Anatomy of a #1 Overall RB
Since 2016 (5 seasons), the RB1 has finished with at least 25 PPR FPPG. Overall, 6 running backs have hit this mark in a season since 2016 (minimum 10 games, only 2020 CMC would qualify otherwise). These RBs have a lot in common.
Since 2016 (5 seasons), the RB1 has finished with at least 25 PPR FPPG. Overall, 6 running backs have hit this mark in a season since 2016 (minimum 10 games, only 2020 CMC would qualify otherwise). These RBs have a lot in common.
1: Touches
With Kamara 2020 being a slight exception (more on that later), these running backs get 250+ carries and 60+ catches - at least ~23 touches per game.
With Kamara 2020 being a slight exception (more on that later), these running backs get 250+ carries and 60+ catches - at least ~23 touches per game.
2: Yardage Efficiency
In all 6 qualifying seasons, these RB1's made the most of their touches. Excluding DJ's 2016 (4.2 YPC, made up for it with 11.0 YPR), all RB's achieved at least 4.7 YPC and 8.2 YPR. Overall, these RB's got at least 5.6 yards per touch.
In all 6 qualifying seasons, these RB1's made the most of their touches. Excluding DJ's 2016 (4.2 YPC, made up for it with 11.0 YPR), all RB's achieved at least 4.7 YPC and 8.2 YPR. Overall, these RB's got at least 5.6 yards per touch.
3: Touchdowns
Perhaps most importantly, these RBs averaged 14 TDs per season. TD's accounted for 28% of their fantasy points.
In 2020, 3.6% of RB carries went for TD's. These 6 RB's scored on 5.4% of carries, and tacked on an average of 4.2 receiving TD's to boot.
Perhaps most importantly, these RBs averaged 14 TDs per season. TD's accounted for 28% of their fantasy points.
In 2020, 3.6% of RB carries went for TD's. These 6 RB's scored on 5.4% of carries, and tacked on an average of 4.2 receiving TD's to boot.
4: Good teams
Good teams --> Good gamescripts + Touchdowns --> Fantasy points
Simple, but true.
These teams averaged 9.9 wins (62% win %), with CMC 2019 as the only RB1 on a truly bad team (5 wins).
Good teams --> Good gamescripts + Touchdowns --> Fantasy points
Simple, but true.
These teams averaged 9.9 wins (62% win %), with CMC 2019 as the only RB1 on a truly bad team (5 wins).
5: Good offenses
"Running backs don't matter!" Agree or not, even the best RBs cannot carry a team alone. These RB1s were all on successful offenses, giving them chances to pick up yards, and score.
These teams averaged XX PPG, and were all top 10 offenses (except CMC in 2019)
"Running backs don't matter!" Agree or not, even the best RBs cannot carry a team alone. These RB1s were all on successful offenses, giving them chances to pick up yards, and score.
These teams averaged XX PPG, and were all top 10 offenses (except CMC in 2019)
6: Age
All 6 of these RB were between 23.1 and 25.1 years old at the start of their RB1 season, and all 6 were RB1s in their 2nd-4th seasons.
Rookie contract RBs are king. Experienced enough to handle and succeed with a full workload, young enough to hold up.
All 6 of these RB were between 23.1 and 25.1 years old at the start of their RB1 season, and all 6 were RB1s in their 2nd-4th seasons.
Rookie contract RBs are king. Experienced enough to handle and succeed with a full workload, young enough to hold up.
So, what's the anatomy of an RB1?
1: Significant workload (5 had 250+ carries, 6 had 60+ catches)
2: Efficient (5 with 4.7+ YPC)
3: TD (5 with 13+)
4: Good teams (4 with 11+ wins)
5: Good offenses (5 in top 10)
6: Rookie contract (all 6)
1: Significant workload (5 had 250+ carries, 6 had 60+ catches)
2: Efficient (5 with 4.7+ YPC)
3: TD (5 with 13+)
4: Good teams (4 with 11+ wins)
5: Good offenses (5 in top 10)
6: Rookie contract (all 6)
So now the big question - who could fit into this description in 2021? Let's address all the major options... I'll go by fantasypros redraft PPR rankings.
CMC:
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract ✅
CMC is an anomaly within this analysis, and I'd never write him off, but given his injury and workload history, and his mediocre team, it's an uphill battle.
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract ✅
CMC is an anomaly within this analysis, and I'd never write him off, but given his injury and workload history, and his mediocre team, it's an uphill battle.
Dalvin:
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract ✅
He'd be my pick to finish RB1.
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract ✅
He'd be my pick to finish RB1.
Kamara:
1: Carries🚫, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract 🚫
Entering year 5, with major questions on the offensive system and success, and heavily dependent on a unsustainable 2020 TD rate.
1: Carries🚫, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract 🚫
Entering year 5, with major questions on the offensive system and success, and heavily dependent on a unsustainable 2020 TD rate.
Saquon:
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓🚫 (Vegas O/U 7)
5: Good offense❓🚫
6: Rookie contract ✅
Coming off an injury, and I don't trust this offense. I won't rule him out, but it's unlikely
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team❓🚫 (Vegas O/U 7)
5: Good offense❓🚫
6: Rookie contract ✅
Coming off an injury, and I don't trust this offense. I won't rule him out, but it's unlikely
Derrick Henry
1: Carries✅, Catches 🚫
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9.5)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
He had 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns last season and couldn't do it. He's not going to do it.
1: Carries✅, Catches 🚫
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9.5)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
He had 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns last season and couldn't do it. He's not going to do it.
Ezekiel Elliott
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ❓
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9.5)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
Volume is there (we think?) efficiency is not. Just not a good enough player (see article by @FF_RTDB here) playerprofiler.com/article/ezekie…
1: Carries✅, Catches ✅
2: Efficiency ❓
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9.5)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
Volume is there (we think?) efficiency is not. Just not a good enough player (see article by @FF_RTDB here) playerprofiler.com/article/ezekie…
Jonathan Taylor
1: Carries✅, Catches ❓
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 10)
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract ✅
Darkhorse favorite?... if Wentz finds his form, and he gets utilized in the passing game like he deserves.
1: Carries✅, Catches ❓
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 10)
5: Good offense❓
6: Rookie contract ✅
Darkhorse favorite?... if Wentz finds his form, and he gets utilized in the passing game like he deserves.
Austin Ekeler
1: Carries🚫, Catches✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns 🚫
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
The inspiration for this thread. Ekeler should not be winning this poll!
1: Carries🚫, Catches✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns 🚫
4: Good team❓ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
The inspiration for this thread. Ekeler should not be winning this poll!
https://twitter.com/Matt2Frosty/status/1402689542067458053
Aaron Jones
1: Carries✅, Catches✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
If Rodgers comes back, he's a real threat to run away with this (pun intended). Low tread, and no Jamaal Williams as competition.
1: Carries✅, Catches✅
2: Efficiency ✅
3: Touchdowns ✅
4: Good team✅ (Vegas O/U 9)
5: Good offense✅
6: Rookie contract 🚫
If Rodgers comes back, he's a real threat to run away with this (pun intended). Low tread, and no Jamaal Williams as competition.
Speed round....
Chubb - not enough touches
Akers - he could do it!
Mixon - too bad of a team, inefficient
Gibson - he could do it if he gets the touches!
Swift - not enough carries, bad team
CEH - not enough carries/TDs, but a possibility!
Najee - it's possible!
Chubb - not enough touches
Akers - he could do it!
Mixon - too bad of a team, inefficient
Gibson - he could do it if he gets the touches!
Swift - not enough carries, bad team
CEH - not enough carries/TDs, but a possibility!
Najee - it's possible!
Speed round 2...
Sanders - not enough touches? bad team? bad offense?
Carson - not enough touches/catches
Dobbins - not enough touches, but possible
Montgomery - receptions?
Jacobs - not enough touches
Gaskin/Hunt/Davis - nope
Sanders - not enough touches? bad team? bad offense?
Carson - not enough touches/catches
Dobbins - not enough touches, but possible
Montgomery - receptions?
Jacobs - not enough touches
Gaskin/Hunt/Davis - nope
To conclude... the RB1 from this season will be one of these players:
CMC, Dalvin, Saquon, JT, Jones, Akers, Gibson, CEH, Najee, Dobbins, Montgomery
Hope you enjoyed this analysis, let me know what you think!
CMC, Dalvin, Saquon, JT, Jones, Akers, Gibson, CEH, Najee, Dobbins, Montgomery
Hope you enjoyed this analysis, let me know what you think!
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