Up until about May 19th, the province was running the vaccines down to just a few left before the next shipment came in. Since then, they’ve struggled to give out the doses as fast as they’ve come in, like they did earlier in the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/AHiddyCBC/status/1402375959970521090
You can see it on this graph here. Doses administered almost touched doses distributed in mid-May. That’s May 19th. Since then, we’ve had increasing doses in freezers. 
There’s a lot of reasons why that may be.
1) Hesitancy: I’m not sure we’ve hit the hesitancy drop off yet. We’re below the levels even the more pessimistic polls show. That said, we can’t pretend this isn’t a possibility. I think there’s other possibilities though.
1) Hesitancy: I’m not sure we’ve hit the hesitancy drop off yet. We’re below the levels even the more pessimistic polls show. That said, we can’t pretend this isn’t a possibility. I think there’s other possibilities though.
2) Is there vaccine brand selectivity going on?
Apparently not. An equal % of each major vaccine brand as administered relative to what SK has been given.
AZ: 79.6%
Moderna: 81.5%
Pfizer: 80.0%
Apparently not. An equal % of each major vaccine brand as administered relative to what SK has been given.
AZ: 79.6%
Moderna: 81.5%
Pfizer: 80.0%
3) Administration capacity
It’s possible we’ve hit the limit of the number of people we can vaccinate in a week.
You can see our 7-day average tends to fluctuate up and down normally & maybe we’ve ceiled.
This seems unlikely given we ‘just’ launched pharmacy distribution...
It’s possible we’ve hit the limit of the number of people we can vaccinate in a week.
You can see our 7-day average tends to fluctuate up and down normally & maybe we’ve ceiled.
This seems unlikely given we ‘just’ launched pharmacy distribution...
... So we technically have more vaccinators than we’ve ever had before.
Of course, since we’ve simultaneously scaled back SHA mass vaccine clinics, we may indeed have hit a max capacity, but more by choice than by actual ability.
Of course, since we’ve simultaneously scaled back SHA mass vaccine clinics, we may indeed have hit a max capacity, but more by choice than by actual ability.
4) Ease of Access
We’ve moved away from centralized booking and towards separate individual pharmacy booking. You’ve got to phone many places to find out what’s available. That didn’t used to be the case. Makes it harder to match demand with supply.
This may be a factor.
We’ve moved away from centralized booking and towards separate individual pharmacy booking. You’ve got to phone many places to find out what’s available. That didn’t used to be the case. Makes it harder to match demand with supply.
This may be a factor.
5) Vaccine urgency. Michael brings up something I was wondering. Related to the last point, it’s not as straight forward to find a vaccine now. People may still ‘want’ vaccinations, but not enough to dedicate the time needed to get one.
...
...
https://twitter.com/demoormj/status/1402384657950265345
... Instead you have people who want their dose the most (like the 2nd dose crew) doing whatever they need to do to get a shot. The Less Urgency Folk left are like: “I’ll get one but... seems not easy to get. I’ll wait till it’s easier.”
To answer these questions, it would be helpful to know ‘where’ the excess vaccines are. Are they evenly distributed? Are they only in places outside of centralized booking? Only in some geographical locations?
This would let us know if it’s hesitancy or access or urgency.
This would let us know if it’s hesitancy or access or urgency.
This is more than just academic. We need to know what the hold up with vaccination is in order to appropriately target our efforts. Data is key here. Otherwise we’re just assuming the problem is whatever a priori assumption we already have
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