Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#1 ‘we are doomed to failure if we see it purely as a game of numbers.. lowering the bar to get developers to build tiny, dim, carbon-intensive, socially-isolating, unaffordable boxes’ alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-buil…
#1 ‘we are doomed to failure if we see it purely as a game of numbers.. lowering the bar to get developers to build tiny, dim, carbon-intensive, socially-isolating, unaffordable boxes’ alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-buil…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#2 most claiming that supply will meet demand (at a hypothetical equilibrium) expect it to take until 2025... which suggests 4 more years of rising house prices
extra.ie/2021/05/04/fea…
#2 most claiming that supply will meet demand (at a hypothetical equilibrium) expect it to take until 2025... which suggests 4 more years of rising house prices
extra.ie/2021/05/04/fea…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#3 Speculative developers now have high sales prices baked-in to financing.. if market prices drop they may lose funding, they can’t build & sell at a loss
*this from current apartment proposal in Dublin 7
#3 Speculative developers now have high sales prices baked-in to financing.. if market prices drop they may lose funding, they can’t build & sell at a loss
*this from current apartment proposal in Dublin 7
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#4 European Commission say it’s not costs that are the problem, it’s a lack of competition
Market is almost closed to new entrants because of high barriers to accessing land & finance ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…
#4 European Commission say it’s not costs that are the problem, it’s a lack of competition
Market is almost closed to new entrants because of high barriers to accessing land & finance ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#5 research says ‘dysfunctional housing system, where land-price trap overly dominates’
‘fundamental change required to move to permanently affordable, stable & more sustainable system’irishtimes.com/news/social-af…
#5 research says ‘dysfunctional housing system, where land-price trap overly dominates’
‘fundamental change required to move to permanently affordable, stable & more sustainable system’irishtimes.com/news/social-af…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#6 ‘additional 1% housing stock expected to lower house prices (& rents) by around 1.5-2%, all else equal’
In Dublin an extra 5,000 new homes may cut €350,000 price by €5,250-7,000
housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
#6 ‘additional 1% housing stock expected to lower house prices (& rents) by around 1.5-2%, all else equal’
In Dublin an extra 5,000 new homes may cut €350,000 price by €5,250-7,000
housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#7 supply of residential property ≠ supply of housing
In London ‘score of flats lie empty’
(Dublin already has high vacancy rates in new high-price build-to-rent developments)
theguardian.com/artanddesign/2…
#7 supply of residential property ≠ supply of housing
In London ‘score of flats lie empty’
(Dublin already has high vacancy rates in new high-price build-to-rent developments)
theguardian.com/artanddesign/2…
So SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem in a speculative property market
Supply needs to be:
🏠affordable -related to incomes
🏠scalable -not limited by high public subsidies
🏠sustainable -affordability for long term housing system, not 1st resident
Supply needs to be:
🏠affordable -related to incomes
🏠scalable -not limited by high public subsidies
🏠sustainable -affordability for long term housing system, not 1st resident
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem
#8 In 2006, 90,000 new homes were built in Ireland & house prices didn’t drop
House prices fell during 2008-13 in a fire sale following a financial crash, caused by property speculation (pic @finfacts)
#8 In 2006, 90,000 new homes were built in Ireland & house prices didn’t drop
House prices fell during 2008-13 in a fire sale following a financial crash, caused by property speculation (pic @finfacts)
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the housing affordability problem
#9 Market prices are now being driven by ‘unprecedented amounts of global capital invested in housing as security trading on global markets’
-UN Special Rapporteur Letter to Ireland 2019 ohchr.org/Documents/Issu…
#9 Market prices are now being driven by ‘unprecedented amounts of global capital invested in housing as security trading on global markets’
-UN Special Rapporteur Letter to Ireland 2019 ohchr.org/Documents/Issu…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the housing affordability problem
#10 Market prices are not in the main driven by construction costs (current difficulties with pandemic & Brexit aside)
As evidenced by sales prices of private developers outside Dublin <€212,000 3-bed houses
#10 Market prices are not in the main driven by construction costs (current difficulties with pandemic & Brexit aside)
As evidenced by sales prices of private developers outside Dublin <€212,000 3-bed houses
PS #1 economist PJ Drudy
“In Dublin, multinational landlords acquired considerable numbers of apartments, free of capital gains tax, during downturn & now charge rents far beyond means of most. Such landlords have, in effect, an anti-competitive monopoly”
irishtimes.com/opinion/housin…
“In Dublin, multinational landlords acquired considerable numbers of apartments, free of capital gains tax, during downturn & now charge rents far beyond means of most. Such landlords have, in effect, an anti-competitive monopoly”
irishtimes.com/opinion/housin…
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