Thread by @Ayjchan

I promised an analysis of This Week in Virology x Bob Garry on #OriginsOfCovid but was stunned by recent events, e.g., the lead, most vocal author of Proximal Origin @NatureMedicine correspondence article deleting half of his tweets and then his account.

microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-762/

I'll do it now, after spending a large amount of time reassuring (rebutting) people that I'm not a Canadian-Chinese-US NIH-suck-up scientist-spy with connections to the billionaire class.

S = scientific arguments
NS = non-scientific arguments

Garry says the 1st Proximal Origin draft was completed Feb 1.

SARS2 (Covid-19) genome was released Jan 11.

By Feb 1, they did not yet have access to RaTG13 (the closest genome match still) or the pangolin coronaviruses... unless we get more FOIA'ed emails to show otherwise.

S1: The genome of SARS2 was not found in the literature and its spike receptor binding domain (RBD) looks natural. You could not design this from scratch using other viruses published so far.

Suffice to say, scientists do not publish discoveries on time (RaTG13 was fully seq'ed 2018, only revealed post-COVID because a short fragment w 99% match to SARS2 was already in the literature) + occurrence of lab incident does not require "intelligent design" of a novel virus.

NS1: Scientists are bad at keeping secrets and would've leaked the secret of a lab leak immediately.

Don't really need to say much about this. Different countries, different cultures, sometimes keeping a secret keeps your life and your family and your lab safe.

Thank you @trvrb
My mistake: the genome of RaTG13 was available but not its actual sequencing data... the NGS would be deposited later and the amplicon data only in May 2020 after other scientists had emailed for it. The data doesn't match the genome.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1402413792403755011

NS2: We don't know the credibility of the intelligence that 3 Wuhan Institute of Virology employees were sick with COVID-19 symptoms. It could've been the flu. "Seems completely not noteworthy to me" - TWiV host

That's right. @StateDept you should declassify this data.

NS3: Garry said China did a good job identifying early cases, >50% had been to markets in Wuhan although we don't know who patient zero is.

No, their criteria was biased for people who had visited the Huanan seafood market, patient and blood samples were not tested for SARS2.

S2: There were 2 lineages, A and B in Wuhan. All the Huanan market patients had B lineage. It was likely animals introducing each lineage in different markets.

But these 2 lineages only differ by 2 mutations. That's negligible and doesn't require multiple spillovers in Wuhan.

Not to mention the "natural insertions" RmYN02 data to naturalize the furin cleavage site (FCS). Was that also available by Feb 1 to the Proximal Origin authors?

NS4: No animal samples from the markets in Wuhan or even upstream suppliers tested positive for the virus, but... wild animals might've been removed from the markets!

*conspiracy theory alert!*

NS5: We need China's help. It's a real mistake not to work with Chinese virologists to stop SARS3 or SARS4.

NS6: The @ScienceMagazine and Dr Fauci are asking for an investigation without any evidence or precedent for lab leaks.

cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…

NS7: The US intelligence community doesn't know science.

Ok, US intelligence if you're seeing these tweets, please consult with scientists. Preferably not the "minority of people who think that it is not a lab leak" according to Bob Garry.

S3: If you look at the SARS2 spike FCS sequence, no one would've inserted that specific sequence. Why that Proline? And I could've made a more powerful FCS, and eventually we would've found an FCS in SARS-like viruses.

MERS has a proline in the same spot in its FCS. You're guessing at what insights a scientist would have for inserting an FCS, in or out-of-frame, codon optimized or not.

And, a lab leak is not dependent on an FCS being artificially inserted.

NS8: The Wuhan lab was built there because of SARS1.

Completely wrong.

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1400159531129311239

NS9: Lab leaks take energy away from collaborations with China to sample virus diversity.

No. China already blocked you from sampling once Covid-19 emerged.

That's seriously it. That's the 2 hour long interview.

After Bob Garry leaves, the TWiV hosts shame conspiracy theorists who expose Asian people to danger.

NS10: A lab leak requires a whole bunch of people lying - as opposed to 10,000 people visiting the Huanan market per day and not saying anything about live mammals sold there in mid-to-late 2019.

I don't really know that many scientists who run around the lab alerting everyone to a mistake they've made.

Better to put this in the main 🧵 so people don't miss it. I made a mistake and forgot that the genome sequence of RaTG13 had been posted by Feb 1.

But how to explain the 24h change?
Jan 31, "inconsistent with.. evolutionary theory"
Feb 1, 100% natural?

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1402414872512585736