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Jed Kolko Profile picture
@JedKolko
Jun 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Job postings on @indeed 28.6% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of Fri 6/4.

Postings rose 1.1 pts per week on average in May & early June, down from 2.0 in April and 2.2 in March.

Continued growth now, but at slower pace than earlier in year.

1/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
Sign of recovery:

HR job postings up 15 pts in last 4 weeks, one of the fastest recovering sectors now.

Firms need to hire -- so they're looking for the people who will help them hire!

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
Another sign of recovery: job postings are above pre-pandemic baseline in all large metros. The recovery has come to Hawaii!

3/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
We're now tracking state job search.

Search activity fell BELOW national trend in states cutting off federal UI imminently (June 12 and 19). That's not what you'd expect if people were upping their searches ahead of UI ending ...

4/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
... if anything it looks like relative search activity rises in states roughly one month before federal UI benefits are scheduled to end, and then falls. I'm not sure why -- open to hunches! And even that pattern isn't very strong.

5/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
What's clear is there's not a big jump in relative search activity in states cutting off federal UI benefits this Saturday June 12. We'll be watching what happens in those and other states.

6/end

hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…

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More from @JedKolko

Jed Kolko Profile picture
Jul 28, 2022
Along with the headline Q2 GDP number, which fell 0.9%, I’m watching multiple indicators that give us a fuller picture of the economy – some of which also came out this morning.

Short thread. 1/

bea.gov/news/2022/gros…
All four indicators that @whitehouseCEA noted as key NBER business-cycle-dating committee indicators rose in Q2. Today we learned that personal consumption expenditures and income-less-transfers both rose 1.0% in Q2.

2/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
The two other indicators @whitehousecea noted – nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production – rose even faster in Q2, which we learned earlier this month.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 9, 2021
New BLS jobs projections: pandemic will lead to fewer jobs requiring a high school degree only or no high school degree.

Long-term effect of pandemic is to skew job growth even more toward occupations requiring college degree.

1/
Pandemic will accelerate long-term growth of the highest paying jobs, while slowing growth of low- and middle-wage jobs.

Pre-pandemic projections were for polarization: strong job growth at the high and low ends. Now, projections favor only high-wage job growth.

2/
Pandemic projected to boost tech, business, financial, and legal jobs. But less job growth than earlier projected in personal care, sales, building services, and food prep.

Remote work, online shopping, and declining business travel/hospitality drive these shifts.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 8, 2021
In August, the labor market improved slightly _more_ in states that did not cut off federal UI early than in cutoff states.

Since May, employment up similarly in both types of states, though unemployment fell more in cutoff states.

An update with August CPS microdata.
🧵
Unemployment -0.1 pts in cutoff states in August, vs. -0.3 pts in other states.

From May to August, unemployment:
-1.0 pt in cutoff states
-0.4 pts in other states
(a statistically significant difference)
Similar story for core unemployment.

Down less in cutoff states than other states in August, but down more in cutoff states than other states from May to August.
Read 6 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 1, 2021
Job postings in US on @indeed 39.4% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of last Friday 8/27.

1.7 pt gain over previous week -- a strong pickup after some earlier sluggish weeks.

Implies current JOLTS job openings of 10.5m.

hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…

1/
Postings are 80%+ above baseline in manufacturing and in HR. Employers need HR staff in order to hire others.

Big increases in tech and finance job postings over past four weeks.

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…
But look! Postings have flattened in virus-sensitive sectors like childcare, dental, and food prep, as the Delta variant surges.

(You can make this same graph using the interactive tool in our blogpost. Hours of fun!)

3/
hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…
Read 7 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 1, 2021
New Census neighborhood data show US density increased in the 2010s. Though outlying suburbs grew fastest, downtown living rose, too.

My latest in @UpshotNYT

1/
nytimes.com/2021/09/01/ups…
@UpshotNYT Outer suburbs and downtown/central neighborhoods grew fastest between 2010 and 2020. Growth was slower in in-between neighborhoods -- denser suburbs and residential urban neighborhoods -- as in rural areas.

2/
nytimes.com/2021/09/01/ups…
The share of households living in high-density urban neighborhoods rose in the 2010s, reversing declines in the 1990s and 2000s.

3/
nytimes.com/2021/09/01/ups…
Read 8 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Aug 20, 2021
New BLS state payroll data for July:

Employment grew slightly more m/m (0.7%) in states that did not cutoff UI early than in cutoff states (0.6%), after slightly faster growth in June in cutoff states. Overall: a tie!

1/
The cumulative two month increase in payrolls, from May (when UI cutoff announcements started) to June, was 1.1% in both cutoff states and non-cutoff states.

Actually 1.13% in cutoff states and 1.09% in non-cutoff states, well within the standard of error of the difference.

2/
This is consistent with what the CPS data showed: no statistically significant difference in the increase in employment (prime-age EPOP), even though unemployment rate fell more in cutoff states.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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