Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 14, 2021 25 tweets 12 min read Read on X
This thread is another visit into the pyrrhic victory known as Operation Iceberg, the Apr 1945 invasion of Okinawa.

This thread is based on my Aug 2013 Chicagoboyz column "Technological Surprise & the Defeat of the 193rd Tank Battalion at Kakuzu Ridge"
chicagoboyz.net/archives/38455…
1/ XXIVth Corps 19 April 1945 situation map showing the 27th InThis is the wreck of a M4 Sherman tank on the approaches to
On 19 April 1945, the US Army’s 27th Inf Div launched an attack against the Kakuza Ridge position held by the 32nd Army on Okinawa with the 193rd Tank Btn's 30 tanks, S.P. assault guns, and attached armored flame throwers from the 713th Flame Tank Btn.
2/ This is a 713th Flame Tank Battalion M4 Sherman rebuilt as a
When the battle was over, 22 of the 30 AFV had been destroyed in a coordinated ambush by Japanese AT- guns, artillery, mortars & suicide close assault teams. Among the dead was the commander of the 193rd, on whom blame was laid for attacking without infantry in close support.
3/ This is a detailed Fire Plan Map of the Imperial Japanese ArThe commander of the 193rd TB had a great deal of faith in tThis is the description of the Sherman "backscratcher&q
After the catastrophe at Kakuzu Ridge, th 193rd TB was effectively disbanded & their remaining tanks were used as replacements by other US Army TBs.

This battle is referenced in most narrative account of Okinawa as proof of the tougher defenses US soldiers and marines
4/ Mines are not your friend.
...would face in an invasion of Japan.

It turns out that while this particular narrative has a great deal of truth, it isn’t the whole truth

Reversing Churchill, this narrative has a huge lie buried in a bodyguard of truth.
5/
The most important truth of this battle was that US troops suffered a technological surprise. The IJA were listening to the SCR-300, SCR-500 and SCR-600 series FM radios of US infantry, tanks and artillery forward observers at Kakuzu Ridge (& other battles through out the
6/
Pacific in 1945) with Japanese Type 94 (1934) Mark 6 walkie-talkie radio that was issued to every IJA Inf. btn.

US tanks were equipped with FM radios & their operators were told the IJA didn't have any FM gear & took no security precautions.
n-mmra.net/radio/94-6/94-…
7/
The poor performance of the 193rd Tank Btn on Okinawa at Kakuzu Ridge could be easily explained if that were the case.

So, serious charges require serious proof. Where's the proof?

"Show me the money!"

8/
This is the transcript of the 2005 PBS Show “Victory in the Pacific” that includes an interview of an Okinawan Student Conscript Katsuo Nagata who carried 10kg suicide bombs to Kakazu Ridge the night before the failed 193rd Tank Battalion/105th Infantry Regiment attack.
9/
So, the night before the 193rd TB's attack, the IJA independent 272th Inf Regt. knew US tanks were coming, check.

Where is the proof the IJA was using it's Type 94 (1934) Mark 6 walkie-talkie radio to monitor & exploit US Army radio communications?
10/
First let look at IJA radio via History of Technical Intelligence SWPA 1942 - 1945 Pg 90

"Lt Ford found that the Japanese type 97 portable wireless telephone set could receive signals clearly from US frequency modulated SCR-610 & SCR-300 sets at distances of 2300
11/
...to 3000 yards. This was important, as messages in the past had frequently been sent in the clear on these two sets. The 41st Division Signal officer, the G-2, and the Division artillery were given this information."

The capabilities of the type 94 walkie-talkie radio were
12/
...noticed in Luzon as well.

Intelligence bulletin. Vol III, No 12, Aug 1945 issue, noted that:

JAP WALKIE-TALKIE
Tests conducted with four Japanese Type 94 (1934) Mark 6 radios on Luzon reveal that it is possible for this amplitude modulated set to

cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/compoundob…
13/
...communicate with both the U. S. SCR-610 and SCR-608 FM sets. A small two-unit set of the Walkie-Talkie design, the Type 94 Mark 6 is standard equipment within the Japanese infantry battalion.

Results, of the tests show that the enemy sets operate satisfactorily with the

14/
...SCR-610 within a range of 1/4 to 1 & 1/2 miles, and with the SCR-608 within a range of 1/2 to 4 & 1/2 miles"

The article also detailed how to covert & maintain the IJA Walkie-Talkie with US Army batteries & vacuum tubes!

15/
So, the IJA had both radio means (link) & the motives. How do you prove the IJA about used its opportunities?

To understand this, you need to become familiar with the US Army vs USMC naming conventions for M4 Sherman main armament flame tanks.

lonesentry.com/manuals/handbo…

16/
The USMC called it's Iwo Jima M4 Sherman main armament flame tanks "C.B. Mk-1" AKA Construction Battalion Mark One.

Over the radio it was simply "Mark One"

17/
The US Army Chemical Warfare Service used a complicated designation that was more abused than used. It runs as follows:
Flamethrower, mechanized, main armament, CWS-POA "75" H1-H2

CWS - (see above)
POA - Pacific Ocean Area
"75" H-1 - See CB-H-1 Gun
H-2 - See fuel tanks
18/
Now we turn to IJA General Mitsuru Ushijima (same man both uniforms)

Ushijima issued 32D ARMY COMBAT DIRECTIVE No. 13. Which was captured, translated and reprinted in “Information on Japanese Defensive Installations and Tactics”, ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA.
20/
Ushijima directive (see text clips) came out after the US landings but before Marines used flame tanks in Southern Okinawa.

The 10th Army & XXIVth Corps Army units never called flame tanks "Mark One's"

So where was Ushijima getting "M-1" in DIRECTIVE No. 13 ?

21/
The only answer that works is that the IJA garrison on Iwo Jima heard USMC tank crew in the clear over their FM radios. Then the garrison there passed that information to Japan.

After reviewing IJA GHQ passed the intelligence to Gen Ushijima's 32nd Army staff.
22/
This brings up very difficult historical questions for the last year of the Pacific War starting with Navajo code talkers at Iwo Jima.

While they were a safe code there...

...they were not EVERY CODE at Iwo Jima.

23/
How many US Marine infantry attacks were anticipated by Lieut. Gen. Tadamichi Kuribayashi's garrison because they were listening to USMC tankers talking in the clear on FM radios they thought secure?
24/
No historical research on the last 12 months of ground warfare in the Pacific War that uses official American military histories can be relied upon. Extensive primary research on both any surviving Japanese and American military documents must be done with the idea
25/
...that low level American FM radio communications could and were monitored. Only then can you select items from the official histories for use.

“Trust, but verify” applies as much to military history as it does to nuclear arms control treaties.
/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 29
Regarding this:

>>The intensification of strikes against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war.

The 30 trains represent far more logistical tonnage than the trucks.

1/
Carrying capability 🧵
A Russian train with 30 box cars/wagons carries 1,800 to 2040 metric tons of cargo.

Per @grok Truck Equivalents for ~2,040 tons of cargo:

3-axle Kamaz tactical truck only (at ~13 t each): ~157 trucks (2,040 ÷ 13 ≈ 157). Range: 136–204 trucks depending on 10–15 t

2/ Image
4-axle Kamaz tactical truck only (at ~20 t each): ~102 trucks (2,040 ÷ 20 = 102). Range: ~82–127 trucks for 16–25 t

Mixed fleet (e.g., half 3-axle at 13 t, half 4-axle at 20 t): Roughly 120–140 trucks total

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
May 28
I called out the Chinese invasion requirements for Taiwan in May 2023 complete with a prediction they would have to be building satellite detectable 1944 invasion of Normandy Mulberry style infrastructure.

Chinese JLOTS req'ts link⬇️
x.com/TrentTelenko/s…

1/ x.com/johnkonrad/sta…
And this is the link to my prediction of what later became their "Corvis Mulberry" shore connectors.

The prototypes for which were under construction when I made my May 2023 prediction.

2/
In that thread I connected classic "irrational regime" Chinese 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' as a behavior indicator of how they would view the world wide maritime trade and financial collapse invading Taiwan would cause as advantageous to China.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
May 26
Ummm...no. @grok said 10K Truck Movements, not trucks.

A truck making two movements a day within 150 km of the Russian border for 30 days is 60 truck movements out of the 10K, or 0.6%.

@grok's estimate was based on mirror imaging Western Mechanized logistics.
Truck Intel🧵
1/
I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:

"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."

2/Image
And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:

"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."

3/Image
Read 10 tweets
May 25
This⬇️

>>In total, I have more than 100 mapped hits on russian logistical means.

...means a lot in terms of truck attrition.

100 killed out of a truck fleet of projected 2,500 on this route is 4% of the total.
1/
Ukrainian military intelligence estimated Kamaz made 15,000 trucks from Feb 2022 to early 2026.

Call that period 49 months, and that's a Truck production rate of 300 a month.

100 trucks killed in a couple of months is "normal wastage."


2/
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.

That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 23
This is another reminder that Peer-to-Peer drone warfare is all about attrition loss curves.

Ukraine's drones has made the roads of occupied southern Ukraine into an "anti-access area denial" (A2AD) kill zones for Russian trucks.
1/ Image
Ukraine has achieved "Drone air superiority" over those roads rivaling WW2's Summer 1944 Allied air superiority over German occupied Normandy.

As a result, the Russian truck fleet is taking unsustainable attrition, particularly of its fuel tanker fleet.
2/ Image
Image
Image
This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is causing panic:

"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol. This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea."
3/
Read 5 tweets
May 22
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.

This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.

A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵

1/
Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:

1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**

2/ Image
2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck

3/ Image
Read 19 tweets

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