lender. It may very well be that some of Trump's hotels would be worth MORE if under different ownership. Waiting may cause the property value to erode. Seizing the property now may be in the lenders best interest.
Read 7 tweets

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