An addiction model may actually explain tribalism, confirmation bias, and even conspiracy theories/Qanon. Let’s unpack….
Several years ago I started observing the parallels between addiction and political tribalism as marriages/friendships/families imploded over politics….1/
Specifically, I started noticing the parallels between the effect that addiction has on relationships when those relationships (interventions) threaten the continuation of the addictive behavior/activity.
Basically,….2/
…when confronted with a threat to the addiction, the addict will often cut the loved one out of their life, rather than cut out the addictive behavior.
This has occurred countless times over the last 5 years as people have cut family/friends out of their lives over politics. 3/
For example, I had a daughter tell me that her 80 something year-old mom told her that if Trump and the daughter were both drowning, she (the mother) would save Trump first, and the daughter, second, if at all.
This is one of many stories people have DM’d me looking for help. 4/
Initially, it appeared to be an “addiction” to the outrage, anger, or fear.
But then I came across research explaining dopamine, which is related to the reward center of the brain, in terms of “subjective utility”. This got me thinking about confirmation bias: 5/
That the “addiction” wasn’t to the outrage/anger/fear.
Instead, the addiction was created by repeatedly receiving a dopamine reward every time their subjective beliefs (bias) were confirmed by Rush/Hannity/Tucker.
The anger/fear was the by-product of the addictive process. 6/
But, as I explained on the Lincoln Project podcast, this addictive process may have a second, compounding factor to it because….. 7/
….research has shown neuroanatomical regions associated with physically painful experiences exhibit increased activity when people experience social exclusion or separation (as explained in this thread about Qanon). 8/
As mentioned above, dopamine is related to the “reward system” of the brain, and is involved in the pleasurable experiences related to sex, gambling, etc.
Dopamine is associated with the high experienced with cocaine use/addiction.
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Similar to social exclusion/separation…..pain/discomfort avoidance is also a factor in certain addictions:
The “DTs” (delirium tremens) experienced by alcoholics who suddenly quit drinking....and opioid/heroin withdrawal.
"Relapse" provides relief from withdrawal symptoms. 16/
With this as a backdrop, it’s conceivable to conceptualize political tribalism (& perhaps even cultism), through an addiction model where there's a cocaine-like hit on the front end that pulls them in...
....and an opioid-like withdrawal that prevents them from pushing away. 17/
But there’s another important factor at play in this process that not only appears to contribute to tribalism, confirmation bias, but also conspiracy theory susceptibility, radicalization, and Qanon.
That factor: “anticipation”.
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Or, as Robert Sapolsky explains in this short video:
The power of “maybe”.
Watch this, and then keep reading:
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Now consider how anticipation affects the role dopamine plays in confirmation bias.
In this context, the dopamine hit isn’t experienced by having a correct opinion/belief (their bias being confirmed), the dopamine hit is experienced from the “anticipation” of being “right”. 20/
But all of this really gets interesting when viewed through the lens of dopamine optimization being tied to the 50/50 anticipation-to-reward ratio, because it would seem to have implications for radicalization and extremism:
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Since dopamine production/release isn't maximized by correctly anticipating the outcome 100% of the time…
.....in order to experience optimal dopamine production,...
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….people would need to constantly seek out new “sources” and new information that would consistently introduce "unanticipated"/unknown details, in order for them to have a heightened dopamine experience......because being 100% correct doesn't produce that.
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If someone watched/listened to FOX for years/decades, and had memorized the talking points….they would eventually be able to anticipate future narratives 100% of the time.
This would produce a limited dopamine experience, even though their biases are completely confirmed.
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However, when right wing news consumers then turn on OANN, Newsmax, Alex Jones, etc., and hear new fantastical details that are added to the mainstream right-wing narrative, these people's anticipation-to-reward ratio has now been disrupted.
And as Sapolsky demonstrated,…
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…..this disruption will cause dopamine spikes, which are optimized when people are not able to correctly predict or “anticipate” 50% of what they are being told.
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This creates an incentive structure where they are “rewarded” by continually seeking out more extreme, more radical, and more delusional information and narratives in order to continually maintain the optimum 50/50 anticipation-to-reward ratio.
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This process basically mirrors "tolerance" as seen in other forms of addiction, except that rather than building a tolerance to increased levels of an addictive substance, the individual builds a tolerance to the known (dis)information.
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And instead of having to increase the ingestion of an addictive substance to chase the “high”….. they need to continually increase the amount of new, un-anticipatable (dis)information.
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This results in people perpetually seeking out more delusional, more fantastical, and more conspiratorial information because, eventually, anything remotely factual has already been heard, and therefore can be “anticipated”.
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With this as a backdrop, it's easy to see how dynamic plays into Qanon and conspiracies theories.
As Sapolsky said, “’maybe’, is addictive like nothing else out there”.
“Maybe”, is the essence of conspiracy theories:
“Maybe, X is happening/occurring”
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The “anticipation” and the 50/50 optimization of dopamine production may explain why people aren't deterred when predictions, and the expectations created by those predictions, do not come true in cult situations or with Qanon.
Based on this model….
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..…the delusional, non-occurring predictions may actually reinforce belief in the conspiracy/cult because it supplies the necessary 50% miss rate needed for optimum dopamine production….
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....with the other 50% of perceived “accurately anticipated” events being the result of delusional subjective interpretations of events that create “false positive” confirmations:
This is a really interesting TedTalk on addiction. Applying it to the political climate, and viewing it through the lens of demonization/tribalism.....The obvious challenge we face as a country?........42/ ted.com/talks/johann_h…
...How to re-establish connection & strengthen "bonding"....when the incentive structure for many in the media, especially people like Tucker Carlson, is to create an emotional response that not only sabotages those bonds with fellow Americans, but also with family members? 43/
Follow up/related thread addressing dopamine-related illnesses such as Parkinson's/Schizophrenia, and the effect of exposing people with altered states of perception...either due to illness/disorder, or "self-medication"... to Qanon/conspiracy theories:
Some thoughts on the “constitutional crisis” of Trump inevitably defying Supreme Court orders, and thereby undermining the constitution’s separation of powers.
The most telling data point of what drives Musk is seen in this video when he preens, and does his shoulder shimmy after saying, “I’m not just MAGA….I’m dark gothic MAGA”:
Musk is desperately needy for validation, and to be “liked”.
Let's unpack...
1/
In 2019 I analyzed how Trump is actually a “pathological people pleaser” who punishes people he can’t “please”.
Trump is desperate for validation (narcissistic supply). He’ll often refer to himself as “your favorite president”, etc.
This desperate need is a major reason why he does so many rallies. The fragility of Trump’s ego causes him to vindictively punish people who reject, or don’t “like” him.
3/
As the Russia-Urkraine negotiations progress, it’s important to understand how Trump’s psychology, and Putin’s awareness of Trump’s psychological vulnerabilities, may factor into the outcome.
Remember, with Trump, it’s not about something actually occurring….it’s about the perception/appearance of it occurring.
For example:
1) Despite 6 bankruptcies, Trump created...with the help of a fictional reality TV show...the perception that he’s a great business man.
2/
2) In 2019, when Trump extorted Zelensky by threatening to withhold $400 million in congressionally approved aid to defend itself from Russia, Trump didn’t care about an actual investigation into Hunter/Joe Biden....
....he just wanted Zelensky to announce there was going to be one.
Trump just wanted to create the appearance/perception of corruption to influence the election.
But the same people condemning the manipulation of “well-meaning, faithful Christians into having their beliefs tethered to [antisemitic] psychopaths” (1:38)...
…are the same people who manipulated “well-meaning, faithful Christians into having their beliefs tethered" to a sociopathic narcissist......who is the antithesis of Christian values:
1/
And one of the same people (@jordanbpeterson) co-authoring this report about “well-meaning, faithful Christians having their beliefs tethered to [antisemitic] psychopaths”....
....also either incompetently....or dishonestly....manipulated “well-meaning, faithful Christians into having their beliefs tethered" to Trump....
2/
It should come as no surprise when people...
....who've been subjected to a decade of gaslighting, alternate realities, revisionist histories, and pathological dishonesty from Trump, and his legion of sycophants...
....are susceptible to being gaslighted into believing that Jews are the enemy?
3/
This was a very revealing, calculated meeting designed to characterize Zelensky/Ukraine as "deserving" of the "punishment" of an unfair deal that Trump/Vance are angling to give Putin.
The video starts with Trump claiming that he can’t speak negatively about Putin because it will undermine his role as a neutral mediator, and hamper negotiations.
However, that didn’t stop Trump from calling Zelensky a corrupt dictator.
At the :30 second mark, Trump says that Zelensky “has tremendous hatred” for Putin, and obligatorily points out that Putin is “not in love with” Zelensky, either.