Thread by @ZoeTillman

Deep dive: On what we know so far about how much (or how little) prison time alleged Capitol rioters are facing buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…

Predicting outcomes is tricky early on, but there are few general truths:
- The vast majority of defendants plead guilty
- Maximum penalties provide context, but rarely reflect actual sentences, and that's already shaping up to be true in the Jan. 6 cases buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…

What do we know:
- 200+ misdemeanor-only cases so far, max sentences between 6 mos-1 yr. Expect defendants who plead guilty and have minimal criminal history to get far less than the max, good chance some will argue for no prison time, unclear how judges will respond to that

- Remaining 250+ face at least one felony, most common is obstructing an official proceeding. Paul Hodgkins' guilty plea establishes a baseline advisory range of 15-21 mos for obstruction and nothing else more serious (he could also argue for a below-guidelines sentence)

- Jon Schaffer's guilty plea establishes an average baseline range of 41-51 months for defendants who plead to obstruction + something else (in his case, entering the Capitol with a weapon). He's poised to get credit for cooperation, which could lower it further

The two guilty plea cases aren't the only ones where possible sentencing ranges are being floated. Douglas Jensen's lawyer estimated his worst case scenario for pleading guilty was also 41-51 mos. Christopher Grider's lawyer cited the 15-21 mos range buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…

Most Jan. 6 defendants are charged individually and before different judges in DC. But sentencing doesn't happen in a vacuum — judges will be paying attention to early pleas and comparing sentencing outcomes for similarly charged defendants buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…