Emmett Shear Profile picture
Jun 9, 2021 23 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In honor of the 10th anniversary of launching Twitch, I thought I’d share some of the lessons I learned along the way. Each of these insights could probably be expanded into an essay, of course. Like the ones you would want me to expand on in the future.
Most of these insights are things I heard someone else say, as a caveat. I’m not claiming that I thought this all up myself! They’re the things that I find myself telling people over and over when they ask me for advice.
Make something 10 people completely love, not something most people think is pretty good.
If your product is for consumers, either it’s a daily habit, it’s used consistently in response to an external trigger, or it’s not going to grow.
There are only five growth strategies that exist, and your product probably only fits one. Press isn’t a growth strategy, and neither is word of mouth.
The five growth strategies are high-touch sales, paid advertising, intrinsic virality, intrinsic influencer incentives (Twitch!), and platform hacks.
For internet companies, growth is more important than profit. It’s very rare for a company to achieve massive scale of use, and then die because they can’t figure out the economics. The reverse is common.
Ignore your competitors, but don’t ignore their customers.
If you’re a first time manager, you suck. That’s ok, everyone sucks. Apologize to your employees, get a coach or join a support group, read books, and generally treat management like a new important skill you can master.
Every time you add a layer of hierarchy underneath you, your job as a leader changes against and gets harder. You have to keep learning and growing. Note: good reason not to hire too fast!
You know when you need to hire: when you just can’t keep up with all the work, and desperately need someone else to take over some part of the job.
Plans are useless, but planning is essential.
Your time horizon for strategic planning should approximately be equal to the length of time your organization has existed so far.
Over time, develop a huge vision that’s bigger than any specific thing you’re working on. Put it as far in the future, and make it as huge, as you have the guts to.
You think you have a morale problem; a management problem; a recruiting problem; you don’t. You have a growth problem. Nothing succeeds like success.
Three ways to have a startup idea: something you want, something you’ve directly experienced others needing, something you’ve invented through analytic thought. They are listed in order of increasing risk.
Your culture is determined by what people perceive to be the behaviors you reward and punish. Note: Not what you actually reward and punish, and also not what you say you reward and punish.
Company cultures are reflection of their founders. To change your company's culture, seek to change how you behave. To change your company's values, seek to change what you value.
Letting an underperforming employee go is difficult and painful. You invested a lot in hiring them, and you want them to succeed. As a result you will almost always fire too late.
Presume deals won’t close and manage accordingly. Not only do deals fall through as a default, if you need the deal to close it impacts negotiations and actually makes it less likely to close.
Do the job before you hire for it. You know nothing about X, so you think you need to hire an expert in X. But you can’t tell which experts are any good until you’ve learned enough to be dangerous yourself. (Exception: cofounders)
Don’t start a company. You aren’t cut out for it. And if I can persuade you not to start a company by saying it in this tweet, definitely don’t start a company. You’re buying the economy-sized amount of effort and pain.
Today is the best time ever to start a company. You might fail, you might succeed, it’s a crazy ride either way, and you’ll learn and grow more than at any job.

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More from @eshear

Oct 17
At the heart of physics is the idea of a frame of reference.
A frame is a boundary, something that separates this from that.
A frame of reference is a boundary which contains a decoder and codebook that are used to interpret the boundary’s flux as a description of the world.
The codebook is a coordinate map which indicates what perspective the codebook should take interpreting the flux.
In the discrete case, this means it decodes input states into output states. In the continuous case, it applies a projection operator onto a manifold defined by the decoder.
Read 18 tweets
Sep 28
The NPC theory: “most people” don’t really have deep inner lives where they yearn for meaning and purpose, they’re just incentive-following automatons who will do whatever satisfies their hardwired drives. Just sheep following the trends.
It’s paired with a second, usually unstated claim. Most people are NPCs, but not us…not the ones having this discussion. We are the special ones, the real people who actually care about the world, who are really paying attention. The ones who are fooled by surface appearances.
They are selling you something: the red pill. You want to be one of the special ones? Let me guide you. Let me show you how far the rabbit hole goes. You’re not one of those complacent sheep, right?
Read 6 tweets
Aug 22
Every time you dunk on someone’s stupid, evil, unacceptable behavior and message, imagine yourself serving them. A slave on the line every other hater, towing the blocks up the pyramid, building the idol of oppression you hate. Attention is care, energy, fuel: starve them out.
You are a living fountain. Your presence and attention matter. They matter more than any of us can directly understand. And they pour out from us at all times.
Every moment is a chance to refocus. Every danger is a cue to focus on your allies and barricades. Every disgusting thing a cue to clean your own house, to wash your hands and mind. Every delusion a cue to inspect your own eye.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 11
Since the cool kids are doing it, my quantum gravity prediction below! Epistemic warning: crackpot physics from someone who isn't a physicist. Epistemic upside: I think I have one maybe actually correct idea buried in it.
Ok, so there's just one quantum field. Likely in C^4 interacting via CP^3 ala Twistors or teleparallel gravity, so we'll go with that. A "particle" excitation in this field is a probability density, basically a (mixed-state) spinor.
There's only one force, sortagravity: spinors want to be in the same state as other spinors they interact with, and also want to stay the way they are. The precision of the distribution is sortamass, since interactions are basically Bayesian. Faster change = lower precision.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 24
Google exists bc of a grand bargain: scrape the open web, and profit from directing traffic to the best sites. Around
2010, the betrayal began. YouTube artificially ranked above other video, then over time maps results injected, shopping, flights, events. Now AI answers.
It’s funny-sad watching it because while Google makes billions in the short run, they’re systematically destroying the very foundations of their own business and have been for a decade. Google is cancer.
The walled gardens are *worse* than the open web. AOL lost for a reason. But the only businesses that can long-term survive operating on the internet must find some way to lock Google out. So the walled gardens return, under the new selective pressure. What waste.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 14
METR’s analysis of this experiment is wildly misleading. The results indicate that people who have ~never used AI tools before are less productive while learning to use the tools, and say ~nothing about experienced AI tool users. Let's take a look at why.
I immediately found the claim suspect because it didn't jibe with my own experience working w people using coding assistants, but sometimes there are surprising results so I dug in. The first question: who were these developers in the study getting such poor results?
“We recruited 16 experienced open-source developers to work on 246 real tasks in their own repositories (avg 22k+ stars, 1M+ lines of code).” So they sound like reasonably experienced software devs.
"Developers have a range of experience using AI tools: 93% have prior experience with tools like ChatGPT, but only 44% have experience using Cursor." Uh oh. So they haven't actually used AI coding tools, they've like tried prompting an LLM to write code for them. But that's an entirely different kind of experience, as anyone who has used these tools can tell you.
They claim "a range of experience using AI tools", yet only a single developer of their sixteen had more than a single week of experience using Cursor. They make it look like a range by breaking "less than a week" into <1 hr, 1-10hrs, 10-30hrs, and 30-50hrs of experience. Given the long steep learning curve for effectively using these new AI tools well, this division betrays what I hope is just grossly negligent ignorance about that reality, rather than intentional deception.
Of course, the one developer who did have more than a week of experience was 20% faster instead of 20% slower. The authors note this fact, but then say “We are underpowered to draw strong conclusions from this analysis” and bury it in a figure’s description in an appendix.
If the authors of the paper had made the claim, "We tested experienced developers using AI tools for the first time, and found that at least during the first week they were slower rather than faster" that would have been a modestly interesting finding and true. Alas, that is not the claim they made.Image
Read 8 tweets

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