Thread by @cfishman

What's the significance of Jeff Bezos going to space, on his own Blue Origin rocket, with his brother Mark?

Flight scheduled for Tue, July 20 — anniversary of the first Moon landing. Not a coincidence.

Bezos is the richest person in the world, and one of the most powerful.

2/ That launch of Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket & capsule was guaranteed to get a lot of attention — it is the first time Blue Origin is launching people, after 15 test flights.

But now?

Jeff Bezos as passenger / crew — in flight suit — guarantees wild, worldwide publicity.

3/ This is an 11 minute flight, just to the edge of space. Three minutes of weightlessness.

It's a pop-fly trajectory — arcing up & back down.

The first US crewed flight?

—> Alan Shepard, Mercury Freedom 7, May 5, 1961

Shepard got a 15-minute ride. 5 minutes weightless.

4/ So Bezos, his brother Mark, & the person who wins the auction for another seat (current top bid: $2.8 million! — money to charity) will get a little less of a ride than the very first US spaceflight.

But much more comfortable on New Shepard.

Great views compared to Shepard.

5/ Repeating this point:

Blue Origin has tested this rocket 15 times. They haven't been particularly forthcoming with technical data — but no obvious problems of any kind with rocket or capsule on those flights.

It's pretty darn safe.

6/ So Bezos—whose Blue Origin is going into the tourists-in-space business, to get the hang of flying people—will create an unbeatable worldwide sensation to promote that business, assuming he & Mark emerge after 15 minutes, grinning.

Still—a risk. To Amazon. To Blue Origin.

7/ And also to the Washington Post, which Bezos also owns.

If things go well, Bezos will have kicked off Blue Origin's 'human spaceflight' phase in a way no one else could have.

If possible, it might raise Bezos's worldwide profile.

8/ And, no matter what, Amazon and the Washington Post are fine. Deep leadership benches at both.

But the other — admittedly small risk — is, If there's a catastrophic problem, Blue Origin itself won't survive.

Bezos is the driving force of Blue, as he has been for Amazon.

9/ But nothing demonstrates confidence — swagger combined with safety — like, 'I own the rocket company. And I'm the first customer. That's how much I trust it.'

I spent 3 hours with Bezos at the Kent, WA, HQ of Blue Origin a couple years ago.

smithsonianmag.com/innovation/roc…

10/ Bezos is wicked smart—that's well known.

He's a graduate of my very own high school — Miami-Palmetto Senior High. And then Princeton University.

——>

11/ At one point in my interview, Bezos wandered over to a workbench of engine components, picked up a rocket turbopump, and plunged into a discussion of flow dynamics & turbulence across the surface of the turbine blades—and why they had the particular shape they had.

Bravura.

12/ Bezos has an engineering degree—but it's electrical engineering. Shorthand in the 80s for computer science & programming.

I've been writing about rocketry since the shuttle disaster in 1986. But Bezos had clearly made himself a deep, serious student of aerospace engineering.

13/ He knows what he's doing.

He will certainly have his own staff keyed up — but the first human flight of any new rocket has everyone on edge.

This is going to give the July 20 Blue Origin flight a real frisson of extra excitement.

14/ A reminder: Elon Musk hasn't gone to space himself, but he is far ahead of Bezos.

Musk routinely sends rockets to the International Space Station, 240 miles in orbit. Automated docking in orbit. Safe return.

And now multiple flights with astronauts in Crew Dragon—to ISS.

15/ In some ways, for ordinary people, the absolute routine operation of SpaceX—and Musk's on-Earth antics with twitter and cryptocurrency—obscure the genius & reliability of his rocket company.

SpaceX is a monumental achievement.

Blue Origin may turned out to be the same.

16/ Musk & SpaceX are rapidly becoming the United Airlines of space travel.

Bezos is swooping in—after 2 decades of slow, careful work—aiming to be the Southwest Airlines.

But this is a small step.

26% shorter than the flight of its namesake, Alan Shepard.

Small but splashy.

17/ CNBC anchor David Faber makes a great point:

Preparation & training for the Blue Origin flight July 20 require 3 days at Blue's W. Texas launch facility.

So if you're bidding to fly with Bezos (you need $2.81 million as of now) — you're also buying 3 days with Bezos.

18/ Bezos has said he aims, shortly, to be launching rockets once a week to space — first these up-and-down flights, eventually to orbit.

50 flights a year, just from Blue.

Right now, we're at ~ 100 launches a year for all purposes, all nations, worldwide.

19/ Musk and Bezos aim to change the economics of going to space completely.

If there's availability of flights, if the flights are frequent, scheduled, safe, and affordable — they both think the market will explode. Not really for tourists — for business.

A new space economy.