In recent months, actual payroll growth has been well above the breakeven level. Job growth could slow down significantly and still be at or above breakeven. 
Pandemic will accelerate long-term growth of the highest paying jobs, while slowing growth of low- and middle-wage jobs. 
Postings are 80%+ above baseline in manufacturing and in HR. Employers need HR staff in order to hire others.
The cumulative two month increase in payrolls, from May (when UI cutoff announcements started) to June, was 1.1% in both cutoff states and non-cutoff states. 
Postings down in goods sectors like manufacturing, warehouse, & construction, though still way above pre-pandemic baseline. Materials shortages might be holding back hiring. Tech, finance, research, and engineering up in recent weeks.
Postings far above baseline in goods sectors: warehouse, manufacturing, and construction. 
HR job postings up sharply as employers across most sectors are eager to hire. 
Sign of recovery: 
Health reasons include being sick with coronavirus symptoms, worried about getting or spreading the virus, and sick/disabled for other reasons. 
Pharmacy jobs way up. So are jobs that make & move physical stuff. 
Food prep and childcare job postings have slowed in the past couple of weeks as the virus spreads. But loading & stocking jobs are well above last year's trend.
Lots of postings for jobs that get things to people. Loading & stocking and driving jobs well above last year's trend.
