Henry Gao Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In addition to the anti-sanctions law, China also issued a Data Security Law yesterday, which includes some good news and some not-so-good news.

I will start with the good news:
1. The law explicitly mentions in two provisions that China will safeguard and promote the free flow of data, which is consistent with China’s new position on data flow in the RCEP;
2. China will actively participate in the making of international rules on data security and standards. This is consistent with China’s active participation in the WTO JSI negotiations on e-commerce, which was analyzed extensively in my paper at ssrn.com/abstract=36953….
Now let me turn to the not-so-good news:
1. In most countries, data protection laws focus on personal data. In China, however, there is also the highly ambiguous concept of “important data”, as mentioned in Art. 31 of the Cybersecurity Law.
Now Data Security Law creates yet another type called “core data”, which is more important than important data & subject to the most stringent restrictions. “Core data” includes those on national security, lifeline of national economy, key people's livelihood, public interests.
There seems to be a lot of overlap between "core data" and important data on “critical information infrastructure”, which as I discussed in this paper is a rather vague concept: ssrn.com/abstract=34302…
2. Under Cybersecurity Law, review on data transfer is only required for important data collected and generated by operators of critical information infrastructure.
Under Data Security Law, however, even the transfer of important data collected and generated by other data processors could be subject to security review, subject to the rules to be made by the Cyberspace Administration of China.
3. Data security issues will now be decided and coordinated by the Central National Security Commission of the Chinese Communist Party.

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More from @henrysgao

Oct 14
I’m tired of people claiming that China and US reached an agreement in Madrid last month to refrain from introducing new restrictions.

That is simply not true — even by China’s own account.

1. People’s Daily editorial published the day after the talks quoted He Lifeng saying
“China HOPES US and China would go hand in hand, cancel the relevant restrictions on China as soon as possible, jointly safeguard the hard-won results of the talks with practical actions, and continue to create a good atmosphere for stability of economic and trade relations.” Image
2. The next day, another People’s Daily editorial made it even clearer:
“It must be pointed out that after a series of economic and trade consultations, the wrong practice of the US to unilaterally impose economic and trade restrictions on China has not stopped. The US has Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 11
Why the sudden wave of retaliations and escalations from Beijing?

The answer lies in the eight editorials published in the People’s Daily over the past few days.

Written under the pen name 钟才文, these pieces are widely understood to represent the views of the Office of the Image
Central Financial and Economic Commission, headed by He Lifeng — China’s economic tsar.

The Oct 4 editorial proclaimed that China has become “the main contributor to global economic growth and an anchor of stability,” attributing this to the “certainty” of China’s development Image
strategy - a pointed contrast to the “back-and-forth” policies of “some Western countries.” It went on to mock US inconsistencies: “In the past, they championed globalization; now they turn inward. In the past, they vowed to fight climate change; now they withdraw from Paris Agr” Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 15
Xi’s Feb speech to private firms is finally published—and it confirms everything I predicted before the meeting:
Private firms must fully align with China’s strategic competition vs the US. Image
Xi says private firms’ problems stem from external shocks (tech revolutions, trade restrictions) or internal missteps (over-diversification).

To Xi, the Party is not the problem, it is the solution.

Thus, firms must “unify their thoughts and actions with the Central Committee.” Image
Xi was even more explicit on measures to boost private firms: they should lead national science & tech projects, access major research infrastructure, and join state-led initiatives.

Exactly what I predicted 3 years ago in my @CIGI essay: private firms must be integrated into Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 8
What’s the biggest threat to China’s economy in the 2nd half of 2025?

It’s not the trade war, nor any new government policy. It’s a judicial interpretation from the Supreme Court.

On July 31, the Court issued Interpretation on Applicable Law in Trying Labour Dispute Cases (II). Image
Article 19 states:

“If the employer agrees with the employee, or the employee promises the employer, that there is no need to pay social security premiums, the people’s court shall find the agreement or promise invalid. If the employer fails to pay social security premiums in Image
accordance with the law, and the employee requests the termination of the labour contract in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 38 of the Labour Contract Law and demands economic compensation, the people’s court shall support the claim.”
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3
强烈推荐大家收听@guoguang_wu老师的这期访谈。吴老师不仅深入分析了中共之后中国的现实可能性,还提出了多项具体可行的民主转型策略。以下是我对访谈要点的总结:

1. 里应外合,如齐伐燕

“里应外合”有两重含义。一方面,反对力量应善用国际社会的影响力。当下内需疲弱、对外贸依赖日益加深的背景下
国际支持对于中国的民主转型更是至关重要。而近期以@milesyu10 教授为代表的美国保守派也开始认真探讨中共之后中国的可能性,则代表美国政经精英也开始关心这个议题,甚至为此做准备。我在此大胆预测:如果“汤武之事”在未来数年再度上演,那么包括马斯克在内的西方精英或明或暗表达支持也不足为奇。
@milesyu10 另一方面,反对派也应主动寻求与体制内开明派的接触与合作,以力借力,在不牺牲原则的前提下推动体制内改变。

中国历史上不乏里应外合夺取政权的例子,最近的是49年鼎革之变,远的则是当年被孟子视为正义之战的齐伐燕。当年的燕国内乱是由于燕王乱放权,禅位于相国。结合吴老师最近在 @bumingbaipod
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1
The new tariff numbers confirm what I wrote 4 months ago in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal”:

1. I stressed that these negotiations aren’t just about trade-security alignment would be a key factor. This is now explicit in the executive order, which repeatedly cites Image
Image
security considerations in setting final tariff rates.

2. I predicted countries would be grouped based on key criteria. That’s exactly what we see: broadly speaking, there are three groups—friends (10–15%), enemies (30%+), and frenemies (19–25%).
3. I anticipated aggressive transshipment controls targeting China. The executive order includes just that.

4. Perhaps most tellingly, the order hints what China—the last holdout from the Liberation Day Tariffs—is likely to face: at least 40%, matching the rate applied to Image
Image
Read 4 tweets

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