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Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
@deepakshenoy
Jun 7, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Be careful if you hear tips asking you to buy DHFL. The nclt has approved the resolution plan, where I believe the plan is for the shares to be written off to zero. Piramal will then get new shares. Today's shares will have zero value, beware.
Please read: capitalmind.in/2020/12/a-dire…
Meanwhile, today, 21 lakh shares traded at upper circuit. This will do good as a coin - DHFLCOIN - and go to the moon. Image
Adding to this again: DHFL SHARE WILL GO TO ZERO.

Please do not buy this. The resolution plan states that the company's entire share capital (all current shares) will be cancelled. This will happen soon. Means the shares being traded now are a ticking time bomb.
Official confirmation from DHFL: Shares will be delisted. Image
Full letter: Image
It's official once more. bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… Image

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More from @deepakshenoy

Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Apr 29
Personal loans by banks (marketshare):
- Housing loans still dominate (52%)
- Education has halved marketshare (now 2.4%)
- Vehicle loans at 10%
- Unsecured personal loans rises to 29% marketshare
- Credit card usage is rising Image
We now have the split by gender (male/female) and that's throwing some interesting changes in the last decade.

Women are now 40% of all education loans from banks. This is excellent news. Image
But sadly, most of even this growth is not due to a larger number of women taking education loans. It's that the loans are much more. From 2.2 lakh per account to 6.3 lakh, though the number of accounts is the same (8 lakh) after a big dip during covid. Image
Read 9 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Mar 31
India's current account deficit is only $11 bn in the Oct-Dec quarter. For FY2024-25 it's only $37 billion. This is good; the rupee fell, but the problem was FPI flows and speculatory rupee trade, not fundamental trade flows.

Thread: 🧵 Image
Note that in the previous quarter, the deficit was $16 bn. It was announced as $11bn and has now been revised UPWARDS by $5bn. So these figures can be revised.

rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Pre…
We import a lot of gold. Last quarter too, we imported $19bn worth, but that is hardly a "current account item" in my book. It's a financial import. So if we look at the deficit net of gold, we have a $8bn surplus! Image
Read 9 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Mar 30
Interesting move in the Vodafone Idea game - the government will convert about 37,000 cr. of debt into equity - buying about 3700 cr. of shares at Rs. 10 each.

Since its your money as a taxpayer, you will rightfully ask, but hello, aren't the shares at Rs. 6.80 in the market? Image
Well, of course, but there is a rule that you cannot issue shares below "par" so we have to cough up 50% more.

Does this help Vodafone idea? There is a song, "Doobne waale ko tinke ka sahaara hi bahut" (To a drowning man, even a twig is a saviour". This song has no idea about drowning men, but Idea now has a twig.
It's a twig. Vodafone Idea owes the government a ludicrous 210,000 cr. Of which it will only reduce the debt by 37,000 cr. now.

And there is no fresh money coming in. So everyone is getting diluted just like that. Image
Read 10 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Feb 26
Gold bonds wise - the worry isn't that the government didnt hedge the gold, the worry really is that they didn't do enough of it to change any imports at all. In fact they raised the duty on gold, making gold even more expensive!
The idea of the SGB was that if you only cared about it as a financial asset, then you could just buy an SGB. The lower interest of 2.5% (versus typical bond issues of 8%+) would help the government raise funds at lower interest and hopefully, reduce imports.
Gold imports in USD terms is about $50bn a year. It was $34bn in FY 2015. So about 50% up in 10 years, which isn't big at all in terms of value, less than 5% a year in dollar terms but meaningful in rupee terms with both duty and USDINR going up.
Read 7 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Feb 1
Budget2025: Thread starts here.

Expect bad attempts at jokes. Do not expect tax cuts. I hope there isn't too much poetry, though I'll quote cartoon movies liberally.
India's highest tax rates of the past, and it's come down to 39% (!) a couple years back. Image
Please, this is what I think is good commentary. Just saying, in case you're here because you think it's informative

Read 73 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Nov 29, 2024
Indian GDP for Sep 2024 comes in at a low 5.4% and even nominal growth is now 8%. Image
Terrible for manufacturing at just 2% real growth. Agri did decently, but everything else also saw declining growth: Image
Exports were down marginally, but imports even more. And private consumption - the driver of the economy - was at a subdued 6%

Govt expenditure kinda helped keep things up. Image
Read 10 tweets

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