BREAKING: cases of the India Delta variant have risen from 12431 to 42323 in *a week* - 21 June looking increasingly unlikely
PHE analysis suggests Delta is 60% more transmissible than Kent/Alpha
Please do not shoot the messenger! Thank you in advance
Story @theipaper here inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
With widespread vaccination, cases are not converting to hospitalisations as much as they did in previous waves. But a large increase in cases still matter, because it’s a question of scale…
Small numbers of people who are unvaccinated + small numbers of vaccinated people who still go to hospital because jabs not 100% effective + small numbers of people getting sick after one dose x 60% more transmissible variant = a lot of people in hospital
There is however good news in the PHE document of further evidence the link between cases and serious disease is being broken by vaccines - 2/3 of people in hospital with Delta are unvaccinated inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
For what it’s worth - and as I say in the piece - I don’t think this will mean 21 June goes ahead but it looks good for the medium-term, if more people can get double dosed by early July
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