This sentence includes one grossly misleading claim and one flatly inaccurate one.…
$80B was RAND's estimated savings over *10 years.* That's about 2% of total health spending. It's based on multiple dubious assumptions, including the idea that health providers, Albany's most formidable lobbying force, will accept slower growth in payments.
RAND's first-year savings estimate was $2B or less than 1%, which is negligible given the enormous uncertainty involved in forecasting health care spending.
As for what share of New Yorkers would hypothetically save money under single-payer, RAND gave several numbers, none of which was close to 98%.

Its baseline estimate was 65%, and came with this crucial caveat:
In other words, the theoretically savings for two-thirds of New Yorkers would depend almost entirely on the other third being forced to pay more -- almost one-fifth of their income at the high end.
Here's the RAND report:…

Here is my summary of the case against single-payer:…

And here is my more in-depth analysis:…

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More from @NYHammond

9 Jun
The NYS Legislature has voted to require doctors to prescribe naloxone, an anti-overdose drug, for certain high-risk patients using opioids.

Has the state ever mandated doctors to prescribe a certain medication before?…
This seems to intrude on the doctor-patient relationship in a pretty fundamental way.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jun
In more 3,200 pages of Fauci emails from January through June 2020, just released under FOIA, there is one reference to a communication between him and Gov. Cuomo ...…
On 3/4/20, Fauci wrote to a fellow NIH official:

"I received a text from Governor Cuomo of NY State and he wants me to come up to NYC for a Press Conference with his Health Commissioner, Howard Zuycker [sic]."…
Fauci was copied on 4/6 and 4/8 emails about media strategy that listed Cuomo as one of several governors who might be helpful.…
Read 6 tweets
14 May
Catching up to this @GormleyAlbany story about vacancy rates in New York nursing homes, which are three times higher than normal -- and have barely budged since last May.…
When I first looked at nursing home vacancy last June, it had soared to 21% from a typical level of 8%.…
The share of empty nursing homes beds has stayed close to 21% ever since -- rising to a high of almost 24% in January.
Read 4 tweets
29 Apr
Lawmakers in Albany are again advancing the NY Health Act, which would abolish private health insurance and herd all NYers into a state-run “single payer” plan financed with massive tax hikes.

Here are 10 reasons why “Albanycare” is the wrong way to go.…
#1: It’s a leap of faith
Instead of modeling their plan on an existing system, the authors propose a 100% tax-funded blanket health plan with no private alternatives allowed. Nothing quite like it has ever been tried before—in the U.S. or anywhere else.
#2: It’s unnecessarily disruptive
NY's uninsured population has dropped to a historic low of about 1M, many of whom are eligible for existing programs. The state could focus on covering that group without changing things for everyone else.
Read 12 tweets
17 Apr
.@GannettAlbany and @JonCampbellGAN report that Victoria Derbyshire, acting director of Wadsworth Labs at the NYS Health Department, is preparing to retire -- the latest in a string of high-level staff departures at DOH.…
Even before the pandemic, the state's public health budget and staffing were in a decade-long decline.…
In the just-passed state budget, publicly reported funding for Wadsworth was sliced by another third.…
Read 5 tweets
9 Apr
A head-scratcher:

Even as Cuomo & the Legislature ramped up overall spending by 10%, they *cut* the operating allocation for NY's public health lab, the Wadsworth Center, by 1/3.…
Wadsworth played a key role in the state's pandemic response, including quickly developing an alternative COVID test last February when the CDC's test failed.…
The budget reported includes $750 million in capital funding for a new Wadsworth facility in Albany.…
Read 4 tweets

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