1) Do you want to retire a millionaire? Then let me show you how important it is to save money and make regular additions to your investment account
Starting with a baseline case of an investor with 25,000$ and making a 1% a month rate of return
Not bad, but we can do better
Now the same 25,000$ and the same 1% a month return, but this time the investor adds 300$ a month to the account
Now they'll have over 1 million 25 years later, and the additions were only 90,000 along the way
We're starting to see the power of compounding, but let's keep going
Now the investor is a diligent saver and manages to sock away 1,000$ a month to the account
25 years later they now have over 2.3 million. Of course 300,000$ of that is what they added themselves, but the raw gain after additions is now 5x more than the baseline
Finally, through hard work and a good income they can now (or together with a spouse) save 3,000$ a month
This person (or couple) will now have over 6 million in retirement.
That's the power of compounding!
Every dollar added to an investment account also compounds at that rate going forward. It's a one two punch and it really starts to amplify the long term results.
Who knows if Einstein actually said this, but whoever did, they're absolutely right!
If you want to have success long-term:
1) Work hard and get a stable income 2) Live below your means and save money 3) Get a consistent and realistic rate of return
No chasing shiny objects, no taking on massive risk. Just consistent forward progress!
YOUR job is the first two. Work hard, get your income right, live below your means so you can add money regularly
MY job is the last one, to help you get a consistent long-term rate of return that allows you to reach your goals. I target drawdown reduction as my main weapon
Most investors assume to retire a multi-millionaire you need to chase some exorbitantly high rate of return. They assume people who have 5-10 million dollars in retirement must have been an early investor in Amazon, or maybe they were a high paid surgeon, or lottery winner...
Or maybe... It's just someone who had a good job, lived below their means, made a consistent rate of return by minimizing portfolio drawdowns, and consistently added a few thousand dollars to their investment account?
You can do it too!
VIDEO: 👇
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Here's a really fun thread showing how a trader selling Naked UVXY Call Options would have lost 1 MILLION dollars during the pandemic
This is a cautionary tale for anybody who thinks this is a good idea...
We all know UVXY decays right?
2) I've heard people talking about their layering systems where they divide their capital into pieces and only short naked UVXY Calls with the 1st level
Then they use the reserved capital to "defend" the position if it goes badly
Oh don't worry, it will go VERY badly 😂
3) The structure of the strategy sucks right from the start
Selling Calls already brings in small premiums, and you're only allocating 25% of your capital to the 1st wave
So with the high win rate of short premium, you're essentially making pennies on just 1/4 of your capital
M1:M2 VIX futures contango / backwardation is a basic gauge of the pulse of the market
Let's check out the level of Contango through all major S&P 500 drawdowns in the last 15 years
Starting with the 2008 financial crisis 👇
VERY unpredictable before the bottom fell out
2011 European debt crisis:
This was pretty clean all things considered. Backwardation during the entire period and when the market decided it was over, it was a clean break back into Contango
2015 China hard landing scare
This period was a mess with two distinct down periods. August / September things got ugly, then recovered, and then really fell apart early 2016
This is a great period to use for backtesting the robustness of your Volatility strategy