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Jed Kolko Profile picture
Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
U/S Econ Affairs @commercegov. Previously @indeed and @trulia. Seeking great dumplings in DC. Personal account. Contact https://t.co/fPpgENMwRd.
Jul 28, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Along with the headline Q2 GDP number, which fell 0.9%, I’m watching multiple indicators that give us a fuller picture of the economy – some of which also came out this morning.

Short thread. 1/

bea.gov/news/2022/gros… All four indicators that @whitehouseCEA noted as key NBER business-cycle-dating committee indicators rose in Q2. Today we learned that personal consumption expenditures and income-less-transfers both rose 1.0% in Q2.

2/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
Sep 9, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New BLS jobs projections: pandemic will lead to fewer jobs requiring a high school degree only or no high school degree.

Long-term effect of pandemic is to skew job growth even more toward occupations requiring college degree.

1/ Pandemic will accelerate long-term growth of the highest paying jobs, while slowing growth of low- and middle-wage jobs.

Pre-pandemic projections were for polarization: strong job growth at the high and low ends. Now, projections favor only high-wage job growth.

2/
Sep 8, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In August, the labor market improved slightly _more_ in states that did not cut off federal UI early than in cutoff states.

Since May, employment up similarly in both types of states, though unemployment fell more in cutoff states.

An update with August CPS microdata.
🧵 Unemployment -0.1 pts in cutoff states in August, vs. -0.3 pts in other states.

From May to August, unemployment:
-1.0 pt in cutoff states
-0.4 pts in other states
(a statistically significant difference)
Sep 1, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Job postings in US on @indeed 39.4% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of last Friday 8/27.

1.7 pt gain over previous week -- a strong pickup after some earlier sluggish weeks.

Implies current JOLTS job openings of 10.5m.

hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…

1/ Postings are 80%+ above baseline in manufacturing and in HR. Employers need HR staff in order to hire others.

Big increases in tech and finance job postings over past four weeks.

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…
Sep 1, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
New Census neighborhood data show US density increased in the 2010s. Though outlying suburbs grew fastest, downtown living rose, too.

My latest in @UpshotNYT

1/
nytimes.com/2021/09/01/ups… @UpshotNYT Outer suburbs and downtown/central neighborhoods grew fastest between 2010 and 2020. Growth was slower in in-between neighborhoods -- denser suburbs and residential urban neighborhoods -- as in rural areas.

2/
nytimes.com/2021/09/01/ups…
Aug 20, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
New BLS state payroll data for July:

Employment grew slightly more m/m (0.7%) in states that did not cutoff UI early than in cutoff states (0.6%), after slightly faster growth in June in cutoff states. Overall: a tie!

1/ The cumulative two month increase in payrolls, from May (when UI cutoff announcements started) to June, was 1.1% in both cutoff states and non-cutoff states.

Actually 1.13% in cutoff states and 1.09% in non-cutoff states, well within the standard of error of the difference.

2/
Aug 19, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
States that cut off federal UI early saw bigger drops in the unemployment rate, but NOT a bigger increase in employment, than other states, from May to July.

Recapping what the July CPS microdata show, now with 🎉more technical detail🎉 by popular demand.

Thread. First, unemployment. May-July U-3 fell 0.9 pts in cutoff states, 0.1 pt in non-cutoff states. Difference of 0.9 pts. Standard error on diff-in-diff is 0.3; 95% CI is [0.3, 1.4]. So: statistically significant despite CPS noise.

(All math is pre-rounding, standard caveat applies.)
Aug 18, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
New! US job postings on @indeed 36.6% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of last Friday 8/13.

Small 0.7 %pt increase from previous week. Unchanged vs four weeks ago.

At Indeed rate of change for July/Aug, JOLTS job openings would be 10.3m last Friday.

hiringlab.org/2021/08/18/job…

1/ Postings down in goods sectors like manufacturing, warehouse, & construction, though still way above pre-pandemic baseline. Materials shortages might be holding back hiring. Tech, finance, research, and engineering up in recent weeks.

hiringlab.org/2021/08/18/job…

2/
Aug 17, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
A first look at July employment data suggests bigger drops in unemployment in states cutting off federal UI early, but similar increases in employment in cutoff and others states.

I took a simple look at the July CPS microdata, but the story got complicated.

Thread. Unemployment (U-3) fell more in July, as well in June, in the 26 cutoff states than in other states. Unemployment was already lower in cutoff states in May (1.2 pt gap), which widened by July (2.1 pt gap). Image
Jul 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
New! Update!

Job postings on @indeed now 36.5% above pre-pandemic baseline.

Postings rising at slower pace in May/June/July than in March/April.

At this rate, JOLTS job openings would stand at 9.8m as of last Friday.

1/
hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the… Postings far above baseline in goods sectors: warehouse, manufacturing, and construction.

Plus HR jobs are high and climbing -- employers want to hire the people who will help them hire.

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…
Jun 22, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Job postings on @indeed 30.5% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of Fri 6/18.

Postings still rising, but only half as much in May & June as in March & April.

Implied JOLTS job openings now, based on recent Indeed postings growth: 9.8m

hiringlab.org/2021/06/22/job…

1/ HR job postings up sharply as employers across most sectors are eager to hire.

Earlier in pandemic, HR postings lagged as hiring plunged. Now HR postings (+52.5%) are further above baseline than postings overall (+30.5%).

hiringlab.org/2021/06/22/job…

2/
Jun 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Job postings on @indeed 28.6% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of Fri 6/4.

Postings rose 1.1 pts per week on average in May & early June, down from 2.0 in April and 2.2 in March.

Continued growth now, but at slower pace than earlier in year.

1/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job… Sign of recovery:

HR job postings up 15 pts in last 4 weeks, one of the fastest recovering sectors now.

Firms need to hire -- so they're looking for the people who will help them hire!

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/06/09/job…
Apr 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The Friday afternoon labor market chart:
Why aren't people working?

Health reasons are high but dropping.
Temporary business slowdowns also dropping.
Retirements are up.
Caregiving hasn't budged.

More details follow ...

1/ Health reasons include being sick with coronavirus symptoms, worried about getting or spreading the virus, and sick/disabled for other reasons.

This peaked in the December/January virus wave and has thankfully come down ... and hopefully will continue to.

2/
Apr 20, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Did the pandemic upend migration patterns? Not so much! The places that gained and lost people in 2020 were pretty much the same places as in 2019.

New! in @UpshotNYT with @emilymbadger @qdbui

nytimes.com/interactive/20… Places that gained movers in the pandemic were, those that gained pre-pandemic. New York and the Bay Area stand out for losing more people in the pandemic than the year before.

2/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Mar 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Job postings on @indeed 8.6% above the pre-pandemic baseline. Big two-point gain in the past week.

hiringlab.org/2021/03/15/job…

1/ Pharmacy jobs way up. So are jobs that make & move physical stuff.

Some new bright spots: childcare jobs, and HR jobs (more hiring coming soon?).

But hospitality & tourism still 1/4 below baseline.

hiringlab.org/2021/03/15/job…

2/
Dec 7, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Job postings on @indeed are 11% below last year's trend. Very slight improvement vs week ago (-11.5% vs -11.6%). Gains have slowed, especially relative to summer rebound.

hiringlab.org/2020/12/07/job…

1/ Food prep and childcare job postings have slowed in the past couple of weeks as the virus spreads. But loading & stocking jobs are well above last year's trend.

hiringlab.org/2020/12/07/job…

2/
Dec 7, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
County vote data are nearly all reported. (Finally!)

Here's what happened in the 2020 election.

New from @MonkovicNYT
and me this morning in @UpshotNYT

1/
nytimes.com/2020/12/07/ups… The 2020 vote was very similar to 2016 -- and slightly LESS polarized.

Correlation of county vote margin between 2016 and 2020 was 0.99 (not a typo). And Trump-voting counties in 2016 swung more to Biden than Clinton-voting counties in 2016 did.

2/
nytimes.com/2020/12/07/ups…
Nov 11, 2020 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
The election scrambled some local partisan differences, but the red-blue economic divide hardened.

My latest in @UpshotNYT

nytimes.com/2020/11/11/ups…

1/ Places with brighter future economic prospects swung toward Biden. Higher college attainment, higher median household income, faster projected job growth, and fewer routine jobs were all correlated with a bigger Democratic margin in 2020 than 2016.

nytimes.com/2020/11/11/ups…

2/
Nov 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
US job postings on @indeed now 13% below last year's trend. Improvement continues, though at slower pace than the summer rebound.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

1/ Lots of postings for jobs that get things to people. Loading & stocking and driving jobs well above last year's trend.

But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism have improved little.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

2/
Nov 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Core unemployment remained high in October -- falling just slightly from Sept.

Core unemployment excludes temporary layoffs and remains near its pandemic high.

1/ Although the headline unemployment rate is far down from its peak, core unemployment remains near its pandemic high. Temporary layoffs are fading. Permanent unemployment is not.

2/
Nov 5, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Job postings in the US 14.0% below last year's trend, as of last Friday.

Continued improvement but at much slower rate than in summer.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/05/job…

1/ Moving-stuff-around jobs (loading & stocking, and driving) above last year's level. But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism still suffer.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/05/job…

2/